His argument is that a new submarine was seen in drydock on the old western side of the yard alongside two subs at pier, which combined with the visible support cradles on the launch barge whose timing could coincide with a new launch in May (prior to June when the new GE pic emerged) makes him suspect all three are 09IIIBs.
Personally I am not convinced, because I feel like the evidence is circumstantial at best -- i.e. the satellite imagery quality is not good enough to determine if one of any of the three may be an old 09III/A coming back for maintenance, and the cradles on the barge might have been for another purpose such as just a training run or something.
Most importantly, there are enough satellites on Bohai now that I think if a new 09IIIB was launched, I feel like a private satellite company probably would've picked up on it and defense media customers would have made us aware of it.
Of course it isn't impossible that a new 09IIIB launch happened, but at this stage I'm doubtful.
