On why I think it's a ballistic missile and not an ABM:
Usually anti air missiles are hot launched due to reaction times. Larger ballistic missiles especially heavier ones are usually cold launched because the exhaust to get it up in the air is too tremendous.
I thought being cold launched ruled out ballistic missiles since I was thinking of SRBM like Iskander but realized ABM would likely be hot launched and that there are plenty of larger BMs that cold launch.
Obvious counter examples are HHQ9 (cold launched SAM) and YJ18 (biggest known PLAN conventional missile before the new possible hypersonic-hot launched missile).
I don’t think there are any rules or conventions that the PLA follows when it comes to choosing between hot or cold launch for missiles, which is probably one of the main reasons it went for the UVLS that can accommodate both.
Thus, if they are navalising existing land based missiles, I think they will just keep whatever the launch method is from the land based systems for the naval version to save on costs to having to redesign existing missiles for a different launch method.
The land based HQ9 is cold launched while land based YJ18s are hot launched.
This possible hypersonic being a newly designed missile does mean it has the benefit of a clean sheet design. In which case, one should see what the pros and cons are for hot vs cold launch.
The biggest reasons for choosing cold launch for me are:
- maximise missile diameter at the cost of some length
- reduced wear and tear on the VLS cells from launching such heavy missiles compared to hot launch
- commonality if also developing a sub launched version