09V/09VI (095/096) Nuclear Submarine Thread

[Blitzo]

Any thoughts on the likely production run for 09VI?

USA is going for 12 SSBNs, Russia about the same. Given the high threat levels to China's SSBNs, I think a similar number will be required. And given developments in ABM technologies I think that significant numbers of missiles will be required, even if China deploys fewer warheads (and more decoys/penetration aids) on those missiles.

With 6 09IV/As in service, a further 6 09VI's would bring China to a dozen SSBNs and should be achievable by 2030. However, given the range limitations on JL-2 and operational limitations those impose on the 09IV boats, and also the presumed technological limitations of 09IV, I would expect the 09IVs to be replaced in the 2030s, at the least in SSBN role -- a conversion to intelligence-gathering or SSGN role would be possible.

Survivability and payload of SSBNs are key to their mission.
09IVs/094s are certainly better than 092s and the more recent 094 boats may field improvements vs their predecessors.

But 09VIs/096s will likely field similar improvements in survivability and stealth as what 09V/095 has been circulated as possibly enjoying as well given they would be of a similar generation. And JL-3 should have a meaningfully greater range than JL-2 even if JL-2's specific range is not quite well known.


I wouldn't be surprised if post 2030 they aim for a fleet of 8-12 096 category SSBNs while 094s may get converted to other duties. But of course all of this is dependent on just how survivable 096 ends up being and just what kind of capability we can expect from JL-3 etc.

I also wouldn't be surprised if they end up building a number of SSGN/large payload submarines derived from 096s in time as well.

(I stopped using the roman numerals cause it's too easy to mistype and misread)

 

[Blitzo]

Here's a half-joking comparison between official sources and "big shrimps"

              official sources   "big shrimps"
reliability            √           doubtful
consistency          √          not always
first-handness        √       almost definitely not
semantic vagueness   √             √

Just saw this, didn't catch it earlier.

I agree to an extent, but I think "big shrimps" are usually less vague than official sources in terms of saying things in black and white.
Things like "we can expect to see hull number X and Y of 055 this year" or "carrier 002 will be launched this year about XYZ month" or "they might end up buying ABC number of 054Bs". Official sources don't really hand it out to us clearly like that -- and even if the big shrimps may not be as "reliable" I would argue the much greater straightforwardness of some "big shrimps" makes up for being somewhat "less reliable" than official sources.

I should not comment too much on 09V before its debut. But since it has been mentioned so many times, I suppose the new line is not a secret any more -- the new line is active and it is active since 2016, after the first facilities were built.

That is interesting, but part of the discussion was also about what parts of the line could be "active".
The new line is thought to have brand new structures including the final assembly hall, fabrication buildings, paint shop etc, and based off photos we can see that only the final large assembly hall was really "finished" circa 2016 whereas the other buildings thought to be for fabricating pressure hulls etc were not.

My speculation was in the past was that the lead 09V may have begun assembly around 2016/2017, but that the actual modules for it may have been fabricated at the old buildings and moved to the new assembly hall for final assembly and subsequent launch. However I would be surprised if it was fabricated wholly at the new line, because the buildings needed to be used to fabricate modules at the new line wouldn't have existed back in 2016.

 

[azesus]

中國第三代核子潛艇發展

在09III/09IV核子攻擊/彈道導彈潛艇的研製工作告一段落後，更新一代的核能潛艇（09V/09VI型）的研發工作咸信也再進行。依照中國方面報導，在中國第十個五年計畫（簡稱「十五」，2001到2005年）期間，中船重工719所（向來參與中國核潛艇設計工作）的工程師劉春林領導的團隊承擔並完成了某國防預研重點項目課題，提出採用集成二迴路系統技術（兩級迴路的一體化壓水反應器，一體化反應堆是將蒸氣產生器直接整合在反應堆壓力容器中， 如此就可以省略許多冷卻系統的管道，減低體積重量，並大幅減少冷卻管道破損導致反應爐失冷的意外機會），使核動力二迴路系統在成倍提高功率密度的同時，也大幅降低了輻射噪聲水平，並適應模組化造船發展的趨勢。此外，在某型號課題攻關中，劉春林參與研製核動力系統的蒸汽發生器二次側非能動餘熱排出技術，有效提高了現有的核動力裝置固有安全性，並解決了困擾中國某型核動力裝置多年的最終熱阱難題。 在2005年，進入中船重工719所工作僅7年的劉春林被任命為某型號系統副主任設計師。2012年，某新型號（應為繼09III/09IV之後的新一代核能潛艇）批復立項研製，劉春林被國防科工局任命為此型號的副總設計師，同時兼任該型號動力系統總師。其他可能用於09V/09VI的新技術還包括在2000年代進行預研的泵噴推進技術、2012年獲得發明專利的「大型智能氣囊隔振裝置」、2012年獲得國家科技進步二等獎的「艦船推進動力系統低頻隔震裝置」等。

第三代核子潛艇（09V/VI）的主要技術重點包括：降低噪音與震動、提高潛航深度、一體化反應堆技術、泵噴推進器技術、一體化集成作戰系統、新型武器與電子系統等等。第三代核攻擊潛艇（09V）的排水量可望達7000噸，裝備新型反艦導彈與陸攻巡航導彈，從垂直發射器或艇首魚雷管發射；而09VI戰略型核潛艇還會配備新發展的潛射彈道導彈（應為巨浪三型）。

中船重工719所引進「全三維設計」

在2018年4月17日，中船重工的官方微博披露，位於武漢的中船重工719所在2018年2月28日，搭乘G1290動車前往千里之外的造船廠，「開始廠所融合設計的新征程」。在半年前（約2017年11月），由719所總設計師冷文軍率領的60餘名設計團隊抵達船艦配建現場，通過「5+2」、「白+黑」日夜趕工、沒有放假的奮戰，在八十幾天內完成了63000多道審簽工序，向工廠發放7000多份經過精確計算、精細設計、精準定位的三維數據包，順利完成了某產品的設計數據發放任務，比以往型號的施工設計圖紙供應整整快了一年（相當於加快了80%），對一個「等不起」的工程任務彌足珍貴；在這八十幾天期間，719所這個60人團隊平均每天發放90份包含大量結構、設備或管路的三維數據包，這相當於每人平均每天要畫1.5張圖紙（依照以往的二維圖紙方法，同樣一張圖紙要耗時1至2周）；而且這些經過精準計算、精細設計的數據包，設計內涵遠超過以往數張施工設計藍圖。

這一切努力，都源於中國造艦產業推動的「全三維設計」設計模式變革：「全三維設計」包含「全過程」、「全要素」、「全壽期」三大要點，「全過程」從方案論證階段開始就進行三維設計，不再是以往型號在論證階段以二維設計為主、三維設計進行空間校核的模式，使得論證一開始就能開展各階段的總體平衡。「全要素」是三維設計不僅關注總體佈局設計，還要解決集成優化、聲學、維修性、人因工程等諸多關於集成設計與驗證的問題。「全壽期」則是不僅僅只做船艦本身總體設計，還要一併解決可生產性檢查、生產設計融合、工裝對接、虛擬建造、數據交換等上下游問題。

多年來，中船重工719所採用較為傳統的二維圖樣為主、三維校核為輔、串行設計與發放的設計方式。這種設計方式存在顯性化與精細化程度不夠、總體設計綜合平衡深度不足、難以展開並行設計等問題，難以支撐高精尖裝備的研製工作。為了提高設計質量和效率，滿足研製新時代一流裝備的質量與期程要求，719所遂進行變革，全面推行「全三維設計」工作流程。這場變革自然一開始也面臨許多難關：第一是所內沒有體系，需要進行三維數字化定義體系和管理體系研究、設計方法和標準研究、設計環境和數據管理系統研究等，從頭建立工作體系與流程；第二是沒有先例，行業慣例要打破，研製模型要重新建立，思想認識要逐步統一，尤其是過去人員習慣成自然的二維圖樣管理制度，改成三維設計條件下如何融合工廠工藝設計、如何實現數據全息傳遞、如何數字化檢驗等，都衍生出許多複雜的問題。第三是沒有時間，型號研製進度緊迫，719所相當於一邊「造飛機」，一邊還要「開飛機」趕進度，大量繁雜的工作項目本身已經使719所科研人以員高負荷運轉，如今還要建立全三維數字化設計體系，可說絲毫沒有喘息機會。中船重工719所所長邱志強表示：「這是一條正確的必由之路，為了推動我國艦船事業高質量發展，再難我們也要做」。719所所長翁震平在一次大會戰動員會上表示：「我們要在短時間走完先進國家幾十年走過的路」（歐美最頂尖造艦產業在1990年代末、2000年代初邁入全三維設計，日後陸續深化，實現虛擬實境互動設計體驗，乃至於動態的三維建模模擬等）；翁震平親自用科學家的嚴謹，帶著行政線、技術線對這一場革命進行了高度概括，提出「2+2+1」理念；依照此一裡念，719所傾權力，體系化地開展大量技術研究和開發工作，貫通全三維設計途徑。利用這些研究成果全面開展的型號精細化設計，「步步為營、環環相扣」，經過規劃設計、完整性設計、綜合平衡、多特性校核、可生產性平衡、試驗驗證、數字樣機評審等迭代設計活動，直到達到用戶提出的「精品工程」要求。

結果，這一場全所未有的設計模式變革，推動了跨專業、跨部門跨廠所的並行協同設計，最終構建了面向建造、覆蓋全船各功能系統的數字化樣船：各系統和部件採用三維數字化模型進行裝配、檢查和協調，實現了大型船舶百分之百的三維建模、百分之百精確定位的多專業並行協同產品數字化定義。因推動完成全三維設計轉型，中船重工719所獲得「國防科技工業信息化推進工作優秀單位」等榮譽稱號，並得到用戶的高度贊譽，稱其為船舶行業的「革命性和引領性突破」。中船集團公司領導也充分肯定了這一場變革帶來的成效：「第一次在船舶行業看到了全三維數字樣機」。通過「全三維設計」轉型，719所建設了多個虛擬現實廳，有全船級的演示大廳，也有工作組級的協調小廳；在這些虛擬演示廳中，所內設計人員以及造船廠方面技術人員、軍方用戶代表透過穿著導航頭盔、操作手柄的虛擬實境（VR）技術，所有人能同時「抵達」三維虛擬樣船的任何一個部位進行檢視，共同評估可生產性、體驗操作；透過三維虛擬的呈現效果，給予建造方、用戶最具體直觀的感受，使得建造方與用戶能根據自身經驗迅速看出問題癥結點，最立即地回饋給設計方進行改進。

這段關於中船重工719所引進「全三維設計」的文字敘述中，由於719所向來是中國核潛艇重要設計單位，「等不起的工程任務」很可能是核能潛艦之類的重點裝備；G1290動車是由719所所在的武漢前往長春，途經建造核潛艇的渤海重工船廠所在的葫蘆島。因此，中船重工披露這項消息，可能代表中國新一代核潛艇的設計工作實現了「全三維設計」，而719所在2018年2月底完成了該所負責的方案設計工作。
Too lazy google translate but 095 was finish design 2018 Febuary

 

[Totoro]

If true, then we might not see first 095 photos in a dock until 2023 or so.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

Interesting they integrated the steam generator into the nuclear reactor reducing piping and equipment foot print
They talk about using 3 D drawing system which make sense as it is more accurate and can be incorporated into other system . New vibration damping system and new propeller Basically everything new or in other word new generation of submarine They are right 3rd generation of nuclear sub

I doubt it will take that long if they finish the design early in 2018 then it probably take 2 years to fabricate the hull and another 1 or 2 years outfitting it. so most like 2021 to 2022 we will see it in the water

 

[SinoSoldier]

According to the reports, 09V started construction design and began providing drawings in 2017. Thus it is almost certain that its construction was started at the old line.

By that estimate then it could be launched by 2023. This is going by 09III standards, of course.

 

[Blitzo]

According to the reports, 09V started construction design and began providing drawings in 2017. Thus it is almost certain that its construction was started at the old line.

So when you said on the last page that "the new line is active and it is active since 2016, after the first facilities were built" what are you referring to? If it was active in 2016 does that mean it wasn't active for producing 09V, therefore for 09IIIB or something?

 

[azesus]

google translate my previous post previous page, 09V did not finish its design until 2018 Febuary, so the one before is 09IIIB or the chinese themselves called the "kai" version meaning change or upgrade with newer subsystems, thats basically about it

 

[Biscuits]

By that estimate then it could be launched by 2023. This is going by 09III standards, of course.

Find it very hard to believe a 7000 ton boat would take 5 years to build, that is even longer than the aircraft carriers.

If it started construction in ‘18, it should take about as much time as a 052D at worst, maybe closer to a 054A.

 

[SinoSoldier]

Find it very hard to believe a 7000 ton boat would take 5 years to build, that is even longer than the aircraft carriers.

If it started construction in ‘18, it should take about as much time as a 052D at worst, maybe closer to a 054A.

US boats take ~3 years from being laid down to launch, and this is for long-running sub classes of which a large number of units has already been built. Chinese sub yards, by inference, are far less experienced and tooled to build subs compared to companies like GDEB, and from historical precedents it takes ~6 years for Chinese boats to make the equivalent leap.

Of course, Bohai Shipbuilding may have evolved since the late 1990s but that's the latest time frame that we can go by.