AUKUS News, Views, Analysis.

siegecrossbow said:

Unless they purchase directly from the US, Australia is unlikely to field nuclear submarines in 3 to 5 years. Current estimate is that they will be able to manufacture them by 2040! That’s four successive change of governments. Who knows if they deal will survive even the budget talks.

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solarz said:

Unfortunately that's never going to happen. Western "democracies" are driven not by national interests but by capitalist interests. Though they may quarrel among themselves from time to time, and in this instance backstab each other, they will never lose sight of the fact that the success of the Chinese socialist model is an existential threat to them.

My prediction is that France will make some angry noises and then smooth things over.

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nlalyst said:

The PRC has been repeatedly shooting itself in the foot with its aggressive and selfish behavior in the SCS, antagonizing pretty much every country in the region.

As for the Filipinos, ask them why they feel the way they do about the Chinese, geopolitics notwithstanding. The Chinese coming to the Phillipines behaving like they own the place have gone a long way in tarnishing their country’s image.

Add to that, that historicaly, Chinese were never that liked to begin with, as they held a grossly disproportionate amount of wealth in the South East Asian countries they lived in.

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AndrewS said:

Well, I remember that it was Hilary Clinton that loudly made the announcement that the South China Seas was a core national interest for China.

The funny thing is, normally it's the Chinese foreign ministry putting out this sort of announcement.
Instead, it was Clinton broadcasting this to the world for days before any comment from the Chinese Foreign Ministry.
In Geoff Dyer's book, it's confirmed that Clinton "refreshed" her memory.

In the aftermath, look at how that move backfired on Clinton.
She thought China would fold and the other South China Seas claimants would flock to the USA for support and protection.
Instead, China owned the statement and built island bases which now dominate the South China Seas, without any reaction from the US.
And all the other countries in the SCS have taken note of this.

There's lots of other lessons here as well.

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nlalyst said:

The PRC has been repeatedly shooting itself in the foot with its aggressive and selfish behavior in the SCS, antagonizing pretty much every country in the region.

Click to expand...

AndrewS said:

Well, I remember that it was Hilary Clinton that loudly made the announcement that the South China Seas was a core national interest for China.

The funny thing is, normally it's the Chinese foreign ministry putting out this sort of announcement.
Instead, it was Clinton broadcasting this to the world for days before any comment from the Chinese Foreign Ministry.
In Geoff Dyer's book, it's confirmed that Clinton "refreshed" her memory.

In the aftermath, look at how that move backfired on Clinton.
She thought China would fold and the other South China Seas claimants would flock to the USA for support and protection.
Instead, China owned the statement and built island bases which now dominate the South China Seas, without any reaction from the US.
And all the other countries in the SCS have taken note of this.

There's lots of other lessons here as well.

Click to expand...

Overbom said:

Rumours say that is has been in secret negotiations for 18 months!!

Thats not just a simple mistake but plain treason/betrayal of France by its so-called "allies and partners"

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solarz said:

Unfortunately that's never going to happen. Western "democracies" are driven not by national interests but by capitalist interests. Though they may quarrel among themselves from time to time, and in this instance backstab each other, they will never lose sight of the fact that the success of the Chinese socialist model is an existential threat to them.

My prediction is that France will make some angry noises and then smooth things over.

Click to expand...

Bellum_Romanum said:

Then what the heck was the French intelligence if there's anything left doing? Have the French been so throughly americanized that the only French thing left about them is their language and their love of bagettes? Lol

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solarz said:

Unfortunately that's never going to happen. Western "democracies" are driven not by national interests but by capitalist interests. Though they may quarrel among themselves from time to time, and in this instance backstab each other, they will never lose sight of the fact that the success of the Chinese socialist model is an existential threat to them.

My prediction is that France will make some angry noises and then smooth things over.

Click to expand...