American Economics Thread

[Maikeru]

Some very interesting thoughts on both US and China economies in this:

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[Bellum_Romanum]

Some very interesting thoughts on both US and China economies in this:

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What's the summary on that article if you don't mind providing an overview

 

[Maikeru]

What's the summary on that article if you don't mind providing an overview

It's actually a transcript of a youtube video. Basically China doom is way overplayed, UST and debt ballooning is the real story of the summer.

 

[antiterror13]

If China wants to deal a severe blow to the US economy or maybe even a knockout blow just boycott US treasury auctions and allow what is on China's books to mature without rolling it over.

The bond market sell off at the moment is like

And if the bond market sells off then other markets like real estate and stocks and rest of the economy will follow.

Then the choice for America is to either do nothing and allow everything to collapse or ease and let inflation to get much worse.

What do you mean of "boycott US treasury auctions" how would you do that?

My understanding is that China has stopping buying the the US treasury and slowly selling them ~$5 to $10B a month .. or possibly not buying new ones when the existing ones expired

 

[luminary]

The number of Chinese students studying in USA is almost 30%, largest group. India is 20%. Asians total 75%.

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International students continue to be a priority for the U.S. higher education sector, contributing $32 billion to the country’s economy in 2022.

With the demographic decline in U.S. domestic higher education enrollment, many colleges and universities are strategically focusing on international students.

According to IIE, 89% of U.S. colleges and universities indicated that 2023/24 applications are up or have stayed the same as the previous year.

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

This is a pretty freaking big deal that will materialize in the coming fiscal 2024. The China collapse economic narrative being pumped by America and her stenographer in the west in my view is perhaps designed to prepare the American people of entity to blame for the coming economic recession that's increasingly likely to occur in the western hemisphere, which is the "BLAME CHINA NARRATIVE."

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1698107786138415563

 

[luminary]

Crazy how many US youth go into business and marketing. No wonder the USA is so unproductive.

Most Popular U.S. Undergraduate Degrees (2011–2021)​

Meanwhile, 17 areas of study experienced declines in the number of completed university degrees.

Rank	Field of Study	2010–2011	2020–2021	% Change
14	Personal & Culinary Services	1,214	594	-51%
6	History	35,008	22,919	-35%
17	Precision Production	43	28	-35%
15	Construction Trades	328	221	-33%
5	English	52,754	35,762	-32%
8	Foreign Languages	21,705	15,518	-29%
12	Theology	9,073	6,737	-26%
11	Ethnic, Cultural & Gender Studies	8,955	7,374	-18%
3	Education	104,008	89,398	-14%

Rank	Field of Study	2010–2011	2020–2021	% Change
4	Liberal Arts	46,717	41,909	-10%
9	Philosophy & Religion	12,830	11,988	-7%
13	Communications Tech	4,858	4,557	-6%
10	Architecture	9,831	9,296	-5%
2	Visual & Performing Arts	93,939	90,022	-4%
1	Social Sciences	142,161	1,37,908	-3%
16	Mechanic & Repair	226	221	-2%
7	Human Sciences	22,438	22,319	-1%

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[martinwagner]

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Warning: Investors Are Buying Stocks Based on FAKE Jobs Numbers​

Releasing economic data that initially suggests the economy is booming, only for that same data to be revised downward multiple times in subsequent months.

Some people think the BLS is massaging the data the make Bidenomics look more successful that it really is. Others simply believe that the BLS is using faulty economic models (after all, how accurate is your model if it needs two or three revisions to be correct?).

Regardless of the reason, this issue continues to happen. And investors keep falling for it!

Case in point, last Friday, the BLS released the non farms payroll numbers for August 2023. And once again, you guessed it, the prior months (June and July) were revised lower. And not by a little: June’s NFP number was revised down by 80,000 jobs, while July’s was revised downward by 30,000 jobs.

Bear in mind, June’s initial NFP number of 209,000 had already been revised downward by 24,000 jobs in July. So with this second downward revision of 80,000 jobs, we now know that HALF of the jobs in the June NFP report were FAKE.

1st revision (24,000) + 2nd revision (80,000)=104,000 FAKE jobs.

104,000 Fake Jobs / 209,000 Jobs Claimed = 49.7% of the jobs were fake.

As I mentioned a moment ago, the August NFP report also revised July’s job numbers down by 30,000. So when we add this to the 104,000 fake jobs “created” in June, we’re now up to 134,000 FAKE jobs being created in the last two months.

As if that wasn’t bad enough, as Bill King noted in his King Report, seasonal adjustments were boosted to make August’s NFP numbers look better. In 2022, the BLS adjusted August’s NFP numbers upward by 47,000. But for some reason, this very same seasonal adjustment accounted for 117,000 jobs.

Put another way, we already know that 70,000 of the 187,000 jobs the BLS claims the economy generated in August were due to a seasonal adjustment, as opposed to being real jobs created in the economy.

Oh, and bear in mind, July’s numbers have only been revised down once thus far. They will likely be revised down again next month. And we can expect a similar thing to happen for August’s NFP numbers as well.

Indeed, as ZeroHedge recently pointed out, these downward revisions have occurred for every single month in 2023 thus far.

Just another day in Bidenomics land

 

[luminary]

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Just another day in Bidenomics land

However, this does demonstrate how the complete domination of MSM and cleverly falsified economic data can change the flow of capital and create impactful benefits for the empire. Fearmongering of China has scared foreign investment away and a faked economic recovery has increased investment in the US.

Manipulation of perceptions have allowed the US to control the behavior of their investors in ways it would be almost impossible for China to do so. This is how strong US soft power has become.

 

[siegecrossbow]

However, this does demonstrate how the complete domination of MSM and cleverly falsified economic data can change the flow of capital and create impactful benefits for the empire. Fearmongering of China has scared foreign investment away and a faked economic recovery has increased investment in the US.

Manipulation of perceptions have allowed the US to control the behavior of their investors in ways it would be almost impossible for China to do so. This is how strong US soft power has become.

You can only mask the problem for so long before everything becomes apparent.