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[paullaotzu]

Can I ask what is no doubt a silly question one way or another?

Within the last couple of years the US started basing their B-2s/B-21s (I can't tell the difference from looking) in the city where I live (Brisbane, Australia). My understanding is that these bombers would form a critical component of conventional strike against the mainland in the event of westpac HIC, so I think that means my city (or at least Amberley air field base) is now on a list of PLA aim points.

My question is, does the PLARF/PLAAF have conventional strike capabilities that could hit Brisbane, and does that seem plausible for them to actually do rather than targeting other closer bases? And if they do, do we know if the strikes would be precise enough that it's not that likely civilians in other suburbs will be hit?

Note: I asked this question in "PLA strike strategies for westpac HIC", but upon reflection I think maybe here is a better place for it because it's probably too silly (I especially think this because the only response I got was a laugh react). I don't know how to delete the original post, unfortunately.

Don't worry.

Information that may interest you:
Accuracy of DF-26: CEP ~30 meters.
Accuracy of CJ-20: CEP ~10 meters.

 

[Wrought]

Can I ask what is no doubt a silly question one way or another?

Within the last couple of years the US started basing their B-2s/B-21s (I can't tell the difference from looking) in the city where I live (Brisbane, Australia). My understanding is that these bombers would form a critical component of conventional strike against the mainland in the event of westpac HIC, so I think that means my city (or at least Amberley air field base) is now on a list of PLA aim points.

My question is, does the PLARF/PLAAF have conventional strike capabilities that could hit Brisbane, and does that seem plausible for them to actually do rather than targeting other closer bases? And if they do, do we know if the strikes would be precise enough that it's not that likely civilians in other suburbs will be hit?

Note: I asked this question in "PLA strike strategies for westpac HIC", but upon reflection I think maybe here is a better place for it because it's probably too silly (I especially think this because the only response I got was a laugh react). I don't know how to delete the original post, unfortunately.

While the requisite precision capabilities certainly exist in isolation, the actual choice will be subject to competing priorities the same way the actual result is subject to whatever soft/hard countermeasures deployed. Not really something you can predict in advance.

While historical records and interviews indicate that China struggled to produce sufficiently accurate missiles during the 1970s and ‘80s, the introduction of new technologies has vastly increased these capabilities, meaning that China is now fielding missiles with Circular Error Probables (CEP) of less than five meters.

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[4Tran]

Can I ask what is no doubt a silly question one way or another?

Within the last couple of years the US started basing their B-2s/B-21s (I can't tell the difference from looking) in the city where I live (Brisbane, Australia). My understanding is that these bombers would form a critical component of conventional strike against the mainland in the event of westpac HIC, so I think that means my city (or at least Amberley air field base) is now on a list of PLA aim points.

My question is, does the PLARF/PLAAF have conventional strike capabilities that could hit Brisbane, and does that seem plausible for them to actually do rather than targeting other closer bases? And if they do, do we know if the strikes would be precise enough that it's not that likely civilians in other suburbs will be hit?

Note: I asked this question in "PLA strike strategies for westpac HIC", but upon reflection I think maybe here is a better place for it because it's probably too silly (I especially think this because the only response I got was a laugh react). I don't know how to delete the original post, unfortunately.

It would only matter in a full blown shooting war. In such a conflict I doubt that a target so far away is going to be at the top of the target priority. The war would probably be long over by the time China gets to Brisbane.

Generally, I think that the US will give up once they can't safely get to the First Island Chain.

 

[bjj_starter]

Don't worry.

Information that may interest you:
Accuracy of DF-26: CEP ~30 meters.
Accuracy of CJ-20: CEP ~10 meters.

That's really reassuring, thank you. So probably fireworks as a worst case, but very unlikely to face any real risk of injury. Unless nuclear weapons are involved, of course.

 

[Heliox]

That's really reassuring, thank you. So probably fireworks as a worst case, but very unlikely to face any real risk of injury. Unless nuclear weapons are involved, of course.

Slightly less reassuring ...

As can be seen from Kiev and Tel Aviv, there is always the issue of collateral damage from

• spoofed or partial defeat missiles (but functioning warhead) landing way, way outside of normal CEP of intended target
• Debris from "defeated" missiles still causing kinetic damage where they land.
• discarded boosters or malfunctioning interceptors likewise cause (self-inflicted) damage.
• military value targets located in dense urban settings. It's hard to be surgical with a 500+ kg warhead.

Time to relocate to Tasmania really or protest the basing of non-Self Defensive assets in Australia and take it up with your Government.

 

[Dante80]

Time to relocate to Tasmania really or protest the basing of non-Self Defensive assets in Australia and take it up with your Government.

Or better still, stop worrying about silly things like that. China is not bombing Brisbane anytime soon, FFS...