Speaking from a perspective of a country which Russia brought 40 years behind the Western Europe after the World War maybe he WAS a little indeed...
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2014 Ukrainian Maidan Revolt: News, Views, Photos & Videos
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Jura The idiot
General
Guys I'll watch The Grey movie now (haven't seen it yet, I guess it will fit my mood) and I hope there'll be no KIAs in the Crimea when I check the Internet tomorrow morning, but I'm afraid there will be :-(
Miragedriver
Brigadier
The Crimea has been, and is, historically Russian and would be quite happy to swap back and reverse the 1954 swap to Ukraine. Without a resolution of intensified ethnic/linguistic split, instability will continue. If situation is to be resolved with any kind of permanence then partition is probably inevitable, and if so, then it is best done quickly. The giving of the Crimea to Russia by the Ukraine is a small price to pay for independence.
Additionally the Ukrainian military will not fight Russian military - they are not stupid. Also the new Kiev government will not begin to deliberate the evolving situation until next week, which will be too late. I would not be surprised to see de facto partition within the week, and not a shot fired. And that will be an end to Russian expansion westwards, not the beginning - that's the big difference between this and any 1930s example.
Additionally the Ukrainian military will not fight Russian military - they are not stupid. Also the new Kiev government will not begin to deliberate the evolving situation until next week, which will be too late. I would not be surprised to see de facto partition within the week, and not a shot fired. And that will be an end to Russian expansion westwards, not the beginning - that's the big difference between this and any 1930s example.
Re: The situation in ukraine
My bet is the PRC won't openly support either side, it will focus on ensuring that whatever existing deals it had with Ukraine are honored as much as possible. However I think the PRC knows that the significance of this fight for the Ukraine is to the Russians what the Korean War was to the PRC. Since a strong enough Russia is needed by the PRC to ward off Western block pressures on other fronts the PRC would likely try to indirectly help yet squeeze a good deal out of Russia at the same time through trade proposals including possible weapons development co-operation.
My bet is the PRC won't openly support either side, it will focus on ensuring that whatever existing deals it had with Ukraine are honored as much as possible. However I think the PRC knows that the significance of this fight for the Ukraine is to the Russians what the Korean War was to the PRC. Since a strong enough Russia is needed by the PRC to ward off Western block pressures on other fronts the PRC would likely try to indirectly help yet squeeze a good deal out of Russia at the same time through trade proposals including possible weapons development co-operation.
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Re: The situation in ukraine
I'd say fast-tracking oil and gas pipelines would be a significant point to be considered.
I'd say fast-tracking oil and gas pipelines would be a significant point to be considered.
Historically, Crimea is as Russian as half of the Texas is Spanish.
What Russia gave Ukraine in previous century:
- Holodomor
- Chernobyl
- free coal and othe resources export
For me that's enough to not ask for anything from Russian side.
I bet some newspapers said something similar about part of Czechoslovakia annexation in 1938... I'd rather sit down watch as I don't know what Russia is up to in the next decades regarding Eastern/Central Europe.
I thought it was stable and nothing like Russian soldiers intervention is possible. Until this week.
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Yes the Crimea is a done deal. They are going to vote for Independence and ask Russia to be their protectorate. the Ukraine, the EU, the US, NATO, etc. at this point will have no say in the matter.
If the Russians do not advance any more, ou are right. But if the Russians come boiling out of the Crimea and move north, and more importantly, if those large forces to the east cross the frontier...the Ukrainians will fight.
Sorry Mirage, but if no one stands up to Putin...and makes the prospect of taking Ukraine itself a very expensive one for him to contemplate...I fear he will most certainly not stop and he will move on Kiev.
Putin stopped in Georgia not because people sweet talked him. He stopped because the US was flying hundreds and hundreds of personnel in there, right into Tiblisi, to help the Georgians. The were mostly advisors and trianers, but they had their security detachments with them. And they brought a lot of material.
Bush made sure that Putin knew that if he wanted to take Tiblisi (and he could have done so anyway f he wanted to push it) that he was going to have to spill American blood to do so, and would then have a conflict with the US and probably NATO.
The Presidents of those Eastern European nations flew in too and stood with Georgia as the Russians were still advancing, so Putin knew he would have to roll over them too and at the time, that would have made the conflict even wider. That is what stopped Putin. He had already achieved his main objectives...but he would have gone ahead and taken all of Georgia
if he thought he could get it on the cheap. When he found he could not...he stopped and consolidated the two Provinces he took.
If something does not occur to make Putin do that same type of calculus in the Ukraine, he will take the discount, bargain table and everything on it.
I have been listing to these idiot "talking heads," this morning here in the US on the major news channels, including a lot of pols and so-called experts. They are droning on and on about the UN and its charter that Russia has signed up to. They are talking about the security treaty made between the Ukraine, Russia, the US, and the UK when the Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal in exchange for a promise...a promise I tell you...that Russia would never violate their borders.
Pfft! Those are words written on a piece of paper. Putin has the power...the regiments of tanks, aircraft, howitzers, etc. His "right," is extending out of the barrels of those many weapons...and sadly...it is the nature of mankind and the history shows it so...that unless someone stands up and ensures that Putin knows that he is going to be hurt by other barrels pointing at him...he is going to go shopping at the bargain basement for another capitol.
I listen to these women, and these emasculated men go on and on about how Putin is breaking with their international community...how the meeting in Sochi is going to be canceled, how we can kick him out of the G8, etc., etc. They are so many knats on the backside of a great big brown Bear. So much spit in the wind at this point. Putin is feeling none of it.
So, unless someone stands up...and make no mistake, even if they did, Putin could still push on and take Kiev...they can only make it expensive now, with a promise of payments with interest later. Unless that happens, and from someone Putin has respect for and believes they mean it, Putin has no reason to stop.
I pray, for the sake of the Ukrainians...and beyond that for the Balkins too...and probably Georgia may get some pay back too...for all of them, that someone will stand up to this who Putin might actually believe means it.
Sadly...that is not Barack Hussein Obama. He already promised Putin he would be "more flexible," and Putin views him as a Putz, and is probably actually enjoying seeing how many contortions he can cause Obama to go through, just to see how flexible he is.
I have the feeling Putin has waited a long time for this...and Obama and other weak leaders are handing it to him on a silver platter.
Anyhow, sorry for the rant. We have a bunch of nitwits running America right now...and we are going to pay for it ( and anyone who has historically depended on us is also going to pay for it) until we get some adults back in charge.
/end rant
I can't disagree more with your last statement. I think that it is obvious that the Ukraine is set to be divided once Russia went all in, the already pro-Western stance of parts of the Ukraine can only be hardened by Russian military action.
However how the Ukraine will be divided is not yet set in stone despite likely strong correlation with local political leanings. If the US, EU, & pro-Western Ukrainian faction want to limit Russia's gains then they need to focus on preventing Russian takeover of sufficient territory in the south, likely to the West or East of Odessa, where Russian pipelines run.
Miragedriver
Brigadier
Ok Jeff, I see your point on the last item. The Russia may begin to develop an appetite. However, I stand by may assumption that there will be a facto partition within the week, however I do hope there are no shots fired.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Jeff, not to point fingers, but I always cringe when people involve the same tied old, you must stand up to so and so, speach.
While it is true that for some people, if you give them an inch, they will try and take a yard, it is not always the case for everyone. And using the same inflexible Churchilian rhetoric and tactics everytime you have a dispute with someone is going to lead to disaster a hell of a lot more often then it will prevent it.
Putin is not going into Ukraine because he thinks the cost of doing so is low. He is going in because he thinks Ukraine is a fundamental core interest of Russia's that cannot be allow to be lost to their old enemy and turned into another NATO/US armed camp to base BMD interceptors and American military forces within strike range of the most important parts of Russia.
Understanding that distinction is key, because a few hundred American human shields are not going to stop the Russians, and they will just get rolled over without a seconds thought if they tried to stand in Russia's way this time.
Unless you want to go head-to-head with your opponent, you must be able to see which fights they won't back down from, and avoid cornering them on those issues. Ukraine is such an issue for Russia like Taiwan is for China.
Because Ukraine is so fundamentally important to Russia, I don't think Putin would look beyond it for quite some time. He knows the stakes and the risk he has taken better than anyone, and will be breathing a huge sigh of relief if he could take Ukraine without getting into a ground war with anyone else. Putin didn't get to where he is and stay there for this long by being stupid and taking needless risks.
If he takes Ukraine, I believe he will cash out rather than look to widen the conflict and go after anywhere else, as that will drastically increase the chance that NATO or the US might get directly involved, in which case there is a real risk all his gains in Ukraine could be rolled back.
The key to good decision making is the ability to understand you opponent. One must never drink the cool aid and start believing your own propaganda.
You can hate Putin, you can tell everyone else all the tall tails your imagination can dream up about him, just don't believe it yourself or underestimate him by trying to shoehorn him into neat little cookie cutter villain roles if you want to understand and beat him.
While it is true that for some people, if you give them an inch, they will try and take a yard, it is not always the case for everyone. And using the same inflexible Churchilian rhetoric and tactics everytime you have a dispute with someone is going to lead to disaster a hell of a lot more often then it will prevent it.
Putin is not going into Ukraine because he thinks the cost of doing so is low. He is going in because he thinks Ukraine is a fundamental core interest of Russia's that cannot be allow to be lost to their old enemy and turned into another NATO/US armed camp to base BMD interceptors and American military forces within strike range of the most important parts of Russia.
Understanding that distinction is key, because a few hundred American human shields are not going to stop the Russians, and they will just get rolled over without a seconds thought if they tried to stand in Russia's way this time.
Unless you want to go head-to-head with your opponent, you must be able to see which fights they won't back down from, and avoid cornering them on those issues. Ukraine is such an issue for Russia like Taiwan is for China.
Because Ukraine is so fundamentally important to Russia, I don't think Putin would look beyond it for quite some time. He knows the stakes and the risk he has taken better than anyone, and will be breathing a huge sigh of relief if he could take Ukraine without getting into a ground war with anyone else. Putin didn't get to where he is and stay there for this long by being stupid and taking needless risks.
If he takes Ukraine, I believe he will cash out rather than look to widen the conflict and go after anywhere else, as that will drastically increase the chance that NATO or the US might get directly involved, in which case there is a real risk all his gains in Ukraine could be rolled back.
The key to good decision making is the ability to understand you opponent. One must never drink the cool aid and start believing your own propaganda.
You can hate Putin, you can tell everyone else all the tall tails your imagination can dream up about him, just don't believe it yourself or underestimate him by trying to shoehorn him into neat little cookie cutter villain roles if you want to understand and beat him.
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