2025 Israel - Iranian conflict

iewgnem

Senior Member
Registered Member
This is the show of morale I've been waiting for. I am seeing some hope. If Iran weathers the storm for the next few weeks and doesn't surrender, they have a chance.
I don't know why so many throughout history always make the mistake of thinking unprovoked attack on a country will turn their people against their own government, it literally has never happened that way and the opposite every single time.
 

iewgnem

Senior Member
Registered Member

Claims israeli AD has been degraded enough that lawnmowers are starting to make it through

I think we have to keep in mind a few things:
1 - It looks very much like Iran has been targeting Israeli AD itself, not just trying to saturate it, which also implies Iran is receiving up to date targeting data from somewhere, on the ground or space.
2 - Israel doesn't produce any AD missiles themselves, they might have a blank check from the US but all replenishment still need to be shipped in from abroad then deployed. In the past these attacks tend to end after one or two exchanges giving Israel time afterwards to replenish, but Iran has been keeping attacks up for 2 days, so even if US has more, they might not be able to deploy them in time.
3 - The amount of damage Israel is suffering is unprecedented and it's not subjective, what Iran has is obviously not comparable to home made rockets, and Israel might not have fully prepared for it, especially their AD coming under precision attacks.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
Then are they flying away enmass?
Counting 3,2,1. If the Iranian attack intensify and targeted civilian infrastructure then we will see a mass exodus , right now the settlers from the North and South has gone back to New York and many Israeli are having second thought about the Israel project. They're unlike the native Palestinians who have nowhere to go.
 

Botnet

Junior Member
Registered Member
Of course it can work, because Iran the goal is not to bomb Israel into submission, but simply for them to stop bombing Iran. The US couldn't bomb Vietnam into submission, but the Vietnamese could inflict enough pain to make the US withdraw. This is the same concept. The poorer, less powerful nation trying to inflict enough pain on the wealthier aggressor to stop being aggressive is very much a time-tested strategy.
This is not the same concept, there’s no boots on the ground on either side, nor is there any invading force quagmired in the opposing country. This is an air and missile war with casualties measured in the dozens or hundreds, you simply are not gonna deal anywhere near the amount of damage needed to force the respective population’s to express the level of discontent needed to put an end to this. Especially not when its a conflict measured in weeks. Every example of what you’re talking about took years. If Israel’s military is completely untouched in these strikes, they’re not gonna back down, they’ll just be emboldened to strike more targets in Iran. I dont think you realize the Israelis are determined to end this here and now. I mean the fact that they’ve been willing to face off against every proxy and Iran combined shows that only a response that deals significant damage to the Israeli military will give them any pause.
 

xyz4321

Junior Member
Registered Member
Pretty obvious something is burning in Haifa, possibly power plant.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Its an oil refinery per analysts and eyewitnesses
Based on open source data on Iranian and Israeli stockpiles and infrastructure, both sides have enough to deplete air defense and attack infrastructure. Iran has a deep magazine of MRBMs and Israel is small, while Israel has high persistence with short ranged bombs since it now has air superiority in Iran, though not air supremacy yet.

I think by the end of this war, both sides will have an extremely damaged economy and similar %losses.
Israel used up its stockpiles very early on in the Gaza Genocide. Soon after, it began receiving munitions from NATO on dozens of daily flights that haven't yet stopped.
If you think that “optics” will lead to some sort of revolution, regime change, or international action in/against Israel, you’ve clearly not paid attention to the history of Israel over the last 40 years.

Israelis do not shy away from war and the world does not shy away from supplying them with weapons.
Israelis also don't shy away from fleeing to their ancestral homelands in Europe. Since almost all Israelis (except the Arabs) are foreigners, they always have this option in the back of their heads, totally unlike Iranis.
Then are they flying away enmass?
Hundreds of thousands flew away during the Gaza Genocide.



Closeup


Iron Dome is acting like Joe Biden

_____

This clip was posted couple pages ago but nobody caught the little detail (not even me): blackout!
 

lube

Junior Member
Registered Member
Thats why these exchanges from a few days doesn't really tell the full picture. Its who can still stand well after at least 2 weeks that well tell more.

I got a feeling things might shift if Iran does keep firing missiles and drones when we past Month 1, and smaller salvos are getting past Israeli AD because they're running low on interceptors....

It's "Trust in the plan, Bibi edition", and I think they're being sold a short decisive 1 month bombing campaign with the rest of the conflict being clean up, with minimal economic disruption
 

PLAwatcher12

Junior Member
Registered Member
Its an oil refinery per analysts and eyewitnesses

Israel used up its stockpiles very early on in the Gaza Genocide. Soon after, it began receiving munitions from NATO on dozens of daily flights that haven't yet stopped.

Israelis also don't shy away from fleeing to their ancestral homelands in Europe. Since almost all Israelis (except the Arabs) are foreigners, they always have this option in the back of their heads, totally unlike Iranis.

Hundreds of thousands flew away during the Gaza Genocide.



Closeup


Iron Dome is acting like Joe Biden

_____

This clip was posted couple pages ago but nobody caught the little detail (not even me): blackout!
There is no proof for the cargo plane giving Iran weapons other than it might have turned off its transponder over Iran
 
Top