09III/09IV (093/094) Nuclear Submarine Thread

Blitzo

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We'll just never get an exact answer, or only decades down the line. We also don't know how quiet the US subs are, it's all just guesswork based on the clues of how far along a country's industries are + how new the designs are.

A more accurate estimation is to say there are overlapping confidence intervals for Virginia/688i/093B/Akula/Yasen and it's very much up to imagination/speculation in which direction the confidence intervals overlap.

I'd hope it would be more informed speculation and estimates rather than imagination.

In general, it's just better to coach the language in uncertainty whenever talking about PLAN nuclear submarine quietening.
 

Index

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I'd hope it would be more informed speculation and estimates rather than imagination.

In general, it's just better to coach the language in uncertainty whenever talking about PLAN nuclear submarine quietening.
Well if someone is telling you they know exactly how the confidence intervals relate to eachother, they're either bullshitting or they've served both on an US SSN and a PLAN SSN.

So you're hoping for something quite unrealistic.
 

Blitzo

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Well if someone is telling you they know exactly how the confidence intervals relate to eachother, they're either bullshitting or they've served both on an US SSN and a PLAN SSN.

So you're hoping for something quite unrealistic.

???

I'm not hoping for anything -- I don't expect anyone to say they know exactly how the confidence intervals are. I am saying that in general, if anyone wants to ask or answer a question about the relative acoustic silencing of PLAN submarines, that they should always err on the side of being unsure so they don't end up digging themselves into a hole that they are unable to properly defend.

Always leave two or three explicit remarks about the unknowable nature and how even educated guesses are ultimately only based on speculation and people are free to take it or leave it.
In turn, avoiding words that are too confident or presumptuous as well should also be done.

I don't think that's an unrealistic expectation.
 

Index

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???

I'm not hoping for anything -- I don't expect anyone to say they know exactly how the confidence intervals are. I am saying that in general, if anyone wants to ask or answer a question about the relative acoustic silencing of PLAN submarines, that they should always err on the side of being unsure so they don't end up digging themselves into a hole that they are unable to properly defend.

Always leave two or three explicit remarks about the unknowable nature and how even educated guesses are ultimately only based on speculation and people are free to take it or leave it.
In turn, avoiding words that are too confident or presumptuous as well should also be done.

I don't think that's an unrealistic expectation.
Ah, you meant the first guy who asked for a quite direct comparison.

Yes. It's a very inexact science, as Ive stated earlier.
 

Blitzo

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Ah, you meant the first guy who asked for a quite direct comparison.

Yes. It's a very inexact science, as Ive stated earlier.

It's not specifically directed at anyone per se.

In my reply to you in post 3869, the "====" signifies a separation from my initial reply to you specifically, whereas the rest is not a reply to you.


In general it would just be useful to the discourse around PLAN nuclear submarines if the average level of confidence around discussing their quietening was dialled down a bit.
If there is ever an opportunity to present one's position in a more guarded and meek manner, it should be taken imo. Overreach is the enemy.
 

para80

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The only halfway meaningful source on submarine quietness levels is actual submariner accounts, usually decades after the fact. We did find out a fair bit of useful information about capabilities of US and UK designs in their interactions with Soviet boats that way. Of course certain quarters will always dismiss even such accounts as being biased or even intentionally misleading (which may even be accurate for some of them). That said when correlating it with the "other side's" CONOPS, certain claims can be reasonably validated.

In any case, thats all just a long winded way to say, as Blitzo above already pointed out, the caveats are deeper than the Marianas Trench and it will (hopefully, ie no conflict arising) be decades before we sorta kinda know.
 

by78

General
Spotted again.

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