09III/09IV (093/094) Nuclear Submarine Thread

[tphuang]

It has been discussed to death approximately where the sub noise levels are on this thread. Especially before the 093B dropped.

Sure I can dig up some page numbers for you later. But how about you first answer the question you have been avoiding in the start? Since I was the one that started asking first.

I asked you:

You're saying that the designers would deliberately somehow fuck up the dimensions of the sub so that it can't fit the quieting materials it's supposed to fit. That's an extraordinary claim.

lol, do you even know the history of 093?

093B is constrained by the legacy of 093 hull. There is only so much you can do with it.

Go listen to some Shilao podcast on this issue.

You may want to refer to this declassified report after the first two 093 came out on just how noisy it is



So yeah, they built it the way it is because that was the tech available at the time and China had to keep going to keep its supply chain going.

Has an engineer that worked on these projects ever commented on this???

It really stretches my belief that they would make a whole design and only after building multiple realize they need to fit more internals in it.

So, I think @Blitzo and I both had access to some pretty credible source on the stealth of the very last 093A. Note that I say very last 093As (2017 & 2018 commissioned ones) were probably in the same ballpark of Akula I in stealth. That's a pretty good point to look at things. It's probably 7 years from last 093A and first 093B. It was 8 years from the first 688I and last 688I. And then another 8 years from last 688I and first Virginia. From what I heard, VA had significant improvement in quieting technology. Such that it was able eventually become as quiet as seawolf despite the internal space differences (10m vs 12m)

So, it's entirely possible 093B will be quieter than even the last LA class, but I'd like to wait for more credible sources to be sure. It certainly is not a settled matter that it is equivalent to the earliest block of Virginia. Because that is saying China overcame 16 years of improvement in USN tech in just 8 years. And keep in mind that this was when US MIC was still quite productive and led the world in tech everywhere.

 

[Jason_]

lol, do you even know the history of 093?

093B is constrained by the legacy of 093 hull. There is only so much you can do with it.

Go listen to some Shilao podcast on this issue.

You may want to refer to this declassified report after the first two 093 came out on just how noisy it is

View attachment 146249

So yeah, they built it the way it is because that was the tech available at the time and China had to keep going to keep its supply chain going.


So, I think @Blitzo and I both had access to some pretty credible source on the stealth of the very last 093A. Note that I say very last 093As (2017 & 2018 commissioned ones) were probably in the same ballpark of Akula I in stealth. That's a pretty good point to look at things. It's probably 7 years from last 093A and first 093B. It was 8 years from the first 688I and last 688I. And then another 8 years from last 688I and first Virginia. From what I heard, VA had significant improvement in quieting technology. Such that it was able eventually become as quiet as seawolf despite the internal space differences (10m vs 12m)

So, it's entirely possible 093B will be quieter than even the last LA class, but I'd like to wait for more credible sources to be sure. It certainly is not a settled matter that it is equivalent to the earliest block of Virginia. Because that is saying China overcame 16 years of improvement in USN tech in just 8 years. And keep in mind that this was when US MIC was still quite productive and led the world in tech everywhere.

Did we listen to the same Shilao podcast? Because my impression from that paid episode is that Shilao and the PLAN are very bullish about the capability of the 093B, going so far as to compare the degree of improvement from 093 to 093B as that from T-10 (Su-27 prototype) to Su-57. Furthermore, according to Shilao, there is a strong sense in the Chinese submarine industry base that the US is progressing much slower in its next gen SSN(X) program than expected, which offers China the chance to overtake the US in SSN capability with the 095. Moreover, Yankee said that it would not be difficult for today's Chinese submarine industry base to build a 885M. He also said there would be no point to build a 095 that can only match the Virginia Block III--the goal for the PLAN is to surpass it. This suggests to me that the 093B is sufficiently capable that an improvement to recent block Virginia level is not much of an improvement.

 

[tphuang]

Did we listen to the same Shilao podcast? Because my impression from that paid episode is that Shilao and the PLAN are very bullish about the capability of the 093B, going so far as to compare the degree of improvement from 093 to 093B as that from T-10 (Su-27 prototype) to Su-57. Furthermore, according to Shilao, there is a strong sense in the Chinese submarine industry base that the US is progressing much slower in its next gen SSN(X) program than expected, which offers China the chance to overtake the US in SSN capability with the 095. Moreover, Yankee said that it would not be difficult for today's Chinese submarine industry base to build a 885M. He also said there would be no point to build a 095 that can only match the Virginia Block III--the goal for the PLAN is to surpass it. This suggests to me that the 093B is sufficiently capable that an improvement to recent block Virginia level is not much of an improvement.

Shilao had multiple podcast on 093B and 093 series in general. And he talks about the limitations of 093 hull, it's history and the current optimism on 093B.

There is no difficulty to build a 885M level submarine, but it is one thing to build such sub with a 12m wide hull vs say a 8m wide hull.

So yes, I would expect 095 to be quite stealthy, because it is expected to be quite large and that affords a lot of advanced quieting tech as well as sensors and compute to be built in.

But what they get to with 093B, that's a big question mark. If I'm lucky, maybe I might get further tips on this in a couple of years after they start to carry out missions.

 

[Blitzo]

It has been discussed to death approximately where the sub noise levels are on this thread. Especially before the 093B dropped.

Sure I can dig up some page numbers for you later. But how about you first answer the question you have been avoiding in the start? Since I was the one that started asking first.

I asked you:

You're saying that the designers would deliberately somehow fuck up the dimensions of the sub so that it can't fit the quieting materials it's supposed to fit. That's an extraordinary claim.

Has an engineer that worked on these projects ever commented on this???

It really stretches my belief that they would make a whole design and only after building multiple realize they need to fit more internals in it.

lol, do you even know the history of 093?

093B is constrained by the legacy of 093 hull. There is only so much you can do with it.

Go listen to some Shilao podcast on this issue.

You may want to refer to this declassified report after the first two 093 came out on just how noisy it is

View attachment 146249

So yeah, they built it the way it is because that was the tech available at the time and China had to keep going to keep its supply chain going.

I think there is some miscommunication occurring here, because there is a difference between having a submarine that is "wide enough to fit as much quieting systems it needs" versus "constrained by the legacy of the 093 hull".

The difference shouldn't be "is the 09III family hull form going to allow 09IIIB to be as quiet/capable as it ever needs to be" but rather "how quiet/capable can the 09IIIB hull be relative to other contemporary SSNs".

It is true that the 09III/09IIIB hullform being a double hull submarine (thus a smaller pressure hull diameter than the likes of 688/i and VA, meaning comparatively less volume to fit dampening) places some limits to the degree of acoustic silencing relative to single hull submarines that have a larger pressure hull diameter of a similar level of technology.

But relative to other contemporary SSNs, the question is how much can the 09IIIB make up for its smaller pressure hull compared to contemporaries by having more advanced and/or miniaturized acoustic silencing and dampening technology and industrial precision. For example, can a 09IIIB produced in the early 2020s with 2020s PRC production and silencing technology in a smaller pressure hull diameter approach an early VA built in the very early 2000s with 2000s US production and silencing technology in a larger pressure hull?

My personally view regarding the 09III hull family, including in the latest iteration of 09IIIB, is one where both of the below can simultaneously technically be true:
- 09IIIB may be able to exceed 688i and perhaps approach VA in terms of acoustic silencing in many regimes
- 09IIIB can be an unattractive hullform for long term PLAN needs and very insufficient for PLAN SSN requirements into the 21st century

I think that at this point, having acoustic silencing that is competitive with 688i or even VA, is something that the the PRC nuclear submarine industry can obtain, certainly for a larger pressure hull like what we expect on 09V, and probably even for the 09IIIB hullform for the PLAN's nuclear submarine industry now.

However, there is more to a desirable nuclear submarine capability than merely silencing.
It about having that acoustic silencing along with a hullform that is able to accommodate sufficient weapons, sensors, speed, maneuverability, endurance, and networking that can allow them to properly operate in and threaten surface, subsurface and land targets out into the central or even eastern pacific.

For the above full spectrum , is is reasonable to saythat 09IIIB (and 09III hullform it has its lineage from) is poorly suited for that mission, partly relating to its hullform and pressure hull diameter.

 

[THX 1138]

The 688i still represents about half the US Navy's active SSN fleet. If the Type 093B matches (or exceeds) the quietness of the 688i, the US Navy would be engulfed in panic and hysteria right now. But they do not appear to be particularly concerned. And I think that says a lot about their internal assessment of the Type 093B. Regardless of what they say in public, I just don't believe they perceive the 093B as a genuine threat. They certainly don't act like it.

 

[Iron Man]

The 688i still represents about half the US Navy's active SSN fleet. If the Type 093B matches (or exceeds) the quietness of the 688i, the US Navy would be engulfed in panic and hysteria right now. But they do not appear to be particularly concerned. And I think that says a lot about their internal assessment of the Type 093B. Regardless of what they say in public, I just don't believe they perceive the 093B as a genuine threat. They certainly don't act like it.

I don't think they'd be in a panic if the 093B matches or exceeds the 688i. The USN is starting to retire the 688i class, if you didn't know already.

 

[Blitzo]

The 688i still represents about half the US Navy's active SSN fleet. If the Type 093B matches (or exceeds) the quietness of the 688i, the US Navy would be engulfed in panic and hysteria right now. But they do not appear to be particularly concerned. And I think that says a lot about their internal assessment of the Type 093B. Regardless of what they say in public, I just don't believe they perceive the 093B as a genuine threat. They certainly don't act like it.

I suspect there are elements of the US intelligence community and USN intelligence side who have an accurate gauge about where the trajectory of PLAN SSN procurement will be going, both qualitatively and quantitatively.

But I do not think those elements have yet reached sufficient scale in context of the "obvious evidence" that is visible to people and in context of the institutional inertial perception of PLAN SSN capabilities of recent decades.

I wouldn't be surprised if genuine panic only emerges after it is too late.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

The 688i still represents about half the US Navy's active SSN fleet. If the Type 093B matches (or exceeds) the quietness of the 688i, the US Navy would be engulfed in panic and hysteria right now. But they do not appear to be particularly concerned. And I think that says a lot about their internal assessment of the Type 093B. Regardless of what they say in public, I just don't believe they perceive the 093B as a genuine threat. They certainly don't act like it.

A lot of this energy:

But when Defense News asked Brendan Mulvaney, the director of the U.S. Air Force’s China Aerospace Studies Institute, whether China currently has the capability to develop these advanced fighters, the response was slightly less optimistic for Beijing.

“Today? No. Twenty years from now? Absolutely. And we’ve seen this time and time again. We’re getting better at not ... underestimating what the Chinese system is capable of when it sets its mind to it, [ed.: apparently not]” Mulvaney said.

Published June 24 2024. Six months later...

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

However, there is more to a desirable nuclear submarine capability than merely silencing.
It about having that acoustic silencing along with a hullform that is able to accommodate sufficient weapons, sensors, speed, maneuverability, endurance, and networking that can allow them to properly operate in and threaten surface, subsurface and land targets out into the central or even eastern pacific.

For the above full spectrum , is is reasonable to say that 09IIIB (and 09III hullform it has its lineage from) is poorly suited for that mission, partly relating to its hullform and pressure hull diameter.

So what you're saying is that the 093B of the 2020s is actually worse than even the late-Los Angeles that was launched last in the mid-1990s?

In that case - Sorry, I'm not sure how to even believe such an absurd, logic-defying statement.

 

[Blitzo]

So what you're saying is that the 093B of the 2020s is actually worse than even the late-Los Angeles that was launched last in the mid-1990s?

In that case - Sorry, I'm not sure how to even believe such an absurd, logic-defying statement.

No.

I am saying that the above ambitious mission capability/profile I described ("having that acoustic silencing along with a hullform that is able to accommodate sufficient weapons, sensors, speed, maneuverability, endurance, and networking that can allow them to properly operate in and threaten surface, subsurface and land targets out into the central or even eastern pacific") is one which NO current SSN in the water today is well suited to do, including but not limited to: 688I, 09IIIB, Virginia, Yasen/-M, Seawolf, Astute etc.
However, seeing as we were talking about 09IIIB and its role/longevity for the PLAN's SSN procurement, I only specified 09IIIB in my previous post rather than include all of the contemporary SSNs.

I suspect 09V and SSN(X) and maybe SSN AUKUS will be designed with that more ambitious mission profile in mind.