2025 Israel - Iranian conflict

[doggydogdo]

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Iranian drones are hitting Israel.

 

[iewgnem]

Overall the Israelis can strike and decapitate Iranian military, but to what significance? IRGC is a massive organization with countless generals. If groups like Hamas and Hezbullah can replace leaders, so can IRGC.

IDF claims it has air superiority over Iran but as of now, only stand off munitions are being used, with no videos or other proof that IDF aircraft are actually over Iran.

Without a doubt the scale of the attack on Iran was a surprise, but thus far Iran’s nuke program is pretty unscathed.

While impressive in some respects, this attack doesn’t set back Iran’s program in any way nor is it forcing Iran to accept terms that Israel wants to see happen.

I mean, if you took out Hegseth (Def Sec) Lutnick (Commerce Sec) , Gabbard (Director of Intel), Rubio (Nat Sec Advisor + State Sec), Patel (FBI) and Vance (VP) all in one day, people know enough about those characters to know it wont affect US gov operations one bit.

Only CIA's Ratcliffe seems like he might be important, but then you have to remember Pompeo used to have that job.

Its only because people know so little about Iran's goverment structure that they assume key figures are as competent and therefore important as they are.

 

[Eventine]

i think some of you are too doomer pilled. regime change would be very difficult without boots on the ground or some popular uprising.

Regime change is very easy when all the top leadership are killed & the survivors are compromised collaborators. The West is showing a by the book execution of a “decapitation strike,” which is designed to effect regime change in countries without strong internal cohesion & counter intelligence capabilities.

Keep killing the hard line, competent leadership & sooner or later you’ll be left with just cowards & turn coats.

 

[iewgnem]

We’ve seen pretty much zero evidence of Iranian SAMs in action, only AA batteries. And it doesn’t appear to be particularly effective given the frequency of Iranian infrastructure destroyed.

We dont see Houthis AD in action either, Israel for sure degraded it, but to assume you can take out Iran's AD completely when US right on Yemen coast couldnt do so against Yemen rebels is a big strech.

You also cant assume just because AD against high altitude hypersonic targeting a small high pop area are visible, it must also means intercepts against small munitions or evading aircraft over a landmass the size of Iran are visible.

 

[neutralobserver]

This is embarrassing to say the least. (If true, Iran should immediately impose martial law and take out these traitors)

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1934018292467048510

 

[iewgnem]

Regime change is very easy when all the top leadership are killed & the survivors are compromised collaborators. The West is showing a by the book execution of a “decapitation strike” which is designed to effect regime change in countries without strong internal cohesion & counter intelligence capabilities.

Nope, regime change has always required turning the population against the goverment through economic sanctions and propaganda directing blame, no exceptions.

An open unprovoked external attack against a country tend to do the opposite and unite people around the gov, especially for countries with strong cultural identity.

If anything this shows US and Israel has given up on regime change, which they certainly has tried many times over the years

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Based on open source data on Iranian and Israeli stockpiles and infrastructure, both sides have enough to deplete air defense and attack infrastructure. Iran has a deep magazine of MRBMs and Israel is small, while Israel has high persistence with short ranged bombs since it now has air superiority in Iran, though not air supremacy yet.

I think by the end of this war, both sides will have an extremely damaged economy and similar %losses.

 

[HighGround]

Why didn't Iran target Israel's airports and runways to reduce sortie rates?

 

[tamsen_ikard]

Based on open source data on Iranian and Israeli stockpiles and infrastructure, both sides have enough to deplete air defense and attack infrastructure. Iran has a deep magazine of MRBMs and Israel is small, while Israel has high persistence with short ranged bombs since it now has air superiority in Iran, though not air supremacy yet.

I think by the end of this war, both sides will have an extremely damaged economy and similar %losses.

which is great for Iran and not good for Israel. Iran already doesn't have much economically. But Israel's key appeal is the economy. If that is damaged too much, most israelis will leave.

 

[ohan_qwe]

Why didn't Iran target Israel's airports and runways to reduce sortie rates?

Iran probably have to spend BM worth $100M to get through AD and then the damage to runways are repaired in a few hours.