American Economics Thread

CMP

Senior Member
Registered Member
@PiSigma

I wish you could work as a self-help guru for the Chinese community or the Mainland. I think many members here are also qualified.
There are enough super rich Chinese who get off on flaunting their success in the form of mentorship, advice (insincere or otherwise), or offers to "help" their less rich friends do even better. I would not recommend going out of your way to inflate an ego that is already pretty impressive. Least of all in a thread about the American economy. Pisigma's trumpeting of his own success and clear denigration of the unsuccessful (who are mostly just lazy human trash after all) was the start of an extremely bad tangent, and the mods will probably purge all this egotistical self-fellating nonsense.

Just as a last thought for those here who have a 7 figure or 8 figure net worth. If one would dislike for a 10 or 11 figure family fortune heir (who can easily spend their entire life living like a literal king) to look down on and denigrate one's station in life (classless and tasteless nouveau riche, etc.), it might be more karmically justified not to look down on those who can't seem to break out of a 6 figure net worth. Especially given most people in the world do not even have a six figure net worth.

Most poor people are not "just lazy". Low intelligence (which is just bad genetics), bad genetics (which is also just bad luck), bad parenting (also luck), being born into a really poor country (just bad luck), being born to a really poor family (just bad luck), and being inserted into a bad social/educational environment in childhood/adolescence (also just bad luck) are arguably the biggest factors. All arguably orders of magnitude more impactful than just work ethic (which is also just luck since you have to be raised in a certain way to value it). Just some ethical food for thought.
 
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Probably 80-90% of people in the West do not earn enough to pay off their mortgage in 7 years. Even if they could zero out all their expenses aside from the mortgage for the whole 7 years, they still would not be able to reach that goal. I think your expectations and standards of normality are extremely skewed by your own circumstances. I would bet money you live in a prosperity bubble and do not understand (or care to understand) the socioeconomic challenges experienced by that 80-90% of people.

I closely know a married couple that makes half a million a year in their Big Finance and Big Pharma professions. Even so, they openly understand that "hard work" alone is not enough for "most" people to "get ahead". It can take a combination of being genetically gifted, having good luck, being raised well with lots of positive role models in their family, AND being hard working (which some might argue is also heavily shaped by genetics and upbringing). Let's not forget that genetics and family upbringing are also a matter of luck.
I know many couples where both husband and wife work in big tech, with household incomes in the 500k range. For those that were not fortuitous enough to become homeowners before 2020 the problem is even affording to purchase a home, let alone being able to pay off a mortgage in x years. It absolutely requires some luck and fortune to become a first time homeowner in Seattle, New York, or Bay Area in the current market. I thank my lucky stars that I bought back in 2018 and locked in 3.25% APR, since otherwise I would still be renting.

Doesn't have to be big oil. Any industry if you work your way up to the top 1%, it's a big pay out. Those secretaries certainly don't make 200-300k a year. Buddy in pharmacy worked her butt off for 10+ years, bought the pharmacy for $5M. Once she pays that off, can easily make $1M a year. Also know a few doctors.
Hard work only gets you so far, maybe the top 5-10% but definitely not top 1%. No matter how hard I work and how much LC I grind I'm not going to be able to get into a top unicorn or hedge fund as a software engineer. Probably won't even ever be able to clear Google's interviews again.

Median US income is $60K. Median house price is $430,000. This is a public policy failure.
Do you know what the income to home peice ratio is in tier 1 cities in China? Home prices has outpaced income growth in the US for a while now, but the situation in US is still favorable to many other countries. Basically, although the housing situation has definitely been worsening over the past decade, it is still only trending towards the situation in most other countries.
 
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PiSigma

"the engineer"
I'm going to have to play devil's advocate here and highlight some of your biases. Your roofing company owner friend is one of only two that can make some special roof in Western Canada, etc. Not every hardworking roofer gets to learn how to make that specialty roof just by working very hard in roofing for a number of years. Certainly the number of hardworking roofers that never got the opportunity to learn how to do that vastly outnumbers your friend by at least the thousands.

By your own admission, there is also a decent chance a number of those hardworking roofers are more intelligent than your friend as well. You attribute his success entirely to hard work, when the luck to have the opportunity to learn that special roofing technique/design was almost certainly a bigger factor. I am sure many hardworking roofers do not get that opportunity. Survivorship bias on your part (though somewhat of a vicarious sort through the lens of assessing your friend). Even then, I am sure there were also roofers that lucked out in having the opportunity to learn that design/technique but couldn't pull together the starting capital for a company, or maybe managed to do it but were underbid by a competitor in the RFP process for a contract.

Likewise with your pharmacist friend who took a $5M loan (minus her principal) to buy the pharmacy. You attribute her success solely to busting her ass for 10+ years, but there are countless very hardworking pharmacists who spend over a decade in that career. Given what I know of the bell curve for pharmacists' (non-owners) income, I am highly skeptical that she managed to pull together the down payment she would need for that size of loan without receiving either some additional financial support from family (luck), or going for that loan during a time when the "price" of capital was very cheap (such as during a time when interest rates and down payment requirements were both extremely low). Also massive luck in timing.

This is all survivorship bias and I advise you to be aware. Just as an anecdote, the married couple (in their 30s) I mentioned are very honest and mindful about the advantages and massive luck they had. Her parents consist of a successful retired engineer that keeps getting pulled out of retirement to consult for big business, and retired head of a government news broadcasting corporation. Obviously raised very well, educated very highly, and with an insane work ethic that fit well with a big 4 finance consulting career before moving into buy side (asset management for massive pension funds, etc.). Also formerly worked for literally some of the most well known American and British banks you can think of in high end finance roles. Finished her CFA in the middle of her career so far. She went to a literal top ranked uni as a finance and accounting double major, and her parents funded her MBA at a top 10 ranked American business school. Again, hard work obviously played an important role, but also the luck of being born into the right family who could fund her education and teach her the importance of that work ethic to begin with. Good role models. And not to mention the genetics for high intelligence. That's luck too.

The husband was a STEM grad of a top 5 ranked American uni (Ivy League), openly acknowledging that he was blessed by his family genetics with a much higher than average intelligence, and much faster than average ability to pick up new, exotic, counterintuitive, and complicated concepts/problems. Started at the lab bench and worked up into program management. Both of them had to outcompete countless other hardworking and very intelligent people to land their admissions in uni, and land their roles at their companies. They would be wrong to name hard work as the key differentiator first and foremost, and thankfully they don't. You minmax your odds by taking as much luck and opportunity as you can get and combining that with as much smart work and hard work as you can. And even then, you will usually lose out to someone who was even smarter, harder working, luckier, or more than one of the above. For example, that top 5 or top 10 admission could easily have been a top 3, etc. That consulting, finance, and asset management career could've been in IB. That big pharma career could have been a medical or dental career with a clear pathway to starting a business.

There are plenty of people in the world with these kinds of success stories, but it's rare for people to openly acknowledge their own luck instead of chalking it all up to their own work ethic. Not surprising given how self-gratifying it is to underappreciate luck and overappreciate one's own ethical superiority. Survivorship bias is a fucking massive blindspot, and it's clear to me that you suffer from not understanding or appreciating what that is.
I went to a fairly generic engineering school (university of Alberta), not top tier like UofT or UBC. So unlike ur friends who had awesome parents and went to ivy league, didn't get those family support. Both myself and my wife paid our own way through school without family support by working in summers or during the year.

Genetically better than most in the intelligence department, for sure, which engineer isn't?

My roofer buddy went out of way to learn this new trade. He literally flew to Sweden on his own dime to learn it. The other thousands to roofers were content using asphalt tiles while my friend saved up and did an 1 year internship in Sweden.

My pharmacist friend didn't get help from family, because her parents been poor their whole lives. Dad was in and out of unemployment for most of her teenage years and mom made almost nothing.

I don't have survivor bias, me and my friends just understand how to look for niche skills and would be in demand.
 

PiSigma

"the engineer"
There are enough super rich Chinese who get off on flaunting their success in the form of mentorship, advice (insincere or otherwise), or offers to "help" their less rich friends do even better. I would not recommend going out of your way to inflate an ego that is already pretty impressive. Least of all in a thread about the American economy. Pisigma's trumpeting of his own success and clear denigration of the unsuccessful (who are mostly just lazy human trash after all) was the start of an extremely bad tangent, and the mods will probably purge all this egotistical self-fellating nonsense.

Just as a last thought for those here who have a 7 figure or 8 figure net worth. If one would dislike for a 10 or 11 figure family fortune heir (who can easily spend their entire life living like a literal king) to look down on and denigrate one's station in life (classless and tasteless nouveau riche, etc.), it might be more karmically justified not to look down on those who can't seem to break out of a 6 figure net worth. Especially given most people in the world do not even have a six figure net worth.

Most poor people are not "just lazy". Low intelligence (which is just bad genetics), bad genetics (which is also just bad luck), bad parenting (also luck), being born into a really poor country (just bad luck), being born to a really poor family (just bad luck), and being inserted into a bad social/educational environment in childhood/adolescence (also just bad luck) are arguably the biggest factors. All arguably orders of magnitude more impactful than just work ethic (which is also just luck since you have to be raised in a certain way to value it). Just some ethical food for thought.
Those who flaunt their wealth are the working poor. Real rich people still drive their 2006 Honda civic to work (me). Because all our money is saved up and invested. Dumb people buy LV bags and Dior to show off money they don't have.
 

chgough34

Junior Member
Registered Member
US GDP growth was 2.8% on a Q/Q SAAR annualized rate in the 2nd quarter of 2024, all the more remarkable given that inflation was substantially lower in 2Q24

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the tight US labor market has simulatously caused greater working from home (and thus making labor search markets more efficient since employers are able to look for talent nationally instead of within particular regions and workers are able to find nationwide opportunities), a permanent shift in the U.S. labor market to more capital formation fields as workers shift to high paying growth generating fields


and firms invest in greater amounts of automation, software, and other capital investments in response to the tight labor market, resulting in permanent increases in productivity.

clearly, prior estimates of non-inflationary US trend growth as sub-2% are outdated in a world of tight labor markets, AI, and work from home.
 

chgough34

Junior Member
Registered Member
This guy never got a mortgage before. Just shows you he knows nothing.

If someone is in an open mortgage then their monthly payment will just go to servicing their interest with the high rates. If it's a closed interest, still got to renew after it expires after whatever their term is. So all those that had 2% locked in 5 years ago need to go to 5% now, good luck paying off that capital.
The U.S., due to the creation of the government sponsored enterprises, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, in the 1930s and 1980s respectively from the Federal National Mortgage Assocation Charter Act, overwhelmingly have fixed rate mortgages since Fannie and Freddie turn mortgages into effective 30-yr treasuries with prepayment risk/a call option (
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)
 

gadgetcool5

Senior Member
Registered Member
US GDP growth was 2.8% on a Q/Q SAAR annualized rate in the 2nd quarter of 2024, all the more remarkable given that inflation was substantially lower in 2Q24
YoY, U.S. economic growth now rises to 3.1%, compared to 4.7% for China.

The U.S. is only growing a little slower than China at this point, even though it's per capita GDP is 3.4x China's.
 

chgough34

Junior Member
Registered Member
What do you mean property taxes, insurance costs, and cost of moving to another home doesn't have an impact? Have you ever lived in a house in the US?
Yeah: they for the most part, don’t have an impact. Property taxes and insurance are explicitly included in the CPI and the costs of moving are mostly irrelevant since internal migration is rare and infrequent.
Home prices have vastly out stripped increases in rent, CPI, wages, and just about everything else.
Yes: that’s how the cpi works. It’s an average. Some things will be above the average, some things will be below. None of that detracts from the original point - renters and new home buyers are a minority, the overwhelming majority of households have fixed mortgage payments forever
I don't even know what you're trying to argue. You're clearly not being objective as the facts are opposite of what you claim. Is it that hard to say "yes, real estate inflation is a serious problem for Americans and isn't captured in CPI?" Even Democrat talking heads who worship Biden are willing to admit that.
No. Inflation overall is a problem that’s done and dusted. Even the most hawkish Fed in a generation is now cutting rates. That doesn’t mean; however, that there are substantial costs concentrated in a small group of first time homebuyers (not even renters anymore) that deserve policymaker attention but those attendant problems have safely moved from macroeconomic policy to microeconomic policy
Americans' purchasing power is being destroyed by real estate inflation, as new house holds increasingly find themselves incapable of purchasing a home, while old house holds find themselves unable to move homes. Everyone is ultimately affected by homes not being affordable, as every historical property bubble has resulted in an economic catastrophe.
Their purchasing power is not being “destroyed”; housing is quite literally part of the CPI which is now trending at a little sub 2.5% Y/Y
 
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