American Economics Thread

[taxiya]

Electricity per capita largely peaked around 1990, when the buildout of Nuclear power was halted.

For the broader picture you need to look at energy consumption per capita:

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This peaked 50 years ago.
And that's the thing about mature economies - ever increasing inputs of energy becomes uneconomical and energy efficiency wins ground.

Your "mature economy" is just less material producing economy, that is higher share of service sector. In essense an accounting trick in playing numbers.

Your diagram shows that the peak energy consumption of US was in the 1970s and 1980s, which "coincidentally" was when US had the highest share of world manufacturing industry.

Today, China is number 1 in manufacturing, so is her energy consumption.

There is no secret about being "mature", it is just stopping making physical goods. The physical law is simple, for producing anything material, there must be energy input, the more you produce the more energy input. Efficiency isn't something one can brag about if one is not the number 1 in manufacturing.

BTW, the service sector is just redistributing existing physical goods, it is one dollar in, one dollar out, from your left hand to your right hand, from the poor's hand to the rich banker's hand, nothing new is ever created. Only manufacturing creates. Living in a "mature" economy is NOT a good news for the 90% population.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Your "mature economy" is just less material producing economy, that is higher share of service sector. In essense an accounting trick in playing numbers.

Your diagram shows that the peak energy consumption of US was in the 1970s and 1980s, which "coincidentally" was when US had the highest share of world manufacturing industry.

Today, China is number 1 in manufacturing, so is her energy consumption.

There is no secret about being "mature", it is just stopping making physical goods. The physical law is simple, for producing anything material, there must be energy input, the more you produce the more energy input. Efficiency isn't something one can brag about if one is not the number 1 in manufacturing.

BTW, the service sector is just redistributing existing physical goods, it is one dollar in, one dollar out, from your left hand to your right hand, from the poor's hand to the rich banker's hand, nothing new is ever created. Only manufacturing creates. Living in a "mature" economy is NOT a good news for the 90% population.

Only 2 economic activities can create value from nothing: agriculture and manufacturing.

Services can make existing processes more effective but cannot create value where no value exists.

 

[Proton]

Your "mature economy" is just less material producing economy, that is higher share of service sector. In essense an accounting trick in playing numbers.

Your diagram shows that the peak energy consumption of US was in the 1970s and 1980s, which "coincidentally" was when US had the highest share of world manufacturing industry.

Today, China is number 1 in manufacturing, so is her energy consumption.

There is no secret about being "mature", it is just stopping making physical goods. The physical law is simple, for producing anything material, there must be energy input, the more you produce the more energy input. Efficiency isn't something one can brag about if one is not the number 1 in manufacturing.

BTW, the service sector is just redistributing existing physical goods, it is one dollar in, one dollar out, from your left hand to your right hand, from the poor's hand to the rich banker's hand, nothing new is ever created. Only manufacturing creates. Living in a "mature" economy is NOT a good news for the 90% population.

I guess there's still hardcore communists defending NMP?

Sure, GDP seem arbitrary compared to values scientifically assigned by a state bureaucracy.
But at the end of the day US energy consumption/capita peaked in 1973, yet it managed to outgrow the Soviet Union. Despite the latter thinking in terms of real material values, and not some silly market values.

Are recent success stories, like Taiwan and Israel, fake because their energy consumption stopped growing?

 

[taxiya]

I guess there's still hardcore communists defending NMP?

Sure, GDP seem arbitrary compared to values scientifically assigned by a state bureaucracy.
But at the end of the day US energy consumption/capita peaked in 1973, yet it managed to outgrow the Soviet Union. Despite the latter thinking in terms of real material values, and not some silly market values.

Are recent success stories, like Taiwan and Israel, fake because their energy consumption stopped growing?

Stay on topic about US electricity production/consumption and the possible meaning to its economy, don't drag others in, everyone has their own stories.

BTW, a correction to you, USSR has never overtook US in terms of manufactured goods. It's marterial production has a big chunk of oil and gas. Raw material production isn't symbol of industrial strength.

 

[tokenanalyst]

Only 2 economic activities can create value from nothing: agriculture and manufacturing.

Services can make existing processes more effective but cannot create value where no value exists.

To keep servicing a restaurant needs a supply of fresh food and IT companies needs hardware.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

I guess there's still hardcore communists defending NMP?

Sure, GDP seem arbitrary compared to values scientifically assigned by a state bureaucracy.
But at the end of the day US energy consumption/capita peaked in 1973, yet it managed to outgrow the Soviet Union. Despite the latter thinking in terms of real material values, and not some silly market values.

Are recent success stories, like Taiwan and Israel, fake because their energy consumption stopped growing?

IDK about anything else but let's see about Taiwan. In 1980 they imported foreign tools for "their" semiconductor industry. In 1990 they imported foreign tools for "their" semiconductor industry. In 2000... In 2010... In 2020... yeah.

Taiwanese wages stagnated from 2000 to 2015 at an average 40k NTD per month excluding holidays. It recently grew to 53k NTD per month.

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So how much of their "profit" and "growth" was because imported foreign equipment got better while their wages stayed the same, vs. anything they did on their own?

They didn't seem to open new markets like autos the way South Korea did, or even enter less energy intensive service industries like software, since Taiwan didn't have software in 2000 and still don't have software now. Looks to me like it's more like imported capital goods got better while wages didn't change, and prices went up.

 

[tygyg1111]

I guess there's still hardcore communists defending NMP?

Sure, GDP seem arbitrary compared to values scientifically assigned by a state bureaucracy.
But at the end of the day US energy consumption/capita peaked in 1973, yet it managed to outgrow the Soviet Union. Despite the latter thinking in terms of real material values, and not some silly market values.

Are recent success stories, like Taiwan and Israel, fake because their energy consumption stopped growing?

Small economies that lack internal market depth and are heavily dependent on external input / exports will function differently, and Taiwan hasn't been economically successful in the last 11 years since the DPP took over.

 

[Biscuits]

IDK about anything else but let's see about Taiwan. In 1980 they imported foreign tools for "their" semiconductor industry. In 1990 they imported foreign tools for "their" semiconductor industry. In 2000... In 2010... In 2020... yeah.

Taiwanese wages stagnated from 2000 to 2015 at an average 40k NTD per month excluding holidays. It recently grew to 53k NTD per month.

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So how much of their "profit" and "growth" was because imported foreign equipment got better while their wages stayed the same, vs. anything they did on their own?

They didn't seem to open new markets like autos the way South Korea did, or even enter less energy intensive service industries like software, since Taiwan didn't have software in 2000 and still don't have software now. Looks to me like it's more like imported capital goods got better while wages didn't change, and prices went up.

More importantly they just benefitted from overall growth in rest of China?

When the ceasefire was laid down, Beijing still provided markets and open access to the KMT. So they have near parity with coastal city living standards because they're essentially the same, just slightly worse run, but the businesspeople are of the same caliber, and a lot of them have most of their assets on the mainland.

As long as the KMT stayed hands off from economy (which they're increasingly not doing), Taiwan was able to comfortably ride the same path to prosperity like the other big coast provinces.

Taiwan didn't grow any major new markets because that isn't where China has stashed most of its talent (for obvious safety reasons). Talented Taiwanese would more often than not just move to more stable and better paying regions. Other companies from other provinces managed to create new markets no problem.

So basically all the 1st and 2nd tier areas could only grow due to increased industrial prowess and increasing consumption, both of which requires higher energy output.

 

[Stierlitz]

Forecasters Make Upward Revisions to Near-Term Growth and Job Gains

The U.S. economy for the next three quarters looks stronger now than it did three months ago, according to 37 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The panel predicts real GDP will grow at an annual rate of 1.9 percent this quarter, up from the prediction of 0.6 percent in the last survey. Over the next two quarters, the forecasters also see higher output growth than they predicted previously. Using the annual-average over annual-average computation, the forecasters expect real GDP to grow at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in 2023 and 1.3 percent in 2024. These annual projections are higher than the previous estimates of three months ago.

Downward revisions to the projections for the unemployment rate accompany the upward revisions to growth. Although the forecasters predict the unemployment rate will increase from 3.6 percent this quarter to 4.0 percent in the second quarter of 2024, these predictions mark downward revisions from those of the previous survey. On an annual-average basis, the panelists expect the unemployment rate to average 3.6 percent in 2023, compared with 3.7 percent in the previous survey. The annual-average projections beyond 2023 are also lower than those of the last survey.

On the employment front, the forecasters revised upward their estimate for job growth over the next four quarters. The projections for the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment suggest job gains at a monthly rate of 288,600 in 2023 and 94,800 in 2024. (These annual-average projections are computed as the year-to-year change in the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment, converted to a monthly rate.)

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[Bellum_Romanum]

The American economy is supposed to be in this great shape despite the high inflation and supposedly historically "LOW UNEMPLOYMENT RATE" yet when anyone peruse around the American social media regardless of platform you'll see, read comments of struggles and hard grind from most of the folks just trying to make ends meet. So despite the rosy painting of the supposed reality it appears that figures don't seem to match the actual living conditions and realities for the majority of the average American people.

This song titled: "Rich Men North of Richmond" written and performed by a southerner (Oliver Anthony) or as the Yankee libs would call, a hill billy. His not a mainstream musician. It was posted on YouTube 5 days ago and as of today has racked up close to 9 million views. ItsThe overwhelming sentiment and comments are exactly as I described above: the folks are working super hard with hardly nothing to show for.

The response from the left/liberals/progressive is entirely predictable. The man's message and song are being dismissed as nothing more than a cry by a right wing nut job and all the usual political mudslinging one can expect in the current American hyper-partisan environment. What a sad state of affair.