American Economics Thread

Eventine

Junior Member
Registered Member
It's not that difficult, folks.

The US is growing faster than most other countries in $ terms, not because its economy is necessarily doing better, but because for whatever reason, even with massive inflation, the US dollar is stronger against every other currency today than it was before the pandemic.

This is the work of global capital more so than anything else. They are taking money out of other countries and putting them in the US, either directly via purchasing the dollar, or indirectly via investing in the US stock market.

The economic consequences are obvious. Even if US consumers are faced with higher inflation and are purchasing less products, in exchange adjusted dollar terms, they look like they're spending and making more, since US inflation is being canceled out, effectively, by global exchange rates.

The average American is richer in global terms, even if they're actually struggling to make ends meet.
 

In4ser

Junior Member
The consumer is more resilient than anyone else has thought, impervious to price levels, interest rates or anything else. It’s surprised everyone but that it’s sustained so long suggests the pandemic has caused structural increases in US productivity that are presently. Poorly understood.
No, this is because the Fed has been raising interest rates. Who wouldn't want to buy a 3-month treasury in the global reserve currency with a risk-free 5.28% ROI?

This is not without risks as it's going to raise causing a liquidity crisis because the higher interest rates will eat into the accounting books of debt holders. This is why American consumers are having to find money through borrowing $1 trillion in credit card debt, pulling money off 401Ks, and claiming Social Security benefits early. It is also why Moody downgraded 10 banks and Fitch is threatening to do the same. If the Fed continues to raise rates, even the US stock market may experience difficulty finding investors as the 5.28% ROI is hard to beat especially if it's guaranteed by the US government with the money printer.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
I think US interest rates will still go up further. Its a catch-22 effect.

Countries with US treasuries are selling off in order to maintain their national currency. That's actually killing demand buy flooding the market with treasuries. This puts pressure on the US Treasury to hike interest rates further until somone is willing to buy enough. That will likely come from private investors which is going to pull money off the stock market and the banking industry.

But as the economy slows down, the presses go printing again to save the banking industry and stimulate the economy, leading to another round of inflation, which in turn will trigger more interest rate hikes.

The fact that the US government and corporations have to borrow loans with increased interest means thta somewhere down the road, they have to pay up for the interest. This can means a greater proportion of income will go into servicing interest alone, which results in printing more money and the cycle goes on.
 

CMP

Senior Member
Registered Member
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306k fewer jobs added than initially estimated in the US in the year through March 2023.

That's nuts.
Based on the timing, their realization of their own negative economic indicators seems to sync up pretty well with when the China doom & gloom propaganda started hitting a new level. In other words, pure projection and distraction.
 

BlackWindMnt

Captain
Registered Member
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306k fewer jobs added than initially estimated in the US in the year through March 2023.

That's nuts.
Well that explains the chinese youth jobless problems exaggeration news stories the last few weeks.

Once again it shows that when the US blows the anti China horn it's usually projection.
 
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