Maybe. Maybe not. I expect the biggest ships to get the smallest numbers.
I never expected the "1" for Liaoning because this ship is only an intermediate step.
Giving Liaoning the "1" would also make sense because it's the PLAN's first carrier. Chronologically, it's a good number.
But the rules for pennant numbering are not strictly chronological. The prevailing observation is that different ranges of numbers means the ship belong in different classes, subdivided into different fleets. So we theorized that maybe 1-5 was reserved for NSF, 6-10 for ESF, 11-15 for SSF... etc. And depending on which fleet it went to, Shangdong might have been 1, 6, or 11. But clearly, the PLAN considers 002 a training carrier in the same class and category as 001, and so they are 16 and 17. If 003 is considered a training carrier, it will be 18. Otherwise, I expect it to be assigned to ESF or SSF, so 6 or 11.
We should note that the conventional fleet-based numbering format is also based on shipc lass. For the 055s, 101 and 102 are NSF, while 105 is SSF. So we can expect that 103 and 104 will be assigned to ESF, while 106, 107, and 108 will be for SSF. A new class gets a new number range which is then divided between the three fleets. So the 055As should take up 109-116 after the vintage 051s and 052s are retired. And as we know, the Type 052Ds start from 117 assigned to the NSF, 131 in the ESF, and 161 in the SSF.
Considering that Hainan is 31 and I assume assigned to SSF, I believe that 21-25 is reserved for NSF LHAs, and 26-30 for ESF. And since LHAs make a lot more sense belonging in the south rather than the north, I would expect SSF LHAs to take up 31-40. As there are only 3 Type 075s so far, it's not enough to fill the given range, so these numbers should also apply to the 076s. I can see a run of perhaps 6 to 8 ships of 075 total, and 076 to fill the rest.