2014 Ukrainian Maidan Revolt: News, Views, Photos & Videos

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Miragedriver

Miragedriver

Brigadier
Jeff Head said:
Two things, Mirage.

1st - Americans do have this right. Either through impeachement and then conviction, or through constitutional convention. And that Constitutional conventio can occur either of two ways, with 2/3rd of the Congress, or...completely bypassing the Congress...with 2/3rd of the States. If they ever do any of those methods, then it would be legal and constitutional in America. Only two presidents of the US have been impeached, Adndrew Johnson and Bill Clinton. Neither were convicted. Richard Nixon resigned because he was about to be impeached and would have been convicted and he knew it.

2nd- The Ukrainian people protested, and they do have the right to do that. Those protests turned ugly, and ultimately the Prsident of Ukraine fled. But that is not what legally removed him from office in the Ukraine. If it had, it would not be legal or constitutional. On February 22nd, the Urkainian Parliament, acting in accordance with the Urkainain constitution, impeached the President, convicted, and removed him.

As to Obama? He is a weak President and is not committed at all to traditonal American interests.

Obama draws red lines just to step back from them and apparently does not care how weak it makes him appear on the international stage.

Obama tell leaders like Putin that he can be much more "flixible," if he can just win an election, and then he and his adivsors are surprised when a man like Putin bends him over backwards in rediculous contortions to show the world exxactly how "flexible," he can make Obama be.

But Obama and his ilk will also not always be in power...and Putin knows this. So Putin, who is a strong leader, will take as much advantage of this situation as he can...make whatever gains he can, and then shrewdly consolodate those gains as best he can before that occurs.
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I believe you Jeff. Americans have every right to protest the government (I was mentioning that tongue and check). I believe to have heard bits in the news regarding harassment of anti-Obama groups by the tax revenue people, (that is where my attempt at humor came from). And yes the wonderful thing is that in another 3-year the people can peacefully change governments without fear of snipers shooting them at the polls.

Additionally the Ukrainian people also have the right of self-determination. However, the reality is that the Russians have seized the opportunity of a power vacum and a weak western Leadership as possibility of securing their Black Sea access. And I do not see them backing down.
 
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TerraN_EmpirE

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
Russian conviction is that Ukraine received a offer to participate and NATO. They are convinced that Nato is still set to isolate them and destroy them and protest that the US Should stop nato expansion. The US has no real control over Nato expansion as Nato is shifting to a more European centric organization, and If the US did try and stop it. One it would be politically unpopular at home in the US, two it would be seen as a move to undermine European interests.
the Current move in the Crimea is now being portrayed or at least it was by a number of key Russian figures as such.
 
Jeff Head

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
chuck731 said:
TradItional American interests does not include Ukraine..
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As I stated, Obama is not committed to traditional American interests.

The defense of Europe, the abiding by offical treaties the US has signed with Eurpean nations, the halting of aggression into Eurpoe...all of those are in the interest of the US, and all of them apply to the Urkaine.

Obama is not itnerested in any of them...or a myriad of others. His actions these last six years...and truth be told, for years and years before that...attest to this.

A sit is, in this moment, noone of any strength and capability is going to come to the immediate assistance of the Urkaine.

The Crimea is gone and will not be retrieved.

IMHO, the only way they, the Ukraine, can hope to deter Putin from more is for them to credibly make it clear to Putin that if he keeps coming, they will make it far too expensive for him.

If Putin thinks he can stroll in to Kiev and install his puppet on a throne, without true, credible and massive resistance...he will do so. If, OTOH, he believes the Ukranians themselves will fight...and for years if necessary...he may be satisfied for now with the Crimea and a couple of other Southeastern Ukrainian provinces that may vote to leave the Ukraine.
 
Miragedriver

Miragedriver

Brigadier
Rutim said:
They'll burn cheap American coal ;)

You surely don't understand that Russian assets are kept not in Russia but in Western Europe. If EU would work together for real that would break Russian economy in a few weeks as it's eight times bigger then Russian. EU can run on their reserves (and they're being made looking at prices which rose so this means that everyone buys) for a few months while Russia, which hardly produce anything that European countries need aside from oil, gas (around 70% of their overall export to the EU is oil and gas) and rare mineral raw materials would literally go bunkrupt. Bunkrupt in a sense no real money, not bunkrupt on account books like some companies do to dissolve responsibility in a thin air.
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I believe it is what they would call a Mexican stand-off. Both sides have each other and they know it. Therefore unfortunate for the Ukrainian people the Russians will get away with it and nothing will be done, with the exception of harsh words and some posturing by the UN.

Sadly (truely mean this) it will be business as usual within the year and all will be forgotten as was the incident with Georgia.
 
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O

ohan_qwe

Junior Member
If the war breaks out, can you say that killing surrounded ukrainian forces in their bases with artillery and bombers will be like shooting fish in a barrel? How much of the ukrainian forces are surrounded?
 
Miragedriver

Miragedriver

Brigadier
ohan_qwe said:
If the war breaks out, can you say that killing surrounded ukrainian forces in their bases with artillery and bombers will be like shooting fish in a barrel? How much of the ukrainian forces are surrounded?
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The Ukrainian army will not get involved. They are smarter than that. I hear on the news talk about a “new Cold War”. A Cold War I can cope with. It's the thought of a Hot War that scares me. In actuality the western world was better off when the cold war was on. Peoples from the 3rd world could turn to the USA and Britain as a bastion of freedom, civil rights and a place where you could bring up your children without fear. Presently I am disgusted how career politicians and a plebeian population have brought the west to its knees. I am not proud of our so called western leaders, or “democratic leaders” in 3rd world nations (like that progress piece of trash Christina K); to call them idiots would be to overestimate their ability! As one of the forum member said, one side is playing Chess and the other is playing marbles.

I don’t fear another cold war. Come to think of it I felt safer when the cold war was going on because you knew who the enemy was and who your friends were.
 
Jeff Head

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Miragedriver said:
In actuality the western world was better off when the cold war was on. Peoples from the 3rd world could turn to the USA and Britain as a bastion of freedom, civil rights and a place where you could bring up your children without fear. Presently I am disgusted how career politicians and a plebeian population have brought the west to its knees.

I felt safer when the cold war was going on because you knew who the enemy was and who your friends were.
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Well stated sir.

And AMEN to 110% of every bit of that.

Sad thing is...an unbelievabley marvelous opportunity to have the vast majority of the world as friends was squandered after the victory in the cold war...and it was done by the very career politicians and a plebeians you describe in your statement.

But, as it is, and we have what we have. Crying over spilled milk will never pour any of it back into the jug. We can but refill the jug...and that is going to tkae time.

At the present with Ukraine, I honestly believe that leaders in the US and NATO, if they had the will, could help immensely with detering Putin in the short term. Sadly...they lack the will, and even the desire.

So, it will be left to the Ukrainian people and their leaders to manuever the mine field, and somehow convince Putin that it will be hell for him should he invade further into the Ukraine, but they have to do it in such a manner as to not provoke that very invasion.
 
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solarz

solarz

Brigadier
Jeff Head said:
Well stated sir.

And AMEN to 110% of every bit of that.

Sad thing is...an unbelievabley marvelous opportunity to have the vast majority of the world as friends was squandered after the victory in the cold war...and it was done by the very career politicians and a plebeians you describe in your statement.

But, as it is, and we have what we have. Crying over spilled milk will never puany of it back into the jug. We can but refill the jug...and that is going to tkae time.

At the present with Ukraine, I honestly believe that leaders in the US and NATO, if they had the will, could help immensely with detering Putin in the short term. Sadly...they lack the will, and even the desire.

So, it will be left to the Ukrainian people and their leaders to manuever the mine field, and somehow convince Putin that it will be hell for him should he invade further into the Ukraine, but they have to do so in such a manner as to not provoke that very invasion.
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I do not believe Putin will be invading the rest of Ukraine anytime soon. Instead, he will probably push for a partition of Ukraine so that the eastern half of the country will be easier to influence.

We have to remember that Russia is still a democracy. Putin has enough trouble on the domestic front, he doesn't need to add yet another discontented group to his list.

I see Putin as having 3 objectives in this:

1- Secure the Black Sea Fleet's base of operations. This is the top, non-negotiable priority. This basically means securing the entire Crimean region, which is what we see happening right now.

2- Boost his own domestic popularity by framing this conflict as a fight against Ukrainian neo-nazis.

3- Secure Russian influence in the eastern, pro-Russian, half of Ukraine.

It would be a fool's errand for Putin to try to bring western Ukraine under his control, and Putin is no fool.
 
kwaigonegin

kwaigonegin

Colonel
Jeff Head said:
Well stated sir.

And AMEN to 110% of every bit of that.

Sad thing is...an unbelievabley marvelous opportunity to have the vast majority of the world as friends was squandered after the victory in the cold war...and it was done by the very career politicians and a plebeians you describe in your statement.

But, as it is, and we have what we have. Crying over spilled milk will never puany of it back into the jug. We can but refill the jug...and that is going to tkae time.

At the present with Ukraine, I honestly believe that leaders in the US and NATO, if they had the will, could help immensely with detering Putin in the short term. Sadly...they lack the will, and even the desire.

So, it will be left to the Ukrainian people and their leaders to manuever the mine field, and somehow convince Putin that it will be hell for him should he invade further into the Ukraine, but they have to do so in such a manner as to not provoke that very invasion.
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Putin has a very high approval rating in Russia and really that's all he cares bout. Until that view shifts Putin couldn't care less what Kerry, Obama, Merkel et al says or do. At the 10,000 ft level, the trick is to create actions that will diminish his popularity in Russia. Anything short of that is practically meaningless.

One way is to hit the pocketbooks of the average Russian but that itself is extremely risky because it could very well backfire and gives Putin even more executive power and popularity if he somehow turns it around and atribute their sufferings to the actions of the 'Western Capitalists' and plays the victim card himself and he is a master at that.

The last thing we want is to have tens of millions of destitute Russians blaming the US, NATO etc for their hardships. Poor, hungry people do irrational things and demand their leaders to do irrational things they normally wouldn't do. One thing that most people failed to realized is that while Putin for all intent and purposes is basically a dictator he is still very much intune to the Russian people and he does listen to what their demands are.

On the tactical level I think Crimea is pretty much a lost cause. The question as we are all well aware of is will he move past Crimea to Kiev? Personally I think he won;t UNLESS western leaders do something stupid to truly arragavate him like threatening placing ABM shields in Ukraine or hasten the joining of Ukraine (sans Crimea) into NATO. That Putin will not allow IMHO.
 
Jeff Head

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
kwaigonegin said:
On the tactical level I think Crimea is pretty much a lost cause. The question as we are all well aware of is will he move past Crimea to Kiev?
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slarz said:
I see Putin as having 3 objectives in this:

1- Secure the Black Sea Fleet's base of operations. This is the top, non-negotiable priority. This basically means securing the entire Crimean region, which is what we see happening right now.
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I agree with this 100%.

Crimea is gone. it will not be a part of the Ukraine again as long as Putin and Russia are powerful enough to keep it there...and I do not see that changing in any of our life times.

As to Kiev and the rerst of Ukraine.

As I have said, Putin is shrewd and a strong leader. If he sees no real opposition, and (and this is critical) believes he could make it so with any real, untennable long term costs to himself or Risia...he will do it.

In my opinon, those cosyts have nothing to do with Sochi or the G-8. In addition, he already knows that Natural Gas prodcutoion from the US is going to start to counter balance his own supplies for Eurpean customers. But that is happening anyway and this is not going to really impact it...unless of course he had someone in the Urkaine under his thumb who would keep the gas flowing to the Ukraine from mother Russia for the long term.

Also, and I believe most importantly, if he thinks the Ukrainian people had the determinationa and will to turn his control of the Ukraine into a quagmire with long term negative reprocussions for him and Russia...he would pause.

At the same time, with no effective or immediate deterence from the West, he might make it happen anyway, and then when as soon as conditions begin to develop to the point that it warrants it, he could easily say that HE has returned political stability to all of the Ukraine and pull out before those costs mount to the point where they are unacceptable.
 
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