09V/09VI (095/096) Nuclear Submarine Thread

[SinoSoldier]

From fzgfzy

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"久伍已经有了，如果运气好，明年应该有照片了吧。"

Claims that 09V is already "there" (not sure if he means launched or in advanced stages of construction). Says that next year if we're lucky we might get a picture of it (presumably by satellite).


Also, in the comment thread when someone asks when we can expect 09VI, fzgfzy says "这个应该慢一点" -- it should be slower (presumably relative to 09V).
However when someone else asks if he has hope to see it in 5 years, fzgfzy then says "那又不用五年" -- it also shouldn't need 5 years.
So presumably he is saying 09VI will emerge after 09V (as expected), but that it should emerge before 5 years from now.


===

Personally I'm a bit surprised if we will be able to see 09V next year, that is a year or two earlier than I would've personally predicted. I was under the impression production of the lead 09V would've only began in late 2017/early 2018 at the earliest, so if it's launched by 2020 that's rather speedy. All the moreso if they're using the new Bohai facility because it looks like that overall production facility was fully finished late last year/early this year.

09VI emergence period is quite reasonable though.

There is no confirmatory proof that the new halls are active, so it is more than likely that the 09V was or is being built at the old shipyards. And even if the new halls were fully functional, one wouldn't expect a prototype submarine to be built so quickly.

Now, what is really interesting is that both POP3 and another source claim that a VLS-capable 09IIIB variant exists, and yet we haven't seen that anywhere.

09VI is to be expected sooner or later in conjunction with 09V.

 

[localizer]

Hmm I’ve been thinking that sub launched SAM might be an effective way to take down 5th gen if theres good data linking

 

[Blitzo]

There is no confirmatory proof that the new halls are active, so it is more than likely that the 09V was or is being built at the old shipyards. And even if the new halls were fully functional, one wouldn't expect a prototype submarine to be built so quickly.

Well that's the enticing part isn't it?

Based on satellite images the entirety of Bohai's full facility was not finished until late last year or early this year. It's certainly possible that 09V is being constructed at the old facility, however recent rumours about the lead boat have been non-specific.

I would note that Henri K over the last few years seemed to pair the beginning of 09V construction with completion of the new facility. I wonder if it's possible that various subsections of the 09V were completed at older parts in the shipyard and then had modules moved to the final assembly hall (which appeared to be completed earlier than the rest of the new facility) for assembly in the last year or two.

Now, what is really interesting is that both POP3 and another source claim that a VLS-capable 09IIIB variant exists, and yet we haven't seen that anywhere.

We've been hearing about a VLS 09IIIB for a while now, and we haven't seen it, but that is somewhat to be expected given how secretive the PLAN are with their nuclear submarines. It was a significant surprise last year when we had a few pictures showing us all the different mods of 09III.

09VI is to be expected sooner or later in conjunction with 09V.

Of course it's to be expected sooner or later alongside 09V, but it's of interest to all of us as to whether 09VI will emerge sooner or later, and fzgfzy giving his opinion about a timespan for 09VI is useful information.

 

[latenlazy]

Well that's the enticing part isn't it?

Based on satellite images the entirety of Bohai's full facility was not finished until late last year or early this year. It's certainly possible that 09V is being constructed at the old facility, however recent rumours about the lead boat have been non-specific.

I would note that Henri K over the last few years seemed to pair the beginning of 09V construction with completion of the new facility. I wonder if it's possible that various subsections of the 09V were completed at older parts in the shipyard and then had modules moved to the final assembly hall (which appeared to be completed earlier than the rest of the new facility) for assembly in the last year or two.

Also possible that the first one was assembled at the old shipyard as a pre-production unit, and “beginning of construction” refers to a full production run.

 

[Blitzo]

Also possible that the first one was assembled at the old shipyard as a pre-production unit, and “beginning of construction” refers to a full production run.

Based on Henri K's blog posts where he directly refers to 09V beginning construction at Bohai's new facility I think he was pretty explicit about it being the lead boat.

To quote:
"Using the same Type 09III development life cycle mentioned above, and knowing that the Type 09V project is being launched in 2012, one would expect a start of construction for this class of submarines in 2017, the first float in 2023 and admission to active service around 2025.

And this date of 2017 perfectly matches that of the inauguration of the new assembly line.

So we could say, without too much mischief, that the Type 09V will be the first class of nuclear submarines to be assembled in this new production line."

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and

"From this it can be deduced that the new nuclear submarine assembly line at the BSIC is not yet operational, and therefore the construction of the first Type 09V, or even the first Type 09VI SSN , could not start here. But it should still start before the end of 2017, if our estimate is correct.

It should be noted that the first Type 09V should be launched in the artificial basin, which can be seen next to the red tanker at the bottom left of the high image, around 2023 approximately , and his admission to active service by 2025."

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I would be interested to see what he thinks of the more recent news; because obviously if the lead 09V launches this year or next as fzgfzy suggests it would be much faster than what Henri K predicted.

 

[SinoSoldier]

Well that's the enticing part isn't it?

Based on satellite images the entirety of Bohai's full facility was not finished until late last year or early this year. It's certainly possible that 09V is being constructed at the old facility, however recent rumours about the lead boat have been non-specific.

I would note that Henri K over the last few years seemed to pair the beginning of 09V construction with completion of the new facility. I wonder if it's possible that various subsections of the 09V were completed at older parts in the shipyard and then had modules moved to the final assembly hall (which appeared to be completed earlier than the rest of the new facility) for assembly in the last year or two.

Building a lead boat in a brand-new facility goes against the grain of the PLAN's rather conservative approach to prototyping. And I would assume that disassembling and reassembling the scaffolding and structures to move production to a new facility wouldn't take place while the sub is still under construction. I could be wrong but I don't think Henri K. or any other civilian observer would know anything about the lead 09V beyond speculative thought.

We've been hearing about a VLS 09IIIB for a while now, and we haven't seen it, but that is somewhat to be expected given how secretive the PLAN are with their nuclear submarines. It was a significant surprise last year when we had a few pictures showing us all the different mods of 09III.

The 09III mods were actually first spotted in 2013 via satellite. The PLAN is indeed keeping a tight lid but something always leaks out.

Of course it's to be expected sooner or later alongside 09V, but it's of interest to all of us as to whether 09VI will emerge sooner or later, and fzgfzy giving his opinion about a timespan for 09VI is useful information.

If it's of any use, the first 09IV was spotted in 2006, three years after the first 09III was spotted (in 2003 for the latter). But I agree that 5 years is quite reasonable. I just didn't expect the 09V to show up so quickly.

 

[Blitzo]

Building a lead boat in a brand-new facility goes against the grain of the PLAN's rather conservative approach to prototyping. And I would assume that disassembling and reassembling the scaffolding and structures to move production to a new facility wouldn't take place while the sub is still under construction. I could be wrong but I don't think Henri K. or any other civilian observer would know anything about the lead 09V beyond speculative thought.

We certainly don't know much about whether the lead 09V would be built at the new facility or the old one.

I would be surprised if construction of the entire 09V was done at the new facility given how recently the whole thing was completed, but I don't think it's out of the question for the final stages of construction to have been done at the new facility (i.e.: the assembly hall, which seemed to have finished construction in mid 2017 earlier than the rest of the facility).

Whether it's "against the grain" or not is debatable. The PLAN has been doing quite a lot over the last few years that has been "against the grain".

I think the best way for us to look at whether the lead 09V may be getting built or partially built in the new facility is whether the timelines could match up.


By the way I think your characterization of the new facility may not be accurate -- when you say "disassembling and reassembling the scaffolding and structures to move production to a new facility" you make it sound like they're taking pieces of equipment from the old facility and moving them to the new facility.
Given the new facility is greenfield and much larger, I expect them to have built entirely new production lines and fabrication facilities in the new facility.

That is to say, I don't think the new facility is merely the "old production line" that has been moved to a new location and in some new buildings, but rather that the new facility is an entirely new production line in general.

The 09III mods were actually first spotted in 2013 via satellite. The PLAN is indeed keeping a tight lid but something always leaks out.

es of course we knew 09III mods existed by satellite photos around 2013.
But we most certainly did not know there were so many different variants before last year:

Note how I wrote "all the different mods of 09III" -- i.e.: multiple and more than one. We certainly did not have proof that there were as many as five possible 09III configurations in 2013.

If it's of any use, the first 09IV was spotted in 2006, three years after the first 09III was spotted (in 2003 for the latter). But I agree that 5 years is quite reasonable. I just didn't expect the 09V to show up so quickly.

I'm aware of when 09IV emerged relative to 09III, and I think most people would've reasonably estimated that 09VI would emerge a few years after 09V as well.

But it's something else to also have fzgfzy directly give us a timeframe directly -- even if it would've been within most people's estimated timespan.

 

[Lethe]

The several different variants of 09III with low unit counts for each variant parallels the development of the destroyer fleet from the late 1980s to mid-00s. Here's hoping that 09V is PLAN's underwater 052C, if not 052D.

 

[Blitzo]

The several different variants of 09III with low unit counts for each variant parallels the development of the destroyer fleet from the late 1980s to mid-00s. Here's hoping that 09V is PLAN's underwater 052C, if not 052D.

Yeah that comparison has been made for a couple of years now, more recently due to the proven existence of many 09III variants in low unit counts -- but before that it also related to indications that Bohai was looking to perhaps finally mass produce 09V (and presumably 09VI) that Henri K had documented fairly well in his blog posts over the last few years.

Mass production of an SSN and SSBN class -- possibly or probably from the outset -- would certainly parallel the 052D and 055 pattern of production and would likely reflect some degree of PLAN confidence or satisfaction with the class' capabilities or competitiveness.

 

[Blitzo]

Only vague words give "big shrimps" enough leeway.

Obviously. Still, it means we have to try and interpret the possibilities of what their vague words could mean.