The Atlanta Fed is not an “economic planner”. GDPnow is literally an autoregressive model with an error term that gets smaller over time as estimated values get replaced with realized values
American Economics Thread
- Thread starter Bernard
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I wonder who built the model, because 4.2% to 1.8% is a pretty big error.
I suppose this is what happens when there isn't a Tsinghua model to plagiarise.
Yes - an autoregressive model is highly sensitive to new inputs.
Macroeconomic modelling in the U.S. dates to when Mao was burning down all the universities in China but okay.
Is this to say that China rises from the ashes while the US heads into them?
It's pretty common for that model, it gets fairly accurate by their last estimate before the official GDP numbers are released each quarter. With that said, last quarter I believe the number was quite a bit off as even its last estimate way overestimated the GDP growth, especially compared to the now downward revised number. Did anyone actually dive into it? Why was Q1's estimate so far off given by the last estimate all the mode's numbers were based on real inputs by then?
No. No one is collapsing. But the attribution of the standard DSGE, HANK, and SVAR macroeconomic modeling as “plagiarizing Tsinghua” is errant nonsense
No. Lots of gdp sub components for the 3rd month in a quarter are estimated/imputed values for the 1st release. They get filled in with “real” numbers in the 2nd and 3rd release. There’s a pretty big tradeoff between data delivered quickly and data delivered accurately.
1. Nvidia is not engaged in a “price war” when they are back-logged to hell from US customers alone. The U.S. is so large, complex, and diversified that sales to software publishers (self explanatory), banks (financial risk management), oil & gas prospectors (geological data), pharmaceutical companies (protein folding simulations), universities (supercomputers), among others will sustain growth for a long time into the future - regardless of what happens in the rest of the world.
2. Nvidia is seeing its revenue increase by 288% in less than 2 years.
3. Stock returns in the S&P500 have for a century been highly concentrated in a small number of shares with most firms underperforming the riskless tbill ()