Let's see what happens next, the US, EU, and the pro-Western Ukrainian faction are doing the smart thing by issuing lots of warnings to Russia, soon to be condemnations, but not doing anything militarily provocative right now. Let the Russians secure the Crimea, if they go farther than that then they can easily be overplaying their hand, then the US and EU should take military action to take advantage of that.
The big picture and long term victory is about the hearts and minds, politics and economics, among the majority of the Ukrainian population, the US, EU, and the pro-Western Ukrainian faction already have the upper hand in this regard. That the Russians have to resort to military measures is a sign that they are desperate.
Letting the Russians have the Crimea is a good trade if the rest of Ukraine can be more easily secured as pro-Western, versus a scenario where much larger areas of the Ukraine is solidly politically divided. A solidly pro-Western Ukraine even without the Crimea (or even small portions of the south/east as long as most or all Russian pipelines are cut off) would be a huge blow to Russia, the biggest challenge is for the US and EU to economically make that happen.
To be brutally honest, even a Ukraine mired in civil war is more of a blow to Russia than the West, but it would also be a much less solid victory for the West as well, let's hope it doesn't come to that for the sake of the local population. Anyone thinking that Russia can be completely removed from the Ukraine through military force is forgetting how the Korean War played out.
The big picture and long term victory is about the hearts and minds, politics and economics, among the majority of the Ukrainian population, the US, EU, and the pro-Western Ukrainian faction already have the upper hand in this regard. That the Russians have to resort to military measures is a sign that they are desperate.
Letting the Russians have the Crimea is a good trade if the rest of Ukraine can be more easily secured as pro-Western, versus a scenario where much larger areas of the Ukraine is solidly politically divided. A solidly pro-Western Ukraine even without the Crimea (or even small portions of the south/east as long as most or all Russian pipelines are cut off) would be a huge blow to Russia, the biggest challenge is for the US and EU to economically make that happen.
To be brutally honest, even a Ukraine mired in civil war is more of a blow to Russia than the West, but it would also be a much less solid victory for the West as well, let's hope it doesn't come to that for the sake of the local population. Anyone thinking that Russia can be completely removed from the Ukraine through military force is forgetting how the Korean War played out.
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