American Economics Thread

chgough34

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The fundamental premise of capital markets is that corporate capital projects need funding today and will generate cash flows in the future but corporates do not have the cash they need today. Investors who put up the cash in various debt and equity instruments thus get a claim on the future cash flows - investors benefit because they get more money in the future than they get today, corporates benefit because they get capital projects they want funded

There are *no* restrictions on co-ops in the United States - they simply fail to scale well because they cannot access equity capital and debt capital is substantially more restrictive
 

Index

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No, lol. Most firms in China are not worker cooperatives. They are for-profit firms accountable to a shareholder elected board.

Is this why the CSRC has implemented a lot of regulations and policies to deepen the importance of the SSE and SZSE to the economy?
How many percent of the Chinese economy is the stock market? That answers your whole question.
“Inevitably” not innovative as Microsoft and Nvidia clearly demonstrate. /s
Finding 2 (old mind you) decent performing companies in the 2nd largest economy isn't the gotcha you think it is. Even India has Adani...

What is the growth rate of the whole US economy? What is the wage growth relative to inflation? That is lack of development. No different than Brazil or India.

China is still moving along at a comfortable 5% growth. The larger your economy, the more gains you make when you grow it by a percentage. Of course this is true to a lesser extent for America too, but they are not growing at 5% are they?
 

chgough34

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How many percent of the Chinese economy is the stock market? That answers your whole question.
Not sure what you mean, but in any country, the share of firms listed is very small. Market cap/GDP is ~100% in China and ~200% in the U.S.
Finding 2 (old mind you) decent performing companies in the 2nd largest economy isn't the gotcha you think it is.
I mean - Applied Materials, KLA, Lam Research, Cadence Design Systems, Synopsys, Alphabet/Google, Facebook/Meta, Adobe, Apple, Tesla, Pfizer, Moderna, Eli Lilly, AbbVie, Abbott Laboratories, Caterpillar, Dow Chemical, DuPont, GE Aviation, Corning, etc, etc. If being listed was inherently antithetical to being innovative, there are too many innovative listed firms for this to make any sense.
What is the growth rate of the whole US economy? What is the wage growth relative to inflation?
Around ~2% annually for both. It’s a doubling of living standards around every 30 years.
China is still moving along at a comfortable 5% growth. The larger your economy, the more gains you make when you grow it by a percentage. Of course this is true to a lesser extent for America too, but they are not growing at 5% are they?
Yeah: China has a per capita GDP of 12K and the United States has a per capita GDP of 70K. GDPPC and growth rates are strongly negatively correlated since gains from capital deepening and technological catch-up are diminished (as evidenced by none other than China itself as its growth rates are substantially lower than in the 2000s and 2010s).
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
It is simply a fact that universities in China stopped operating during the cultural revolution and sent the professors to the countryside to work from the 1960s-1970s (which is when large macroeconometric models began to really take form). There wasn’t even a gaokao. Biden is not demanding all universities close or calling for a repeal of the 1965 Higher Education Act so I don’t have any comparable “logic”.
Yeah, that happened during the cultural revolution... Apparently, the US is going through yours now. Protest against Israeli genocide in a university and watch what happens to you. We got out from that situation decades ago; how's the US going to get out from its problem of parasites burning up/hijacking its institutions from inside? Got a plan?
China’s growth from 1978-present has been capital deepening and technological catch-up and as the easy hanging fruit has been picked, Chinas gdp growth rate has predictably slowed substantially and is on the same glide path as the rest of the Asian tigers.
That's the trend of all countries that can move out of a fast and dirty phase into a high tech phase, though I wouldn't call it predictable unless you were talking from a Chinese perspective. The term, "hard landing" was all the hottest craze in the Western economic circle when discussing China. Anyway, the main differences between China and the tigers is 1. tigers were intent being one link of a foreign tech chain while China does not allow any other country to control its key tech industries and 2. China is huge while tigers are tiny. You can make fun of an ant for being a little insect loser but if you find yourself staring at a 6 foot ant (not to mention one that is 4 times your size), you have about as much of a fighting chance as a double bacon cheeseburger in the last week of an American fat camp.

younger US cohorts are substantially better educated and healthier than young people from previous cohorts
I'm sorry but for those who can't read charts, this says nothing about education, but the need to drop the difficulty level of the SATs does say alot about declining education standards. And also, was it prevalent in the 60's an 70's for all the students of entire schools in multiple districts in urban areas to fail math? Is the current situation in the US also an improvement over something even more horrifying?
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Anyway, congratulations(?) for having just over half of high schoolers drink and 1/6th smoke. Sorry, I come from an education-oriented well-to-do country so I can't even imagine a place where that's an improvement over something or a place where 92% of the kids drink and 76% smoke. As a counter to your educational decline, this is certainly a step ahead, although I wonder why (not really) when anyone mentions a country addicted to drugs, everyone in the world thinks USA (to be fair, I think Austalia as well).
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chgough34

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We got out from that situation decades ago;
1. There’s an obvious difference between arresting a handful of individuals compared to closing all the universities for a decade (a point which no one has disputed).
2. The U.S. has been politically restrictive on liberal campus protestors for decades now - Students for a Democratic Society, Kent State, the Iraq War protests, and the Gaza Protests - treating it as something new or a cultural revolution is lulz. They will resolve the way they’ve always resolved - the children of upper-middle income professionals will graduate, get a job, enter the middle class, and their political activism impulses will die down, as they always have.
That's the trend of all countries that can move out of a fast and dirty phase into a high tech phase, though I wouldn't call it predictable unless you were talking from a Chinese perspective.
It’s absolutely predictable. There are diminishing returns to physical capital. Regardless of the size of the economy, those patterns still persist so with a higher gdppc, gdp growth slows. China is larger so its economy will almost inherently be more complex and diversified but that doesn’t detract from the original point - China’s growth from 1978 on afterwards was due to physical capital deepening/formation and technological catchup - and both of those will predict declining growth rates with higher gdppc.
I'm sorry but for those who can't read charts, this says nothing about education, but the need to drop the difficulty level of the SATs does say alot about declining education standards.
Right. It wasn’t on topic but increasing educational attainment is well documented - higher graduation rates which reflect greater human capital attainment -
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,
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. Similarly, high school course rigor has increased a ex. in 1990, 7% of calculus course taking and in 2010, 16% of calculus course taking; for chemistry, 51% to76%, and for physics, 23% to 40% (
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).

And also, was it prevalent in the 60's an 70's for all the students of entire schools in multiple districts in urban areas to fail math?
Yes. Urban areas in the U.S. are and have been adversely selected due to redlining and white flight - it’s almost by definition where the worst outcomes will be concentrated, and especially in the 60s and 70s when school desegregation fireworks were all the rage and before the Serrano decision and its copycats that equalized per capita school funding for all students (urban school districts had substantial funding inequalities in the 60s and 70s due to property tax funding that only equalized after the California Supreme Court decided Serrano v. Priest, 5 Cal. 3d (1971); and you got various clones of other state supreme courts - Edgewood Independent School District v. Kirby, 777 S.W.2d 391 (Tex., 1989), Rose v. Council for Better Education, 790 S.W.2d (Ky. 1989), etc.
Anyway, congratulations(?) for having just over half of high schoolers drink and 1/6th smoke.
Yeah - it’s a common shared global pattern, for example, in China, 17.9% of teenagers have ever smoked -
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“we found high levels of drinking among Chinese adolescents aged 12 to 17 years old. Around half of Chinese teens reported having consumed alcohol at some point” -
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Sorry, I come from an education-oriented well to-do country so I can't even imagine a place where that's an improvement over something or a place where 92% of the kids drink and 76% smoke.
The US High School Class of 1980 is now 60 and entering near their retirement age, and they presided over the U.S. turning into an net oil exporter due to oilfield technologies, sustained U.S. leadership in Silicon Valley, the broad IT-ification of all kinds of businesses, and an unprecedented growth in services sector productivity, among others. They are fine and clearly received substantial human capital development.
 
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valysre

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The US High School Class of 1980 is now 60 and entering near their retirement age, and they presided over the U.S. turning into an net oil exporter due to oilfield technologies, sustained U.S. leadership in Silicon Valley, the broad IT-ification of all kinds of businesses, and an unprecedented growth in services sector productivity, among others.
I will not bother to respond to most of your claims, but "the broad IT-ification of all kinds of businesses" seems to me to have been driven by a massive talent import campaign from abroad, mostly from China and India, rather than any kind of US education system.
My evidence for this assertion: go to a tech company, go to the floors where the software engineers are, and try to find people who attended high school in US. I guarantee that less than a third of them did.

US education system sucks. On the other hand, US research universities are very good. Perhaps this is the point of confusion. Much of US prosperity in the past thirty years is built on the intelligent talent drawn to the country by the best research universities in the world, rather than on any domestically produced high school students.
 

chgough34

Junior Member
Registered Member
I will not bother to respond to most of your claims, but "the broad IT-ification of all kinds of businesses" seems to me to have been driven by a massive talent import campaign from abroad, mostly from China and India, rather than any kind of US education system.
67% of people who work in a computer occupation that requires more than a bachelors degree in the were born in U.S. (
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). Further, this reasoning is partially circular - foreign-born individuals that desire to stay in the U.S. who aren’t applying on a family reunification greencard have very few career choices available to them to stay in the U.S. - computer occupations being the main one
US education system sucks.
No. It doesn’t.
Perhaps this is the point of confusion. Much of US prosperity in the past thirty years is built on the intelligent talent drawn to the country by the best research universities in the world, rather than on any domestically produced high school students.
71% of US STEM workers were born in the United States and 86% of US workers writ large were born in the U.S.
 
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