American Economics Thread

[FairAndUnbiased]

The problem I see for the American economy is that its top-heavy. For the top 25% of income earners, things are pretty rosy even in these times assuming you still have a job. Their share of national wealth has increased, or stayed consistent so from their standpoint things are ok. The issue is with the lower 3 quartiles, who are losing ground at best or more likely drowning at worst. The "low unemployment" rate doesn't take into account factors such as the compensation offered by the jobs, f/t vs p/t, that influence the quality of life and thus the job availability. Personally, imho if a person working a full time job cannot afford basic shelter, food, transportation, etc for themselves that job shouldn't exist since you are basically paying to work and can't improve your life.

I this song hits the nail on the head perfectly, because progressives/liberals are as detached from reality as conservatives are. The HCOL urban areas where progressives tend to congregate are as detached from average american life as the Bund in Shanghai is from average Chinese life. The problem is the vast majority of Americans live outside of those areas, and progressives clustering has caused them to miss the bigger picture. Progressives really need to "touch grass", and go out to talk and experience how average people live without condescending attitudes to understand what is happening around them. Give credit to Trump, although he was only using these people he was able to relate to them, make them feel like he understood their plight. Sadly, the american working and middle classes are being royally screwed and because most americans are struggling to stay afloat daily, there isn't much time or energy for them to be involved in pushing for political change which unfortunately leaves the job to the political partisans leading to the current environment.

Oh the GOP has a party objective, its called owning libs lol.

most people in China live in a metro with good public transportation, safety, education systems, telecommunications and infrastructure.

most people in some country do not live like progressives. they live in rural or suburban areas with poor public transportation, moderate to high crime, terrible public education, shit phone service and infrastructure falling apart.

 

[TK3600]

Chinese massive expansion of chips factories have been slowed down and disrupted. A few of more advanced chips plants were put on hold waiting for domestic alternatives. YMTC would have already doubled and tripled its capacity without the sanctions. I do think Biden's chip war did hurt China but it also forced China to accelerate self reliance push.

Biden more or less is willing to hurt American companies in order to slow down China's advance in chips. However, the political environment in the US and pressure from both parties have ensured that the US would double down with or without Biden. I am more inclined to think that there are political consensus among all major interest groups in the US to contain China no matter what the price.

Russia's realignment with China is a major win for China. However, a protracted conflict in EU that forced EU nations to be completely rely on the US is still a win. Furthermore, German has been significantly weakened both politically and economically which is another win for the US. Russia is also weakened politically and militarily especially as Russia is no longer viewed as a world military power from many global south nations. I don't think the war is a big failure for Biden.

However, the US and EU abused of international financial system and confiscated Russian assets and misused extra territorial jurisdiction which is the biggest mistake and failure of the Biden's administration. Dedollarization and the weakened of the Western controlled financial system would have serious consequences and a huge strategical mistake as many global south nations have lost faith in the West.

Biden would be viewed very negative for triggering the downfall of the mighty dollar.

A tighter grip on Germany is not a US win when it is already a captive, while Russia is a swing state. You cannot equate the two. Germany to US is like what Belarus is to Russia. Consequently crippling Germany is also a loss for US faction, not a win. Just like if Russia somehow cripple Belarus to obtain tighter control, it also is not a win. How do you know they are captives? When Snowden leak happened all the vassals are cooperative, and made no question why American are violating their national security, including monitoring their head of state. Any normal country will find this unacceptable even for a minor power.

You will find the same pattern in Biden's so called diplomatic victory. Almost all of them are already a captive, including Japan, SK, EU in general. Meanwhile for the swing states Biden actually lost quite a few economically important nations, like Saudi Arabia. Because this is an economic thread, I will focus on the economic consequence. Losing Saudi Arabia is losing a lucrative arm export market, and also losing a major oil producer to petro Yuan. The best part is Saudi Arabia has its own regional influence, so losing Saudi Arabia to China also means losing influence on multiple Gulf States like UAE. When you have Russia, Gulf states, Iran under Chinese influence, petro dollar's days are numbered.

 

[KYli]

A tighter grip on Germany is not a US win when it is already a captive, while Russia is a swing state. You cannot equate the two. Germany to US is like what Belarus is to Russia. Consequently crippling Germany is also a loss for US faction, not a win. Just like if Russia somehow cripple Belarus to obtain tighter control, it also is not a win. How do you know they are captives? When Snowden leak happened all the vassals are cooperative, and made no question why American are violating their national security, including monitoring their head of state. Any normal country will find this unacceptable even for a minor power.

You will find the same pattern in Biden's so called diplomatic victory. Almost all of them are already a captive, including Japan, SK, EU in general. Meanwhile for the swing states Biden actually lost quite a few economically important nations, like Saudi Arabia. Because this is an economic thread, I will focus on the economic consequence. Losing Saudi Arabia is losing a lucrative arm export market, and also losing a major oil producer to petro Yuan. The best part is Saudi Arabia has its own regional influence, so losing Saudi Arabia to China also means losing influence on multiple Gulf States like UAE.

Americans don't operate like what you describe. Both German and Japan were forced to accept Plaza Accord. Plaza Accord is the US imposed terms to weaken its vassals. A vassal that is too strong would be difficult to control. America doesn't want an unified EU under the leadership of a strong German. Or it wanted an Asia that was under Japan's sphere of influence.

Russia is a swing state but the US never wanted to accept Russia. Russia is a tool that used to scare the EU and put EU countries in place and be forever relied on the US for security. Without Russia, the EU nations don't have an imminent threat which mean they don't need the US to provide them with security which means the US would lose its influence and control of EU nations. So Russia can't be ally. Russia has to be an enemy.

I do agree Saudi Arabia is extremely angry at the US. And Biden made a huge mistake for treating SA and the clown price with no respect and disdain. However, as long as Saudi Arabia didn't accept yuan for its oil, then it is still not a major win for China yet. If Saudi Arabia accepted yuan for petro, then it is a disaster for Biden and Biden would be remembered as the president that lost Saudi Arabia.

 

[TK3600]

Americans don't operate like what you describe. Both German and Japan were forced to accept Plaza Accord. Plaza Accord is the US imposed terms to weaken its vassals. A vassal that is too strong would be difficult to control. America doesn't want an unified EU under the leadership of a strong German. Or it wanted an Asia that was under Japan's sphere of influence.

Russia is a swing state but the US never wanted to accept Russia. Russia is a tool that used to scare the EU and put EU countries in place and be forever relied on the US for security. Without Russia, the EU nations don't have an imminent threat which mean they don't need the US to provide them with security which means the US would lose its influence and control of EU nations. So Russia can't be ally. Russia has to be an enemy.

I do agree Saudi Arabia is extremely angry at the US. And Biden made a huge mistake for treating SA and the clown price with no respect and disdain. However, as long as Saudi Arabia didn't accept yuan for its oil, then it is still not a major win for China yet. If Saudi Arabia accepted yuan for petro, then it is a disaster for Biden and Biden would be remembered as the president that lost Saudi Arabia.

That is exactly what I described. Weakening the vassal to consolidate the control. At best US managed to defend what they already own. Therefore not a victory. At worst the vassal is going to far weaker than its optimal state, which is what will happen to German economy, unable to support US in its tech war against China.

As for Russia, it may be true US never wanted to accept Russia, but being intentional does not make it a sound decision. Russia is no longer a superpower, but it is a kingmaker, and you do not want Kissinger's nightmare to happen which is a Russia firmly under China against USA. Furthermore, the policy of antagonizing Russia in the early 2000's is made with assumption China is still in western camp. The premise of the decision is no longer valid.

 

[horse]

Americans are stuck between a rock and a hard place. They want to believe their economy is superior yet the don't want to say the economy is doing bad.

That is the most erroneous bs things ever to tell oneself, what the Americans were doing.

The Chinese, it took them a while realize that. It could have been some elaborate trick. Had to proceed slowly to see if they do the bait and switch.

But no.

Forrest Gump is as dumb as he looks.

 

[KYli]

That is exactly what I described. Weakening the vassal to consolidate the control. At best US managed to defend what they already own. Therefore not a victory. At worst the vassal is going to far weaker than its optimal state, which is what will happen to German economy, unable to support US in its tech war against China.

As for Russia, it may be true US never wanted to accept Russia, but being intentional does not make it a sound decision. Russia is no longer a superpower, but it is a kingmaker, and you do not want Kissinger's nightmare to happen which is a Russia firmly under China against USA. Furthermore, the policy of antagonizing Russia in the early 2000's is made with assumption China is still in western camp. The premise of the decision is no longer valid.

I do agree with you that it could backfire and hurt the US if German is weakened significantly and unable to support the US in the crucial race of tech war. However, American strategists don't think this way. America even cooperated with Soviet Union in order to weaken Britain and France during the cold war. America frequently backstabed its allies and vassals. To the US, Russia, China and German all need to be contained even though China is the priority but America just doesn't want to pass up the opportunity to weaken both German and Russia at the same time.

Understandably, it is not a sound decision. Facing and confronting two powerful countries at the same time is never wise. However, Old habits die hard. Russia is a bogeyman, enemy and cold war rival which is simple and easy and widely acceptable for most Americans. Moreover, America and Western powers need to maintain the fake image of international liberal order and so called the rules-based order. Courting a bogeyman would be viewed badly.

In addition, eastern EU nations look up to the US to contain Russia. US doesn't have much a good option as it doesn't want to back down or look weak. To the US, the ultimate goal is to bring NATO to Russian border and eventually break up Russia into many smaller countries. Russia is no longer a superpower but still a threat to the US hegemony and the US would continue to destabilize Russia.

 

[tygyg1111]

The song is shit too.

Bring back Cotton Eye Joe

 

[Franklin]

If China wants to deal a severe blow to the US economy or maybe even a knockout blow just boycott US treasury auctions and allow what is on China's books to mature without rolling it over.

The bond market sell off at the moment is like

And if the bond market sells off then other markets like real estate and stocks and rest of the economy will follow.

Then the choice for America is to either do nothing and allow everything to collapse or ease and let inflation to get much worse.

 

[pevade]

Trump mishandled covid, yes. Other than that there is no large scale failure. Biden is losing a major war in Europe, did even worse than Trump in covid and trade war, and also managed to destroy the economy in record time.

I would call the many diplomatic blunders a pretty big failure. His many clown-like antics have made the US a joke on the international stage.

 

[TK3600]

I would call the many diplomatic blunders a pretty big failure. His many clown-like antics have made the US a joke on the international stage.

Compared to losing a proxy war, those clown antics are really small. I would also consider numerous Biden dementia moments equally bad clown antics. I for one cannot treat a man unable to read script properly to lead a country seriously. As for his actual diplomatic skill we can see from his Saudi Arabia trip: real bad. If there is one thing Biden is better than Trump, it is he is less involved. Because whenever Biden does get involved, he is worse diplomatically.