asif iqbal
Lieutenant General
On that I agree, Putin see Crimea as a part of Russia not even part of another country
Well I guess u don't become the largest country in the world by giving up territory!
2014 Ukrainian Maidan Revolt: News, Views, Photos & Videos
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On that I agree, Putin see Crimea as a part of Russia not even part of another country
Well I guess u don't become the largest country in the world by giving up territory!
Many new pics, videos and my analysis at the above link.
JEFFHEAD.COM said:As a result of the protests and upheaval in the Ukraine directed at the pro-Russian president in the Ukraine (see regarding that upheaval) during the first weeks of February, after severe clashes with citizens in which many were killed by the President's security forces, the Russian President fled the capitol and was impeached by the Ukrainian parliament.
Russia announced that the ouster of their ally was a "coup," and would not recognize the interim government that was formed according to the Ukraine constitution after the impeachment.
Significant concern was voiced, particularly by US Secretary of State, John Kerry, and US President Barack Obama, warning that any military intervention would be met with severe consequences. But Vladimir Putin acted and was intent first on securing the Crimea (which until 1954 had been a part of Russia), where the Russian Black Sea Fleet is ported in the Russian Naval Base at Sevastopol.
Putin is no stranger to the Crimea. He, along with most Russian and before them, Soviet, leaders, and a lot of the Russian public view the Crimea as a vacation area. Putin visited the Crimea in 2012 on vacation and while there rode Harley Davidson motorcycles with a group that he met with there.
It Crimea was ceded to the Ukraine in 1954 by Nikita Khrushchev and has been a part of the Ukraine ever since. But many Russians believe that the Ukraine, which is heavily populated with ethnic Russians (as are the 3-4 southeastern provinces of the Ukraine), should still be a part of Russia.
Beginning on Thursday night, February 27, 2014, reports began coming in of uniformed, armed men taking up positions at Crimea government buildings and the two major airports in the Crimea. The one at the capitol of Crimea, Simferopol, and the other at the Naval Base in Sevastopol. By Friday morning, pictures of the troops began surfacing and they were clearly wearing Russian uniforms and gear, though they had no insignia or other identifying marks. As the day passed, Russian aircraft began landing at these airports with reports of troops disembarking the aircraft, and pictures of the Russian landing vessels at the Naval Base surfaced of them unloading armor and troops.
Throughout the day, these forces spread out in the Crimea. They established themselves along major highways, at road intersections, in major cities and at intersections within the capitol of Crimea.
As the United States leadership continued to warn against any intervention, Vladimir Putin had already intervened and was securing the Crimea.
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plawolf
Lieutenant General
So Putin is not even going to try to make a token attempt to disguise his goals. He is taking a big gamble, but from his POV, doing nothing and 'loosing' Ukraine would not be much worse compared to going into Ukraine and loosing, so that was probably a far easier decision than most western leaders and commentators might have bargained on.
I think that the sheer inability to look at things from others' POV is a profound, fundamental problem that western governments, analysists, commentators and decision makers all seem to share. That's true even within their own countries, but that is getting OT.
The point is, this Russian response should have came as a surprise to no one, and now that Putin has dropped all pretense (the earlier 'unidentified' armed men who took over various places in Crimea wearing standard issue Russian uniforms and kit and who were obviously Russians were likely feelers to gauge western reaction, which was lukewarm at best), I doubt he will stop till he has Kiev and all of Ukraine under his control again.
Putin is not going to repeat the mistake (or so he would have perceived) he made in Georgia, where he had Georgia helpless on its back, throat bared. All he had to do was will it and he could have delivered the coup de grace and ended Georgia as a country. Instead he was sweet talked into staying his hand by the west, but got not a hint of recognition for his 'restraint', and was instead daemonised in the western media and lectured at by western leaders. Georgia itself became even more anti-Russian and was almost cheered on by the west in doing so.
I think western pettiness and short-sightedness will come back and bite it in the butt in Ukraine. Had the west given Putin a little recognition for his restraint, and had they been a little more considerate of Russia's interests in their dealings with Georgia post conflict, there might have been a chance they could have convinced Putin to not march his troops into Kiev.
But now if the tried, I think Putin will just flip them the bird with one hand while bouncing his nuclear football with the other and dare anyone to come and stop him.
That means that the only ones who could stop the Russian tanks rolling into Kiev would be the Ukraine army. But even unified, that would have been a big ask. If the military is anything like the rest of Ukraine society, it's likely as conflicted and divided as the rest of the country about the Russian move, with large sections strongly for and against the Russians while others don't know what to make of it all.
I think the main reason the generals kept their men locked down in their bases was because they could not be sure who those men will aim their rifles at if ordered to shoot. That could easily have led to a civil war before the Russian intervention. Now if the same thing happened, it won't be some much a civil war as a route if a large section of the already badly outmatched Ukraine army switches sides or refuse to fight.
Ukraine was lost to the west as soon as Putin made the decision to go all in and send in the tanks. The only question now is how much blood it will cost everyone and how long it will take the west to realise this.
I think that the sheer inability to look at things from others' POV is a profound, fundamental problem that western governments, analysists, commentators and decision makers all seem to share. That's true even within their own countries, but that is getting OT.
The point is, this Russian response should have came as a surprise to no one, and now that Putin has dropped all pretense (the earlier 'unidentified' armed men who took over various places in Crimea wearing standard issue Russian uniforms and kit and who were obviously Russians were likely feelers to gauge western reaction, which was lukewarm at best), I doubt he will stop till he has Kiev and all of Ukraine under his control again.
Putin is not going to repeat the mistake (or so he would have perceived) he made in Georgia, where he had Georgia helpless on its back, throat bared. All he had to do was will it and he could have delivered the coup de grace and ended Georgia as a country. Instead he was sweet talked into staying his hand by the west, but got not a hint of recognition for his 'restraint', and was instead daemonised in the western media and lectured at by western leaders. Georgia itself became even more anti-Russian and was almost cheered on by the west in doing so.
I think western pettiness and short-sightedness will come back and bite it in the butt in Ukraine. Had the west given Putin a little recognition for his restraint, and had they been a little more considerate of Russia's interests in their dealings with Georgia post conflict, there might have been a chance they could have convinced Putin to not march his troops into Kiev.
But now if the tried, I think Putin will just flip them the bird with one hand while bouncing his nuclear football with the other and dare anyone to come and stop him.
That means that the only ones who could stop the Russian tanks rolling into Kiev would be the Ukraine army. But even unified, that would have been a big ask. If the military is anything like the rest of Ukraine society, it's likely as conflicted and divided as the rest of the country about the Russian move, with large sections strongly for and against the Russians while others don't know what to make of it all.
I think the main reason the generals kept their men locked down in their bases was because they could not be sure who those men will aim their rifles at if ordered to shoot. That could easily have led to a civil war before the Russian intervention. Now if the same thing happened, it won't be some much a civil war as a route if a large section of the already badly outmatched Ukraine army switches sides or refuse to fight.
Ukraine was lost to the west as soon as Putin made the decision to go all in and send in the tanks. The only question now is how much blood it will cost everyone and how long it will take the west to realise this.
Equation
Lieutenant General
True, but Putin is not going to talk to the current Ukraine government that he believes are not legit and representative enough of the Ukraine people. Therefore dialogue would be a waste of time to him, as he sees it, he's going to protect Russia's interests at all cost.
Miragedriver
Brigadier
Well as I predicted in earlier posts on this thread that the Russians would never let the Crimea slip from their grasp. I do not think anybody else will be sending troops to the Ukraine to turn out those of Russia. Moscow has no intention of losing control of key areas already of military significance and under Russian control, nor were they under threat.
However if Kiev is to turn to the West and the EU, Putin will want absolute control of the areas he needs for strategic purposes and if not just the Crimea, seemingly easily in the bag, then eastern Ukraine with a Russian speaking majority may also go his way.
The way this is playing out does not seem like any sort of surprise at all. There was a hiatus during Sochi, but I would have said this would have been Moscow's approach from the start.
If they cannot achieve a pro-Russian puppet as the all-Ukraine President as in the now displaced Yanukovych, then they will settle for regional puppets in the next tier down - as many of them as they can.
Business as usual.
However if Kiev is to turn to the West and the EU, Putin will want absolute control of the areas he needs for strategic purposes and if not just the Crimea, seemingly easily in the bag, then eastern Ukraine with a Russian speaking majority may also go his way.
The way this is playing out does not seem like any sort of surprise at all. There was a hiatus during Sochi, but I would have said this would have been Moscow's approach from the start.
If they cannot achieve a pro-Russian puppet as the all-Ukraine President as in the now displaced Yanukovych, then they will settle for regional puppets in the next tier down - as many of them as they can.
Business as usual.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Yanukovych is still in play and Putin is playing for everything.
Putin is going to roll his tanks into Kiev, drive out or slaughter the opposition government and put Yanukovych back on his throne.
The only way Russia settles for just part of Ukraine is if someone the Ukraine army can fight the Russians to a standstill and prevent them reaching Kiev. Or if the US and NATO deploys troops fight the Russians to a standstill.
Both scenarios are as likely as the other.
Putin is going to roll his tanks into Kiev, drive out or slaughter the opposition government and put Yanukovych back on his throne.
The only way Russia settles for just part of Ukraine is if someone the Ukraine army can fight the Russians to a standstill and prevent them reaching Kiev. Or if the US and NATO deploys troops fight the Russians to a standstill.
Both scenarios are as likely as the other.
Jura The idiot
General
I found this technicality (can't get a Like for this ... OK I'll try to stop joking):
Use of Russian Armed Forces abroad
The use of armed forces and other troops may be authorized in peacetime by a decision of the Russian President in accordance with the procedure established by federal law. The decision on possible use Russian armed forces outside the territory of the Russian Federation falls within the jurisdiction of the Federation Council of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation in accordance with Article 102 of the Russian Constitution. The Federation Council considers the question of use of armed forces outside the territory of Russian upon receipt of an appeal from the President of the Russian Federation setting out the rationale for the proposed use of force.
For even more details, in Russian:
Use of Russian Armed Forces abroad
The use of armed forces and other troops may be authorized in peacetime by a decision of the Russian President in accordance with the procedure established by federal law. The decision on possible use Russian armed forces outside the territory of the Russian Federation falls within the jurisdiction of the Federation Council of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation in accordance with Article 102 of the Russian Constitution. The Federation Council considers the question of use of armed forces outside the territory of Russian upon receipt of an appeal from the President of the Russian Federation setting out the rationale for the proposed use of force.
For even more details, in Russian:
Equation
Lieutenant General
Sounds to me that Polish president is a bit paranoid.
Jura The idiot
General
a link, please
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