And they will continue with the rate for two more years. In fact 10 might be a coincidental peak.
China will also decommission many older class ships. A qualitative and quantitative push is being made as of right now. In any case, shipbuilding will either plateau or decline within the next five years. The end of this 3 to 5 year spree, China will be stabilizing its shipbuilding and ensure that its fleet is highly capable, technology intense, future proof and competitive. Basically a world class navy.
Large Surface Combatant (DDG) numbers will be maintained to be roughly 50 ships while china will make efforts to retire and replace its many small tonnage ships to properly answer the "Distributed Lethality" doctrine pursued by its prime adversary. What according to you can be done to counter a networked, agile and potent swarm of capable lighter tonnage ships ?
China doesn't face a "networked, agile and potent swarm of capable lighter tonnage ships "
The US Navy is really top-heavy with large AEGIS ships.
In comparison, it is the Chinese Navy which is has a "networked, agile and potent swarm of capable lighter tonnage ships "
Eg.
83x Type-022 (500ton) Missile Boats
70+ Type-056 (1500ton) Corvettes
30+ Type-054 (4000ton) Frigates
Then you have the Chinese Destroyers and larger ships.
You ask the question about the Chinese response to the US battle network.
I'd start with this CNAS report:
Beating the Americans at Their Own Game
An Offset Strategy with Chinese Characteristics
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I agree shipbuilding will plateau or decline in the next 5 years, but that the "stable" level will still be quite high eg. 3-6 DDG per year.
And remember the Chinese Navy no longer has many older ships to decommission.
There are like 10? older destroyers left and we already have 40 modern destroyers recently launched.
If China only produces 10 destroyers in the next 3 years, that already takes us to your fleet of 50 modern destroyers
So are the shipyards going to completely stop destroyer production for the next 15 years?
Hence I expect most of the new destroyer construction will be growth.