That hump shadow could equally be caused by something on the dockside, same as the crane shadow. Also, what does it say on the plaque on the blue felt anyone? Because if it is saying length 126m that is well off.
09III/09IV (093/094) Nuclear Submarine Thread
- Thread starter SinoSoldier
- Start date
Length: 126m
Diameter: 11m
Underwater top speed: 30 knots
Displacement: 6200t
Missile range: 2500km
Personally I'm not fully convinced at this model, some parts of the details seem a bit different to the "other" 09IIIB model we got in 2022 or the ?official? art of the 09IIIB we got in 2023.
However at the same time, the ?official? art of the 09IIIB in 2023 depicted 8x3 VLS compared to the 6x3 VLs on the 09IIIB model in 2022, so I wonder if perhaps there are even some different subvariants for the 09IIIBs -- perhaps the first few boats have 6x3 VLS (and are correspondingly a bit shorter) while perhaps there are some more recent or yet to be launched 09IIIBs with 8x3 VLS that are correspondingly a bit longer.
Every one we've seen so far is ~110m in length. As for the "official" art, was this not 2x8 VLS, not 3X8? Anyway, I too am not convinced by this model unless it is supposed to be a putative 09IIIC with longer VLS cells.
Technically the "official" art is unable to discern confidently if it is 8x1, 8x2, or 8x3, but considering we know based on the 2022 model (and an associated paper in the past) that they were looking at three VLS per row, I consider it overwhelmingly likely that the official art was depicting 8x3 rather than 8x2.
After all the difference between 8x3 and 6x3 (on the 2022 model) is just a plug in module which lengthens the hull a bit, whereas the difference between 8x2 and 6x3 is just.... nonsensical.
I personally have no strong feelings about this new model nor the "official" art from 2023, both may be simply flawed depictions.
However, the idea of going from a 6x3 to 8x3 VLS setup across hull builds for a class, is actually pretty reasonable, and probably one of the simpler ways to give it an "intra-class" block upgrade.
An extra row wouldn't lead to a 16m increase in length, though, or require the addition of a hump, unless the VLS themselves were somewhat larger.
Technically it would be an extra two rows.
But yes, I doubt two extra rows of VLS itself would produce an increase in length of 16m. For all we know a hull plug would also include some other things.
As for the model itself, I wonder about the details it depicts, for example the size of the hump as well as the tail fins being quite raked backwards relative to the 2022 model or the 2023 "official" art.
... However if we assume that the numbers on the model's plaque can be entertained and rationalized by us, well the idea of a slightly lengthened 09IIIB sub-variant with a hull plug in that features extra two rows of VLS as well as some extra bits and bobs (crew habitation, storage for perishables) that adds 16m from the baseline 09IIIB length is not implausible.
Our job as always is to wait and see if there is a 09IIIB variant that emerges with a 126m ish hull length (as well as of course awaiting for the 09IVB, and of course the 09V and 09VI as well)... but the idea of a slightly longer 09IIIB is fairly reasonable.
Looking at that photo at the top again, it shows a sub in the old drydock in the Western part of the harbour. Consequently it is at least as likely to be an 09III/A in for refit as it is an 09IIIB. Why would you put a brand new sub straight into the old drydock?
A 094/A SSBN photographed sailing through the Taiwan Strait from south to north by a Wanwanese fisherman, presumably towards Bohai for maintenance. Posted by @SonodaHiroki on Twitter and @沉默的山羊 on Weibo.
An academic paper on a certain submarine VLS tube-launched missile/craft. Posted by @鎏鎏岁月 on Weibo.
