Ask anything Thread

[caohailiang]

I know this forum does not really allow discussion of that potential conflict, i respect that.

What i want to discuss however, is how the US elites are looking at this? The fact that there is a serious debate about whether it is winnable for US is interesting.

And if you look at even hardliner like Elbridge Colby is saying something like: it is winnable only if US military can laser focus on the right priority

 

[voyager1]

I know this forum does not really allow discussion of that potential conflict, i respect that.

This forum actually allows plenty of things. Just create your own thread, put up an appropriate title, under the appropriate section, and you can theorycraft all you want till the end of times with no issues. Just stay away from existing threads which are obviously there for another reason

 

[ougoah]

I know this forum does not really allow discussion of that potential conflict, i respect that.

What i want to discuss however, is how the US elites are looking at this? The fact that there is a serious debate about whether it is winnable for US is interesting.

And if you look at even hardliner like Elbridge Colby is saying something like: it is winnable only if US military can laser focus on the right priority

Those decisions aren't made by publicly disclosed Q&A sessions as much as one may believe in that being how their system functions. The US is not having serious public debate about this even if it seems like a few people are raising the topic. Their conclusions would be obvious anyway. Unless those involved in these discussions understand the full extent of US military capability and China's, they wouldn't have any means of arriving at well informed reasons and decisions.

Is PRC even really intending to invade the island? I have doubts. Even if such a strategy was winnable for PRC, they have very little reason to upset their upwards climb. Taiwan is not posing a military or economic threat. PRC has made the red line clear - US military in Taiwan (en masse or with intention to settle) and Taiwan declaring independence. If those aren't crossed (and they're reasonable conditions from PRC's perspective) then there is no point risking China's development and military to invade and retake the island when they could do it in years/decades time hopefully peacefully as PRC and ROC both continue to transform and hopefully converge even further. If that doesn't happen, at least PRC will have an even better military means of reunifying the country, which pushes towards peaceful reunification anyway... something some Taiwanese aren't actually that opposed to especially as China continues to progress. It's just not popular to express neutrality in Taiwan about this. It's like talking about certain things in the west where you gotta walk on eggshells and some unpopular opinions are very much socially unacceptable.

So for PRC, winnable is there but comes at the cost of who knows how much. For the US, it's a doubtful one whether it can stop the island from being reunified. Whatever it commits, the cost is unknown as well. Those who know the specifics won't be publishing the information or talking about it so openly.

 

[caohailiang]

Those decisions aren't made by publicly disclosed Q&A sessions as much as one may believe in that being how their system functions. The US is not having serious public debate about this even if it seems like a few people are raising the topic. Their conclusions would be obvious anyway. Unless those involved in these discussions understand the full extent of US military capability and China's, they wouldn't have any means of arriving at well informed reasons and decisions.

Is PRC even really intending to invade the island? I have doubts. Even if such a strategy was winnable for PRC, they have very little reason to upset their upwards climb. Taiwan is not posing a military or economic threat. PRC has made the red line clear - US military in Taiwan (en masse or with intention to settle) and Taiwan declaring independence. If those aren't crossed (and they're reasonable conditions from PRC's perspective) then there is no point risking China's development and military to invade and retake the island when they could do it in years/decades time hopefully peacefully as PRC and ROC both continue to transform and hopefully converge even further. If that doesn't happen, at least PRC will have an even better military means of reunifying the country, which pushes towards peaceful reunification anyway... something some Taiwanese aren't actually that opposed to especially as China continues to progress. It's just not popular to express neutrality in Taiwan about this. It's like talking about certain things in the west where you gotta walk on eggshells and some unpopular opinions are very much socially unacceptable.

So for PRC, winnable is there but comes at the cost of who knows how much. For the US, it's a doubtful one whether it can stop the island from being reunified. Whatever it commits, the cost is unknown as well. Those who know the specifics won't be publishing the information or talking about it so openly.

Elbridge Colby is former deputy assistant secretary of defense. Lyle Goldstein is Naval War College professor. I would not say they are completely outsider

 

[ougoah]

Elbridge Colby is former deputy assistant secretary of defense. Lyle Goldstein is Naval War College professor. I would not say they are completely outsider

They're not outsiders but they either don't know the full set of information or they aren't publicly disclosing them and forming public consumption literature based on any information that isn't available. Therefore their public talks and writings on this matter aren't going to be accurate indicators on how the US is thinking or what it plans/intends to do.

 

[Njamba Nene]

Hello there, is there any thread that is dedicated to the Taiwan scenario? Given the confluence of several events, taking Taiwan by force might be entering the realm of possibilities and i would like to stay on top of events as they happen and maybe review orbats. So does such a thread exist and is it allowed by forum rules? Any answer will be highly appreciated.

 

[Njamba Nene]

Those decisions aren't made by publicly disclosed Q&A sessions as much as one may believe in that being how their system functions. The US is not having serious public debate about this even if it seems like a few people are raising the topic. Their conclusions would be obvious anyway. Unless those involved in these discussions understand the full extent of US military capability and China's, they wouldn't have any means of arriving at well informed reasons and decisions.

Is PRC even really intending to invade the island? I have doubts. Even if such a strategy was winnable for PRC, they have very little reason to upset their upwards climb. Taiwan is not posing a military or economic threat. PRC has made the red line clear - US military in Taiwan (en masse or with intention to settle) and Taiwan declaring independence. If those aren't crossed (and they're reasonable conditions from PRC's perspective) then there is no point risking China's development and military to invade and retake the island when they could do it in years/decades time hopefully peacefully as PRC and ROC both continue to transform and hopefully converge even further. If that doesn't happen, at least PRC will have an even better military means of reunifying the country, which pushes towards peaceful reunification anyway... something some Taiwanese aren't actually that opposed to especially as China continues to progress. It's just not popular to express neutrality in Taiwan about this. It's like talking about certain things in the west where you gotta walk on eggshells and some unpopular opinions are very much socially unacceptable.

So for PRC, winnable is there but comes at the cost of who knows how much. For the US, it's a doubtful one whether it can stop the island from being reunified. Whatever it commits, the cost is unknown as well. Those who know the specifics won't be publishing the information or talking about it so openly.

sorry, i had just posted a question in this regard before i saw this post, given 2049 is the hard deadline, don't you think PLA will have to make its move earlier so as to give more time for pacification? Also XJ's statements about resolving the issue in the current generation, dont they carry some weight?

 

[Gatekeeper]

Hello there, is there any thread that is dedicated to the Taiwan scenario? Given the confluence of several events, taking Taiwan by force might be entering the realm of possibilities and i would like to stay on top of events as they happen and maybe review orbats. So does such a thread exist and is it allowed by forum rules? Any answer will be highly appreciated.

Any thread, except Taiwan miĺitary thread, on Taiwan is forbidden. It usually get get very overheated and quickly descend into chaos. As such, the Mods usually takes it down very quickly, and the guys that open this thread gets into very hit water with the Mods.

 

[Njamba Nene]

Any thread, except Taiwan miĺitary thread, on Taiwan is forbidden. It usually get get very overheated and quickly descend into chaos. As such, the Mods usually takes it down very quickly, and the guys that open this thread gets into very hit water with the Mods.

too sad.

 

[solman]

I didn't see that trend. It was always there. Women have often held serious military positions in the PLA and in Chinese government and corporate world. It is stupid not to have equality in a meritocratic society... at least one that strives towards being an ideal one.

China's systemic gender equality has been there since the revolution and overall it's one of the better countries out there. I know the usual suspects will try their hardest to create something out of nothing but that is their way.

Do people genuinely believe this? When I look at the leaders of China, both political and business, they seem overwhelmingly male. 5% or fewer of people at the highest levels (e.g. Politburo, Central Committee, General, CEO) are female, including a number of seemingly "token" representatives. High caliber women that I know who have lived in both China and the West (US and UK, really, due to my limited network) report intense sexism in China. Ten years ago I might have said that Chinese women have to choose between career success and raising a family, but the two women I know who stayed in China and chose the leadership track would (at least today) say that their sex is still holding them back (and both of them achieved their most rapid advancement outside of the PRC before returning).

Overall, I actually think that China does a better job than the United States at producing extremely high caliber women (from a career perspective), but that once they enter the Chinese workplace there is an overwhelming bias against recognizing their accomplishments and promoting them. Am I wrong?