If proof comes out within 2015 of China building one additional carrier I may still be correct that they won't have more than a pair of carriers at sea within a decade and I may still be correct about the priority/pace of their carrier program.
If proof comes out within 2015 of China building multiple additional carriers I will humbly admit that I am probably completely wrong about China's carrier program.
Three cheers for the LHD/LHA if it happens at any point in time!!!
I am not a gambler but let's have some fun:
- If proof comes out within 2015 of China building multiple additional carriers I will finally put up a profile picture: of multiple Chinese carriers, and keep it up for at least a year. On top of my humble admission.
- If no proof comes out within 2015 of China building any carrier then you will put up a profile picture of the no circle and slash over a Chinese carrier, and keep it up for at least a year.
- If proof comes out within 2015 of China building a single additional carrier then it's a draw and nothing happens.
Deal?
I think those are some tight terms. The issue is less about whether we'll get evidence of multiple carriers being constructed in 2015, but whether PLAN is pursuing multiple carriers for service within the next decade or more. It's also kind of inflexible to use "within a decade" as a precise timescale. If PLAN only has two carriers commissioned by 2025 but by 2026 has three, then will that change one's assessment of PLAN's carrier ambitions? What about three carriers by 2027 or 2028?
So a better term to consider would be to come back to SDF in 2030 and see how many carriers are in the water as well as under construction.
My personal belief: I don't think we'll get evidence of 002 within 2015, however I do think we'll get evidence of 001A within 2015, and significantly clearer evidence by the end of 2016 at the latest (given the modules at DL's drydock probably won't look like a carrier hull for a while). We'll probably get first evidence of 002 a few years after 2015, maybe 2017 at the earliest. I'd expect three carriers commissioned by 2030 (or at least two commissioned and the third on the cusp of commissioning) and with evidence of a second hull from DL and a second hull from JN as well, assuming there are no substantial changes to the economic climate.
Given your rather strong belief that the PLAN do not have significant long term carrier ambitions, I propose: how about if the PLAN has only two carriers commissioned by 2030, and no more carriers in the water or under construction (assuming now significant decrease in overall military funding), then I'll admit that the PLAN are not and were not serious about carrier capability. But if PLAN has two carriers commissioned by 2030 AND either more commissioned, or more in the water (sea trials or launched) or under construction in a drydock, then you admit the opposite?
Obviously if we get evidence of a second indigenous carrier under construction at JN, at any moment prior to 2030 to make three carriers (Liaoning, DL's 001A, JN's 002), then you will also forfeit.
Personally I think the conditions of this wager are poor because evidence of carrier construction is arguably a poor metric for determining the actual degree of investment into carrier capabilities -- funding for relevant industries would be a better measurement -- but seeing as it is the most visible, I suppose it is also the most feasible.
