American Economics Thread

valysre

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so there is no chilling effect on thought or teaching
I would like to say that I believe that the general social acceptance of the arrests sends a clear message that even without government-directed oppression of speech, there is a decent chunk of individuals who will believe that their beliefs are no longer socially acceptable to voice. It is not governmental censorship that is the issue so much as it is social self-censorship.

and haven’t disrupted universities since.
Not the SAT, but the GRE. But it does address the point of university disruption. I know a few professors of mathematics-intensive physics disciplines who were requested by their departments and universities to drop GRE requirements, or not consider the GRE as significantly. The result was a number of graduate students who made very interesting errors quite regularly, such as (a + b)(a + b) = a^2 + b^2, and (a + bi)(a - bi) = a^2 + 2abi + b^2.
While not immediately relevant to the issue of SAT scores and what I perceive to be declining performance amongst undergraduate students in the US, it does suggest that the disregarding of testing performance in admission criteria might have some impact on the performance of universities.

accumulated technology (code bases
This assertion on code-base accumulation is a very dangerous assertion to make. The most significant code that exists today is either open source (Linux, Minix, RISK V architecture), or frankly worse than Chinese code (various social media backends). The only real exception to this are the UNIX forks of IBM (AIX, used by institutions who rely on IBM's promise of backwards compatibility for their code that was written in the 1980s) and Apple (macOS, only really used by consumers), and some of the cloud infrastructure built by Amazon (which is being quickly matched by Chinese capabilities). The point is: US software advantage is much shakier than it may appear from the outside.
I agree with the assertion that industrial knowledge accumulation is a significant advantage, but I do want to point out that there isn't really anyone around to employ the accumulated industrial knowledge in fields that count. An example of this are the labor shortages at US shipyards.

U.S. will still be incredibly wealthy (particularly on a GDPPC basis)
I do not like the usage of any GDP measurements to measure a nation's prosperity. I'd prefer to look at median purchasing power, but I'm not sure how those statistics look for US v China.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Nah. It really isn’t. The protestors are being arrested for conduct, not speech (including either teaching or research) so there is no chilling effect on thought or teaching. University sociology, anthropology, history, and PoliSci departments are as being free-wheeling liberals as they’ve ever been. It’s also just off topic. The original topic was on macro-econometric models: those were not being developed in China in the 1960s and 1970s because the universities were closed; and there is nothing analogous to the cultural revolution that will stop academic research on macro-econometric models in the U.S.
Yeah, it's really the same or worse in the US. Worse because it's 2024, not 60 years ago, the same in that the conduct is free speech. No professor or student can hold a sign calling for the end to Israel's genocide without fear of repercussions to their current standing or their ability to find future employment. It's instilling a culture of fear and the response is the people not caring to put work to advance the environment that suppresses them.
Much the same thing - see Table 6 on page 52 of the IMF report -
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Like I said, Western economists are either wrong, unable to agree with each other to form a useful consensus, or try to build their reputation with obvious things. You point to this source, I can find 10 that say China can't avoid a hard landing. Somebody's always right and someone's always wrong. After it passes, just pretend you were in the former, not the latter.
Not really - the SAT getting easier (even if true) is not evidence of declining achievement.
They like to make the tests easier because the kids are doing too well, right? Set a record score LOL
The removal of testing requirements was done due to COVID (when testing centers were difficult to access) and haven’t disrupted universities since.
LOLOL You ain't blaming COVID on this one. California's system has been doing this completely independently and will extend to far beyond the time when COVID is over.
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I’ve already addressed “mass failures in mathematics” as not being time-series evidence, but you have some other scattershot evidence of “test scores low = disaster” dating to 1983 and A Nation At Risk (
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The funny thing is that you think that a failure like this can be addressed, that it's defensible. And that is the American attitude towards failure. If this was China, I would be without words, only shame.
Failing? It’s impossible say - standardized testing wasn’t a thing in the 1960s and 1970s. But it’s easily inferable that educational quality was worse in the 1960s and 1970s - especially urban districts, due to funding inequalities, school desegregation fireworks and protests (or explicitly segregated school districts), non-enforcement of truancy laws, redlining, among others.
Ah I see, this is another example of great progress LOL.
The original poll question that Dr. Burge posted on Twitter was ever use. Since those are in effect, the same in both countries (for “ever use”), you are now arguing the severity is different, which while true, is both not what was 1) originally argued (“US youth cohorts are doing better than before”) and 2) your retort (“I can’t imagine this would ever happen in any country”). Whatever the Chinese version of the YRBS may be,
Well then Dr. Burge's poll is simply not meaningful enough. I posted meaningful data. Did you see or did you get dazed by all the charts?
I’m not familiar with it so the comparisons across space are going to be quite random.
No, that you're not familiar with it has nothing to do with randomness. They are well-structured with decisive results... which you're know if you could read charts.
Also, China having a good education system is not exclusive to the U.S. also having a good education system. Economic growth is not a zero-sum game.
It's a competition of how much of the global pie one can take and that has implications on the talent one can attract and employ. That talent creates technology, which is a race. The winner makes the loser obsolete.
No. US-born STEM talent is the super majority of US STEM workers (as they’ve always been), and the U.S. is now producing more STEM bachelor degree holders than ever before. A supermajority of US STEM PhD holders are US-born as well; and to the extent there is the ~0.1% of the workforce that is the “PhD holder that works in CompSci research” - there are once again, multiple economic explanations that are much more credible (substantial lost earnings from a PhD, PhD wage premiums not being that large, and not wanting to move after already being settled in a metro area with both professional/social networks that will be lost, and selection effects from the 1965 INA that isn’t been updated since) than “there aren’t a few hundred US-born CS BS earners each year who aren’t capable of earning a PhD”.
We did this before; you showed a study that included every person who mops the floors and cleans the test tubes as a STEM personel and the higher the standards got, the lower the US homegrown talent there was. And you said, "Awww, that's just a small percent." And I said, "Yeah, the small percent at the top are the main drivers of innovation; unfortunately for you, we don't count lab janitors as top STEM talent just to even things out.
It’s also besides the point - whatever deleterious effect did exist, it didn’t prevent the 1980s graduating class from managing and being directly responsible for a large sustained period of innovation
The managing part is true, but managers are not directly responsible; the scientists they manage are directly responsible. They are indirectly responsible. Americans use thier post WWII finance system to put their useless management and business grads on top of high quality foreign scientists. Once the foreign scientists component is weakened, what does that result in? A room full of managers with no scientific background. Good luck innovating with that.
Since this seems to be your particular hobby horse- China is likely to grow at a 4-5% rate for the next 2 decades, the U.S. at a slightly sub-2% level, and China will be a larger economy in NGDP by the mid-2030s and substantially larger than the U.S. by the mid-2050s. Even with that said, the U.S. will still be incredibly wealthy (particularly on a GDPPC basis) and have market-leading firms in every sector (as will China; albeit from catch-up) due to accumulated capital deepening, experience-related human capital, and accumulated technology (code bases, industrial designs, etc).
... That is good. I don't argue just to argue. That's realistic and I've not nothing to pick against that. If that's your main thesis on the Sino-American dynamic, we don't have any fundamental disagreement. I've told other people on here that the US ain't gonna rot itself to death; we're gonna have to haul ass and put pedal to the metal to beat 'em at their full strength.
 

chgough34

Junior Member
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Yeah, it's really the same or worse in the US. Worse because it's 2024, not 60 years ago, the same in that the conduct is free speech. No professor or student can hold a sign calling for the end to Israel's genocide without fear of repercussions to their current standing or their ability to find future employment. It's instilling a culture of fear and the response is the people not caring to put work to advance the environment that suppresses them.
No, lol. Outside of a handful of attention-seeking firms (Davis Polk, etc), the small minority of protestors will hold signs, march, go back to their social lives in college, graduate, and work for a middle-market firm (as they’ve always done and always will). And of course, what you’ve pointed here isn’t a government restriction on speech - social desirability bias is not imposed by the government. All of this is besides the point though - there are no government barriers on teaching or research for universities on any topic or on any viewpoint, and especially none for macroeconometric models (and to the extent there are restrictions - none come anywhere close to closing all universities and stopping all teaching and research for a decade)
Like I said, Western economists are either wrong, unable to agree with each other to form a useful consensus, or try to build their reputation with obvious things.
The IMF is as mainstream macro as you get and they’ve been consistently correct on gdp growth rates for decades. Media clickbait is clickbait (especially when it’s often given as hedged probabilistic language). There’s a clear difference in the quality of the source
They like to make the tests easier because the kids are doing too well, right? Set a record score LOL
No. They could make the tests easier (even assuming they’ve gotten easier) to make more people take the tests or make the tests be more palatable to a greater audience (esp. as a number of states have opted to give the test everyone graduating high school).


LOLOL You ain't blaming COVID on this one. California's system has been doing this completely independently and will extend to far beyond the time when COVID is over.
Yes. Universities mostly opted out of the SAT during COVID and then realized it wasn’t creating bad outcomes so they continued the policy of being test-optional. Your sources are directly on-point to that point.
The funny thing is that you think that a failure like this can be addressed, that it's defensible. And that is the American attitude towards failure. If this was China, I would be without words, only shame.
Can the failure be addressed? Yes. Educational outcomes have broadly improved over time. And if China is the proper comparison (it’s not for multiple reasons) - you’ll find similar unfavorable outcomes from adversely selected regions of China (
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Ah I see, this is another example of great progress LOL.
Yes: decreases in residential segregation and more equal funding of school districts in the decades that have followed is indeed progress. As well as the growth of standardized testing requirements that have made educational outcomes actually measurable. Your question was whether such bad failures were happening in the 1960s and 1970s, and while not directly measurable, every indicia points to the answer being an unambigious
Well then Dr. Burge's poll is simply not meaningful enough. I posted meaningful data. Did you see or did you get dazed by all the charts?
It was one question, consistently asked for decades on the YRBS. My point was to show a time-series, not a moment in time.
No, that you're not familiar with it has nothing to do with randomness. They are well-structured with decisive results... which you're know if you could read charts.
No. Randomness in the risk factors being studied, the exact questions of what is being measured, among others. Tobacco use and alcohol use are clearly more severe in the U.S. but the point was it’s a random collection of risk factors that’s the topic of discussion.
It's a competition of how much of the global pie one can take and that has implications on the talent one can attract and employ. That talent creates technology, which is a race. The winner makes the loser obsolete.
Individuals can’t eat market shares and technological laggards still get spillovers from technological leaders. So it’s still, not a zero-sum game.
We did this before; you showed a study that included every person who mops the floors and cleans the test tubes as a STEM personel and the higher the standards got, the lower the US homegrown talent there was. And you said, "Awww, that's just a small percent." And I said, "Yeah, the small percent at the top are the main drivers of innovation; unfortunately for you, we don't count lab janitors as top STEM talent just to even things out.
Graduate degree holding STEM workers are supermajority US-born and this even ignores multiple reasons, unrelated to ability, for why foreign-born individuals are overrepresented in doctoral degree holders which include

1. Substantial immigrant under-matching in employment due to employer unfamiliarity, cultural unfamiliarity and language barriers
2. Various educational requirements for legally staying in U.S. that do not apply for citizens
3. Opportunity costs (lost wages, lost professional connections, etc) associated with pursuing graduate degrees that are substantially lower for immigrants
4. Having social/professional/family networks in home metro areas that would cease to have value if individuals moved to a different metropolitan area for graduate degrees
5. less of a need U.S.-born individuals to signal their capabilities with a degree since they have existing networks that can land them employment, without degrees.

The entire premise is somehow that for the ~2% US undergraduate degree earners that end up pursuing PhDs, the performance scale is so discontinuous that the the 95-97th percentile of individuals will not be able to pursue a PhD. It’s quite ridiculous; especially since there is no such discontinuity anywhere else - whether of US firms, metropolitan areas, or municipal governments.

There are a substantial number of U.S. software publishers and tech companies which are globally competitive and have their employees concentrated in geographies without many PhD holders - ex. Fiserv (Brookfield, WI); Citrix (Ft. Lauderdale, FL); Snowflake (Bozeman, MT); Micron Tech (Boise, ID); Cerner (Kansas City, MO); Global Payments (Atlanta, GA) -> all of which point to suggesting US STEM talent is broadly geographically distributed and abundant for producing competitive firms.
The managing part is true, but managers are not directly responsible; the scientists they manage are directly responsible. They are indirectly responsible.
Even assuming it’s true (it’s not) - US PhD earners in the 1990s were supermajority U.S.-born (esp. in mechanical engineering/chemical engineering/biology for the oil field, biotech, etc innovation) management itself is critical for firm success and/or failure (
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Americans use thier post WWII finance system to put their useless management and business grads on top of high quality foreign scientists. Once the foreign scientists component is weakened, what does that result in?
Record H1-B and immigration backlogs and the largest number of STEM degrees ever issued (both numerically and as a percentage of the birth cohort)?
 
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MortyandRick

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The US High School Class of 1980 is now 60 and entering near their retirement age, and they presided over the U.S. turning into an net oil exporter due to oilfield technologies, sustained U.S. leadership in Silicon Valley, the broad IT-ification of all kinds of businesses, and an unprecedented growth in services sector productivity, among others. They are fine and clearly received substantial human capital development.

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27% of Americans 59 and older have no savings.

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Only the white male educated boomers have enough savings. Minorities, women or those without college degrees do not, but I guess they don't count.
 

chgough34

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Only the white male educated boomers have enough savings. Minorities, women or those without college degrees do not, but I guess they don't count.
The median person 55+ has a net worth of 400K (
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) as well as a lifetime of fixed perpetual income from social security with a median income of ~$84K (
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By and large; elderly cohorts are doing well, but as you do point out, there are a large minority of individuals that are doing poorly (elderly individuals with no retirement savings on their own balance sheets tend to be low-income but they will receive near full income replacement with social security). This is not about whether they “count” or not but why they are doing poorly. And since they are largely doing poorly because they have medical issues, are disabled or foreign-born individuals with low education and limited English proficiency - they do indeed deserve fiscal transfers and help but it also means their financial distress is systemic and cannot be reflective of macroeconomic conditions (they would be poor under any set of macroeconomic conditions) or of education in the U.S. (either because more education wouldn’t increase their income and/or because they didn’t receive their education in the U.S.).
 

MortyandRick

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And since they are largely doing poorly because they have medical issues, are disabled or foreign-born individuals with low education and limited English proficiency -
Wait so you're saying that all Americans who are not doing well are one of those groups of marginalized ppl? That's a pretty damning assumption to make to support your points. Fact of the matter is that there's plenty of minorities who are not one of the groups you mentioned and women who are not doing as well. So you can't blame statistics on immigrants and medical illnesses.

The median person 55+ has a net worth of 400K (
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That's not impressive for net worth at that age. That's net worth, not spendable money. Especially with current inflation, means there is a substantial portion of vulnerable older people.
 

chgough34

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Wait so you're saying that all Americans who are not doing well are one of those groups of marginalized ppl?
For the most part - yes -
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That's not impressive for net worth at that age. That's net worth, not spendable money. Especially with current inflation, means there is a substantial portion of vulnerable older people.
They are old so they can easily sell their house and move into an apartment, and of course, they’ll have social security payments (with inflation-adjusted payments).

Even if they spend no principal

400K generating a 5% in interest (from either treasuries or utility stock dividends) or 20K + 24K in Social security is 44K a year which just covers their expenses - an average single person household spends 44K a year (
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TOKYO DRIFT ABC

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美国过去两年的名义GDP增长涨了将近20个点,这哪是低增长?美国过去两年造出“七巨头”这样的巨型公司,市值 2.3万亿美元的公司,这根本不是低增长。
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It is interesting that a prominent economist from Tsinghua University, an FPC member of the PBOC, stresses that the US economy is doing well. The Internet is littered with words like the U.S. economy and society are facing an apocalypse, but this is not the reality. We should be aware that it is a mirror of the fools who claim that China will begin to collapse today or has already done so.
 

vincent

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It is interesting that a prominent economist from Tsinghua University, an FPC member of the PBOC, stresses that the US economy is doing well. The Internet is littered with words like the U.S. economy and society are facing an apocalypse, but this is not the reality. We should be aware that it is a mirror of the fools who claim that China will begin to collapse today or has already done so.
Debt-laden 'zombie' companies around the world

An AP analysis of the world's largest economies found 7,000 publicly traded 'zombie' companies-- those whose earnings from operations weren't enough to pay even the interest on their loans for three straight years.
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