American Economics Thread

[Petrolicious88]

house & property counted as assets, but rentals account for nearly one third of cpi, there's a time lag, we'll see the impact soon, and it's sticky because of contract.

Exactly. There’s also always a lag. 2022 and beyond is important since this year is just a direct rebound from Covid.

 

[Deleted member 15949]

As long as foreign governments and foreign citizens and institutions keep lending the US money, then this is sustainable. And since China is not a clear alternative the World won't change it's mind on investing or trading or lending to the US... that is until the realities of American demographics are finally realized through 3rd world tier productivity loss, institutional degradation, and economic stagnation.

LOL. US productivity, institutional efficacy and economic growth are some of the highest in the world.

Clearly for now, the amount being borrowed (at very low rates) exceeds the economic losses in intellectual ability and work ethic that the US has been experiencing. This is not going to last for too long though.

The mean IQ of the new US generation (18-24 age group) is 93-94. This number will keep going down with each passing year. Demographics are destiny and America is living on borrowed time, but like I said the origin of this collapse won't be excess speculation or excessive lending, it'll be the demographics finally being understood to be calamitous when it's reflected in the economic reports.

LMAO, no. US demographics are amazing and so is US productivity.

The one exception is that perhaps there will be a higher concentration of extremely outlier talent in the US, even after it declines to being a slightly bigger Brazil, so it will still be far more capable at the higher end than such a country. Reasons for this are cultural, even in a shitty America, many people would rather live there than China (not that China is going to make it that simple for Indians or Germans to live in China anyway).

US universities say high.

Still, a USA which is just a moderately bigger Brazil with maybe 10x more talent at the far-right end of the intellectual spectrum isn't much to be proud of. The institutional degradation would be akin to a country like South Africa, where they have plenty of extremely talented people which can't get anything done since the government is controlled by extremely corrupt and incompetent people.

So, the Elon Musk of this world will still occasionally immigrate to the US at very high rates, but will find it much harder to be successful because they are surrounded by morons.

I really don't see any possible reality where China is not the absolute power in every domain, except perhaps cultural/entertainment but who cares about that anyway. While America has multiple unalterable existential risks, China as far as I can see has either one or two. One is the fertility rates (which the government is now trying to reverse so good for them), the other is arguably a return to outright Marxist/Maoist/Communist doctrine. I don't think this latter one is an existential risk though, that's assuming it's even true. A country can always reverse paths again. The only real existential risks are demographic change (especially of the racial-ethnic kind) and possibly climate change.

LOLOLOLOL

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

LOL. US productivity, institutional efficacy and economic growth are some of the highest in the world.

LMAO, no. US demographics are amazing and so is US productivity.

US universities say high.

LOLOLOLOL

simply asserting something doesn't make it true.

 

[LesAdieux]

LOL. US productivity, institutional efficacy and economic growth are some of the highest in the world.

LMAO, no. US demographics are amazing and so is US productivity.

US universities say high.

LOLOLOLOL

oh boy, you're too proud. let's check out the US recovery so far.

1. jobs: even after the impressive July report, there're still more than six millions pandemic unemployed, American demographic tells us there're two millions more working age people who need jobs since the covid.

2. GDP: Q2, 2021 was only marginally larger than Q4, 2019, 0.25% to be precise, annualized at 1%.

and you tell us how much America has spent to get here. only after the punch bowl is taken away we can see America's underwear, if she wears any.

 

[Deleted member 15949]

oh boy, you're too proud. let's check out the US recovery so far.

1. jobs: even after the impressive July report, there're still more than six millions pandemic unemployed, American demographic tells us there're two millions more working age people who need jobs since the covid.

2. GDP: Q2, 2021 was only marginally larger than Q4, 2019, 0.25% to be precise, annualized at 1%.

and you tell us how much America has spent to get here. only after the punch bowl is taken away we can see America's underwear, if she wears any.

1. Yeah, who cares? They were unproductive
2. Okay? Money printing is free, demographics are perfectly fine for the US and the best phase of growth is yet to come

 

[sinophilia]

LOL. US productivity, institutional efficacy and economic growth are some of the highest in the world.

Lol at yourself. Shame on me responding to someone who isn't capable of understanding the difference between present and future. Let me simplify it for you. US real estate prices are rock solid in 2005, therefore it is a logical contradiction to state they won't be right?

LMAO, no. US demographics are amazing and so is US productivity.
LOLOLOLOL

You aren't going to last here very long writing effortlessly stupid statements like these. If you are short on facts and long on bluster the Indian forums where your cousins do the same kinds of mental masturbation might suit you. As I said, the age cohort 18-24 have a mean IQ approaching 3rd world levels. The living standards of the US will approach such levels in a generation when that age cohort is the primary workforce of the country.

 

[emblem21]

Lol at yourself. Shame on me responding to someone who isn't capable of understanding the difference between present and future. Let me simplify it for you. US real estate prices are rock solid in 2005, therefore it is a logical contradiction to state they won't be right?



You aren't going to last here very long writing effortlessly stupid statements like these. If you are short on facts and long on bluster the Indian forums where your cousins do the same kinds of mental masturbation might suit you. As I said, the age cohort 18-24 have a mean IQ approaching 3rd world levels. The living standards of the US will approach such levels in a generation when that age cohort is the primary workforce of the country.

Demographics may be good only if the majority of these people are given jobs in the high tech area and if these people are actually smart and not just a bunch of people that cannot find Xinjiang on the world map, of which the USA has less and less of to the point where in China , new patents are coming out and new technologies are being shown almost constantly, we have yet to hear the same about the USA when its only bad news after bad news. Also hurting the USA even more is their racism that scares away any Chinese or Asian that is willing to help make America, heck one Chinese professor got murdered in the USA for doing research on the coronavirus for goodness sake, hence the USA right now is in a period of extreme brain drain with a younger population that is quite frankly at high school level the moment they level University only to do servicing work. This is the reason why it doesn't matter how good the USA looks on paper, if they cannot solve there fundamental issues, the USA will never be able to innovate like they may be able in the past. The fact that the USA has yet to produce a working hypersonic missile while China and Russia have already got there's and is still trying to screw around in China's back yard when what is left of their think tanks (who are all older generation people with some brains that is destined to be replaced by younger white supremist junkies at the end of the day that have no brains) is desperately trying to tell them that a war in the South China Sea is simply going to end in Epic failure

 

[Deleted member 15949]

Demographics may be good only if the majority of these people are given jobs in the high tech area and if these people are actually smart and not just a bunch of people that cannot find Xinjiang on the world map, of which the USA has less and less of to the point where in China , new patents are coming out and new technologies are being shown almost constantly,

Yeah, geography isn't necessary for economic competiviness.

we have yet to hear the same about the USA when its only bad news after bad news.

Yeah, because you don't actively seek good news about the United States and US media orgs like to report downside risk. Literally go on any corporate news release site. Plenty of positive news.

Also hurting the USA even more is their racism that scares away any Chinese or Asian that is willing to help make America, heck one Chinese professor got murdered in the USA for doing research on the coronavirus for goodness sake, hence the USA right now is in a period of extreme brain drain with a younger population that is quite frankly at high school level the moment they level University only to do servicing work.

Wut? Asians are 5% of the US population. The importance is limited. The US isn't getting brain drained, what the fuck. Net immigration flows to the United States is positive and US undergraduates are still paid well.

This is the reason why it doesn't matter how good the USA looks on paper, if they cannot solve there fundamental issues, the USA will never be able to innovate like they may be able in the past. The fact that the USA has yet to produce a working hypersonic missile while China and Russia have already got there's and is still trying to screw around in China's back yard when what is left of their think tanks (who are all older generation people with some brains that is destined to be replaced by younger white supremist junkies at the end of the day that have no brains) is desperately trying to tell them that a war in the South China Sea is simply going to end in Epic failure

What the fuck did I just read? Operational difficulties on one problem but more or less smooth functioning on the rest is evidence of much of anything?

 

[sinophilia]

Demographics may be good only if the majority of these people are given jobs in the high tech area and if these people are actually smart and not just a bunch of people that cannot find Xinjiang on the world map, of which the USA has less and less of to the point where in China , new patents are coming out and new technologies are being shown almost constantly, we have yet to hear the same about the USA when its only bad news after bad news. Also hurting the USA even more is their racism that scares away any Chinese or Asian that is willing to help make America, heck one Chinese professor got murdered in the USA for doing research on the coronavirus for goodness sake, hence the USA right now is in a period of extreme brain drain with a younger population that is quite frankly at high school level the moment they level University only to do servicing work. This is the reason why it doesn't matter how good the USA looks on paper, if they cannot solve there fundamental issues, the USA will never be able to innovate like they may be able in the past. The fact that the USA has yet to produce a working hypersonic missile while China and Russia have already got there's and is still trying to screw around in China's back yard when what is left of their think tanks (who are all older generation people with some brains that is destined to be replaced by younger white supremist junkies at the end of the day that have no brains) is desperately trying to tell them that a war in the South China Sea is simply going to end in Epic failure

That's the key point there though, they aren't smart. This has been looked at, many times. The IQ gap doesn't close, won't close, no matter what kind of programs are instituted.

The IQs of the lower age groups are bad and getting worse with each passing generation. And it can't be reversed unless the US literally becomes Nazi Germany and sterilizes or genocides entire ethnic/racial groups. I don't think that's gonna happen.

And with the 25-35 million illegal immigrants that will probably be given citizenship there this decade (average IQ of those immigrants <90), the US will become an utter dumpster with a few wealthy and advanced gated communities within a generation.

 

[Deleted member 15949]

Lol at yourself. Shame on me responding to someone who isn't capable of understanding the difference between present and future. Let me simplify it for you. US real estate prices are rock solid in 2005, therefore it is a logical contradiction to state they won't be right?

Current realities are a reflection of policy made. Current US indicators reflect a quite healthy and functioning policy space.

You aren't going to last here very long writing effortlessly stupid statements like these. If you are short on facts and long on bluster the Indian forums where your cousins do the same kinds of mental masturbation might suit you. As I said, the age cohort 18-24 have a mean IQ approaching 3rd world levels. The living standards of the US will approach such levels in a generation when that age cohort is the primary workforce of the country.

The US doesn't do IQ testing and even if that was true (it's not), the US can always rely on immigration and legacy advantages in higher education & research. PISA scores in the United States are fairly good once adjusting for a few demographic variables