American Economics Thread

[Sinnavuuty]

You have no clue what you're talking about in regards to the health care system.

One thing has nothing to do with the other. You can have overall expensive health care thats overvalued without any benefit in quality of life or health or life expectancy. That's a huge fallacy. The mayo and Hopkins can have over valued costs, but people go due to paying and getting things done quickly without waiting. Doesn't mean it's valued higher than it should be. A 3T MRI in the US can cost a thousand for non urgent cases, and you don't have wait but many can't afford it. In Canada it's free with a few month wait for non urgent cases, but everyone who needs it will get it.

The comparison of Canada is relevant, which demonstrates the contrast between the two countries on the same continent.

In 1950, US life expectancy was 68.1 years, while Canada's was 68.2 years - a difference of 0.1 years or 36 days, less than 1%. Since 1950, life expectancy in Canada has risen faster than in the US.

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. Since then, the difference in life expectancy between the two countries has only increased. In 2019, life expectancy in the USA was 79.1 years, while Canada's life expectancy was 82.4 years, a difference of three years. In 2021, life expectancy in Canada was 82.7 years, while that in the USA fell to 77.2 years.

In 1950, a Canadian lived 36 days longer than an American, today the difference is 5 years and six months, the difference has increased 50 times.

Despite being the country with the largest economy in the world and the richest, they have serious social problems, in all indicators: poverty, health, education, security... among others, Americans stand out negatively. Despite the high per capita income, the USA has indicators of a third world country, entering the level of an underdeveloped country.

 

[manqiangrexue]

YoY, U.S. economic growth now rises to 3.1%, compared to 4.7% for China.

What period are you comparing? I see 5.2% for China in 2023. Are are you doing micro-data by quarterly comparison?

The U.S. is only growing a little slower than China at this point, even though it's per capita GDP is 3.4x China's.

5.2/3.1=68% faster. That's a "little?" If you're 1.7 meters tall, then someone who is 2.86 meters tall, or 68% taller than you, is just taller by a "little," right? LOL

At these rates, it would take China 22 years (2046) to match the U.S. in GDP despite China having 4x America’s population

China's growing way faster and already a quarter over the US in PPP, which is what is important in building indigenous technology and national power and that's what gets the snowball rolling. When China's overall national power, which is undeniably growing much faster in America's in every way, eclipses American power, America loses many of its tools for global economic manipulation. Then, you're gonna see what America's incompetence really looks like in a fair setting compared to its peers.

By the way, fun fact, if the US manages to hold on to its lead until 2046, it will have held on for just over 100 years, about the length of a very average Chinese dynasty... but I don't think it will hold on till 2046 at all, do you?

 

[FriedRiceNSpice]

By the way, fun fact, if the US manages to hold on to its lead until 2046, it will have held on for just over 100 years, about the length of a very average Chinese dynasty... but I don't think it will hold on till 2046 at all, do you?

Why 2046? The US became the dominant economic and industrial power at least a half century before 1946.

 

[manqiangrexue]

Why 2046? The US became the dominant economic and industrial power at least a half century before 1946.

Counting it from the end of WWII when US dominance was displayed and globally accepted. I quoted a thing that estimated China's nominal GDP overtake of the US in 2046; that's where the number came from. I didn't make the date up.

 

[PopularScience]

Elon Musk warns ‘America is going bankrupt’ as interest payments on US debt ate up 76% of June’s income tax revenue​

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[FriedRiceNSpice]

Counting it from the end of WWII when US dominance was displayed and globally accepted. I quoted a thing that estimated China's nominal GDP overtake of the US in 2046; that's where the number came from. I didn't make the date up.

US became the top economic and industrial power before World War One.

Nominal GDP is a meaningless metric. In terms of real economic output and industrial output China has objectively surpassed the US already. On the other hand, I doubt China will surpass the US on a per capita basis by 2046. In terms of science and technology, I'd give a rough ball park estimate for China to achieve dominance roughly about a decade before 2046. Standard of living for the median Chinese may surpass that of the median American some time before 2046 as well.

 

[horse]

Here is US economic growth.

Bottomline, China is still growing about twice as fast compared to the US.

What is interesting, is that people expect the Fed to cut rates twice this year, beginning in September.

 

[Sinnavuuty]

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Elon Musk warns ‘America is going bankrupt’ as interest payments on US debt ate up 76% of June’s income tax revenue

Markus’ post included a screenshot of a headline reading, “Interest Payments on US National Debt Will Shatter $1,140,000,000,000 This Year – Eating 76% of All Income Taxes Collected: Report.”
He added a comment expressing his dismay: “I am glad 76% of the income tax I pay goes directly to important things like interest on past government incompetence.”
But just how severe is the financial situation? Let's take a closer look at the numbers.
‘Do they even care?’
The headline originated from an article on The Daily Hodl, which featured an analysis by economist E.J. Antoni.
Antoni, a research fellow in the Heritage Foundation's Grover M. Hermann Center for the Federal Budget, delved into the latest Monthly Treasury Statement from the Bureau of the Fiscal Service.
He pointed out a striking detail: in June 2024, the U.S. government spent $140.238 billion on interest for Treasury debt securities. For context, the government collected $184.910 billion in individual income taxes that same month.
This means that an amount equivalent to 76% of June's individual income tax revenue was used solely for interest payments on the national debt, not including principal repayment.
Antoni expressed his concern about America’s fiscal challenge in a post on X, writing, “Interest on the federal debt was equal to 76% of all personal income taxes collected in June - that's the Treasury's largest source of revenue and three-quarters of it gets consumed just by interest; does Congress know? Do they even care?”

 

[chgough34]

These are real GDP growth rates. They bear no relation to nominal GDP

NGDP is RGDP * inflation.

and project nominal GDP because any event that triggers a change in the currency market could massively impact a country's "GDP".

You can operate off an approximation that neutral rates are constant throughout time and that interest rate parity applies so long run exchange rates are stable. Alternatively, you could just use RGDP denominated in 2024 dollars and sidestep the exchange rate question entirely

 

[chgough34]

One thing has nothing to do with the other. You can have overall expensive health care thats overvalued without any benefit in quality of life or health or life expectancy.

If it was overvalued, why would anyone buy it? The only reason why individuals would pay lots would be because it contributes value to them and/or it is an inelastic product (which itself is evidence of value added)

That's a huge fallacy. The mayo and Hopkins can have over valued costs, but people go due to paying and getting things done quickly without waiting.

Being able to get things delivered quickly is delivering value.

Doesn't mean it's valued higher than it should be. A 3T MRI in the US can cost a thousand for non urgent cases, and you don't have wait but many can't afford it. In Canada it's free with a few month wait for non urgent cases, but everyone who needs it will get it.

Yeah the price mechanism vs. a queue are all just different ways to allocate scarce resources