09III/09IV (093/094) Nuclear Submarine Thread

[ACuriousPLAFan]

View attachment 129258
The last sentence on China's first SSGN is interesting.

Excerpt from the testimony of Admiral John C. Aquilino, commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, before the US Congress on March 18, 2024.

That should be referring to the 093B SSNs, though the 093Bs definitely shouldn't be taken in the same breath as the converted-Ohio SSGNs.

 

[kwaigonegin]

View attachment 129258
The last sentence on China's first SSGN is interesting.

Excerpt from the testimony of Admiral John C. Aquilino, commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, before the US Congress on March 18, 2024.

The good admiral is spot on. In the last 5 yrs, I think it's not a stretch to say PLA's overall firepower and military capabilities have increased 200%.
Unless something catastrophic happens to it's economy etc, i think it's fair to say it will likely increased 2X again by 2030.
By then it will easily have over 1k J20s and J35s and 4 carriers in PLAN with 2 of them supercarriers.
PLAN's organic air assets will increase more than 2X with that much more deck space available with the new carriers, 076s coming online and possibly a couple more 075s.
Major surface combatants will be 055s, 052Ds and 054Bs.
Biggest improvement will likely be subsurface. The newer generation subs are much quiter and certainly on par with the Improved LA class.
While not as quiet as the Virginia, it is still a very formidable opponent.

 

[AndrewS]

The good admiral is spot on. In the last 5 yrs, I think it's not a stretch to say PLA's overall firepower and military capabilities have increased 200%.
Unless something catastrophic happens to it's economy etc, i think it's fair to say it will likely increased 2X again by 2030.
By then it will easily have over 1k J20s and J35s and 4 carriers in PLAN with 2 of them supercarriers.
PLAN's organic air assets will increase more than 2X with that much more deck space available with the new carriers, 076s coming online and possibly a couple more 075s.
Major surface combatants will be 055s, 052Ds and 054Bs.
Biggest improvement will likely be subsurface. The newer generation subs are much quiter and certainly on par with the Improved LA class.
While not as quiet as the Virginia, it is still a very formidable opponent.

If you try to model this from a financial standpoint, I previously got a doubling of China's advanced weapons "stockpile" from a 2021-2030 timeframe. This was a few years ago, so I wouldn't be surprised if Chinese military spending has increased from the previous assumptions outlined below.

If I do a basic model which attempts to estimate the "stock" of advanced Chinese weapons systems, I see this doubling in the 2021-2030 timeframe.

Now, there are a whole bunch of assumptions here eg. weapons typically last 30 years, 1.7% of GDP is spent on the military, 4% GDP growth, etc etc

But it seems to me that the military balance will still continue to tilt towards China every year - unless the US becomes way more efficient at what it spends on and also sees a significant increase in military spending.

And even then, that could just spur China to modestly increase military spending from 1.7% to 2.5% of GDP, and get back to the same trend line anyway.

 

[kwaigonegin]

If you try to model this from a financial standpoint, I previously got a doubling of China's advanced weapons "stockpile" from a 2021-2030 timeframe. This was a few years ago, so I wouldn't be surprised if Chinese military spending has increased from the previous assumptions outlined below.

China as a whole not just military but even more so on the civilian sector has transitioned from a more copy and paste mode to a more experimental and innovation posture.
When that happens, budgeting increases exponentially.
The PLA has also transformed to a more professional military from the 'peasant army' days. With that comes exponentially better living conditions which adds tremendous cost to the defence budget.
Everything from better food, better boots, better gear, better bunks, better healthcare exponentially increases the military budget.
As the saying goes a well fed, well trained, happy warfighter is far more important than the newest missile or fighter plane. Ideally you want both.

 

[charles18]

The good admiral is spot on.

Not exactly submarine related but this is military related.
Of all the geo-political analysts on the internet who have "an opinion" about China's military capacity, There are those who are skeptical / dismissive of China:
George Friedman
Gordon G. Chang
Peter Zeihan
Sarah C. Paine
Francis Fukuyama
Do you see a pattern, what do all of these people have in common? None of them come from a military background and that's the point.
All of the geo-political analysts on the internet that I heard of that come from a military back ground share the same opinion: China is the real deal.

The only people who believe China to be a "Paper Tiger" are a bunch of Academics who spent their who career sitting comfortably behind a desk. They never had to put their "boots on the ground".

 

[bebops]

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Big warship carrier and submarine days are over. Loyal man, mantra uuv, or any kind of unmanned platform are the real deal.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

China as a whole not just military but even more so on the civilian sector has transitioned from a more copy and paste mode to a more experimental and innovation posture.
When that happens, budgeting increases exponentially.
The PLA has also transformed to a more professional military from the 'peasant army' days. With that comes exponentially better living conditions which adds tremendous cost to the defence budget.
Everything from better food, better boots, better gear, better bunks, better healthcare exponentially increases the military budget.
As the saying goes a well fed, well trained, happy warfighter is far more important than the newest missile or fighter plane. Ideally you want both.

Healthcare isn't part of the military budget. China has public health insurance.

 

[ismellcopium]

Is there any info on how many 093s & 093As there are? Pentagon reports/English wiki say 6 but Chinese wiki says several more.

 

[kwaigonegin]

Healthcare isn't part of the military budget. China has public health insurance.

I understand but medical care for trauma or even people trained to be medics, corpsman or medical related equipment and medical infrastructure in the military would all fall under defense.
Hospital ships, military hospitals etc. are all part of the transformation from.a 3rd class peasant army to a professional one was the point I was making.

 

[AndrewS]

I understand but medical care for trauma or even people trained to be medics, corpsman or medical related equipment and medical infrastructure in the military would all fall under defense.
Hospital ships, military hospitals etc. are all part of the transformation from.a 3rd class peasant army to a professional one was the point I was making.

Consider that the US military has a very large number of active combat missions and the attendant casualties. So the regular US military budget is always burdened with the additional cost of a medical establishment sized for a moderate? level of casualties.

In comparison, the Chinese military is at peace.