055 DDG Large Destroyer Thread

[Tam]

Time will tell, since the acquisition is unknown (numbers & types)....

Secondly, I don't want to go on this old mantra that China would not share XYZ with Pakistan as its currently in use with their forces....

EW is something you don't share with your allies. You can make EW equipment tailored for your export customers but you don't issue the ones you use in your own military.

 

[antiterror13]

China needed a heavyweight 100+ VLS cruiser

guess they got 6 now

will be 16 055 in no time (8 Type 055 and 8 Type 055A)

 

[Tam]

Some of the old ships being MLU’d could well end up as military aid gifts rather than return to PLAN frontline service if the PLAN is keen to replace older ships without totally writing off any investments they already made on the MLU.

That could also be why the MLUs are progressing so slowly, if the PLAN is shopping around for foreign clients willing to part finance the (most expensive) electronics and weapons suite upgrades.

I heard the possibility that Bangladesh might be interested on the two 054, but maybe Pakistan can go for both the 054 and the two 052B. Pakistan however needs to work out something with the Ukraine for the maintenance of the DW80 engines of the 052B however. But I also don't see much of political problem on that.

If Pakistan is keen on expanding its surface fleet rapidly on the cheap, this could be an excellent opportunity, especially with the two 054s; and maybe 051Cs as well, if they want to add fleet air defence to their toolkit. Since the 051Cs are using Russian radars and SAMs, I think the PLAN could potentially let them go ‘as is’, with only minimal modifications to allow them to network with the rest of the Pakistani fleet needed.

Sales arms agreements usually have clauses that prevent you from selling the equipment to a third party without their permission. Given the Russians, Pakistan is what they have in mind because the Russians don't want to offend the Indians. Why would or should Pakistan want something the Indians have or have technological access to? Knowing what they are dealing with is winning half of the battle, and that is already a half win for the Indians. So 051C is likely a no go.

The steam powered ships like the two 051C and the four Sovs are a pain to maintain, and it is wise to forget about them. But I'm not too hot about the DW80 engines on the 052B either, considering how one of the 052B, the Guangzhuo, broke down in the middle of her Gulf of Aden escort task mission and had to be towed back. They never used the 052B after that for those missions. The steam powered 051B was only used one time, and after that, never again, the 051C and the Sovs were never brought up for the escort use.

So in my mind, its better to say away from those ships as possible. The PN sticking with the 054A/P is smart.

On a broader note, I think the length of the current and future global trade slumps would also be a massively important factor in PLAN capital ship procurement, although the correlation is likely to be the opposite of what many may think.

China sees shipbuilding as a core strategical national security industry, that means it will do all in its power to help it weather the current, and any future slump in commercial shopping demand; and the way China can do that is with military naval contracts.

The length of time new PLAN capital ships spend tied up at port after launch and even handover is an import indicator imho of how much the current warship building boom is beyond the PLAN’s original plans.

It is very out of character for the PLA to have such major hardware assets sitting ideal waiting on crews and/or subsystems, because the PLA is normally so meticulous and forward thinking that when they put plans into action, things normally run like clockwork. In addition, the PLA has always operated under the unofficial motto of ‘people wait for kit, not the other way around’. In that the PLA would much rather have fully trained up crews waiting on new kit to be completed than to have new kit sitting around for crews to be trained up sufficiently to start using them.

All of this points to the current shipbuilding pace as an unplanned for outlier rather than part of some Chinese master plan. And as such, it would be dangerous to assume that the current pace of warship construction is to be the new normal going forwards, especially if there is a global economic recovery and commercial orders picks up again.

In my view, the current capital ship production rate is determined primarily by the minimum actively levels needed to keep Chinese yards employed, to avoid having to lay off large numbers of highly skilled workers. That would not only create social and economic instability to the shipbuilding cities of China, but would also be skills that are expensive and time consuming to re-generate if lost.

The current breakneck speed at which Chinese yards are pumping out new warships are also likely to be impacted by the lack of commercial orders, as shipyards are likely to be putting far more people on shift to work on the warships than would normally be possible if they also had a massive commercial order book to work on.

All of this means that if there is a major global economic recovery in the near to medium future, with commercial shipping orders picking up once more, I would expect PLAN capital ship production to start easing off to a more conventional rate.

Conversely, if the current trade war and global economic slump continues, I would expect PLAN capital ship production to carry on at its current breakneck pace, if not accelerate.

From an overarching strategical point of view, this also makes good sense, because good relations between China and the US would be a critical contributing factor to fostering a global economic recovery and boom. If Sino-US relations markedly improve, there would also be less cause for China to need such a massive and powerful navy, since everyone knows there is only one foe China would need such a navy to counter. OTOH, if the current Sino-US trade war and general great power competition continues and intensifies, we are probably looking at a new Cold War, in which case the new arms race is well and truly on, and the PLAN would make every ship it can get.

China is addicted to manufacturing like a drug addict is to crack. However, they have more cost effective alternatives to satisfying the shipbuilder crack besides building warships. For example, building more Chinese Coast Guard and MSC ships. But more importantly, have one of the SOE shipping companies --- notably the super shipping conglomerate COSCO --- order and buy some more ships. COSCO is the biggest shipping company or entity in the history of the world --- it has over 1,400 ships.

Despite the world trade slowdown, shipping orders are still pouring in for different reasons. One of this is market change. Going from oil to natural gas means more LNG contracts. Both Jiangnan and Hudong Zhonghua are strongly pursuing the LNG market, and so is Dalian Shipping Company. There is still demand for ever bigger container or box ships, as big as 25,000 TEU. You still need ever larger bulk freighters or bulkers for carrying ore. The Ore must flow. And all the sea ways lead back to China. The tighter emissions and economy requirements means more ships are going to be forced into retirement and scrapping to allow for a new generation of more green friendly and economically efficient commercial ships that are powered by LNG.

All these ships, along with COSCO and other Chinese shipping companies, play a vital role for China's energy and resource security. And that is probably gives you the reason to have an ever stronger navy to protect these ships and the vital trade lanes. I tend to view the Gulf of Aden missions as a rehearsal for the PLAN to take this role.

 

[Pika]

Current 055 numbers?

10 units

• 1 - in service
• 1 - in trail
• 4 - launched
• 4 - various construction stage

Might as well include 052D numbers

25 units

• 12 - in service
• 5 - in trails
• 6 - launched
• 2 - various construction stage

35 combined modern surface units [43 units if the 6 Type-052C & 2 Type-052B are included]
So 43 units In roughly 2 decades (2000 - 2020/2022). Although rate of construction has increased since 2010.

I don't know where most of you are getting this 200 DDG estimates but even the USN workhorse Burke class destroyers have 67 in service.
Their numbers altogether
88 units

• 67 - in service
• 9 - launch/construction
• 12 - in contract

 

[Pika]

I should note that the some in the 12 in contract are recent additions. Mostly reactionary orders by Military leaders after the recent PLAN modernization and expansion.

These 12 numbers could decline if LSC (Large Surface Combatant) plan comes into fruition or increase if they axe or delay their LSC plan.

I'll bet they will increase these numbers or build a Flight III improvement or a Fight IV to function as an LSC role.

 

[Tam]

Isn't 052D up to the 26th? Lets see if if reaches the number 30 milestone.

 

[Deino]

Guys ... not political discussion!

 

[Tyler]

I should note that the some in the 12 in contract are recent additions. Mostly reactionary orders by Military leaders after the recent PLAN modernization and expansion.

These 12 numbers could decline if LSC (Large Surface Combatant) plan comes into fruition or increase if they axe or delay their LSC plan.

I'll bet they will increase these numbers or build a Flight III improvement or a Fight IV to function as an LSC role.

Even Korea's shipyards are able to crank out lots of ships per year. For China, because of the size of their shipbuilding industry, they can crank out 10 DDGs per year for the next 15 years, until 200 DDGs is reached. Then they can slow down a bit.

 

[Xizor]

Even Korea's shipyards are able to crank out lots of ships per year. For China, because of the size of their shipbuilding industry, they can crank out 10 DDGs per year for the next 15 years, until 200 DDGs is reached. Then they can slow down a bit.

I expect China to downgrade the shipbuilding rate soon enough (2022). China requires to induct good sailors and impart good training to them. We don't want them ramming into Civilian Tankers. 75% the size of USN would be more than enough for China. That means 50 to 60 DDGs

 

[timepass]

@Tam ..... Before replying you, let me tell you that there is nothing matured yet & no one knows how many & which type of DDGs PN would go for. As its still in rumors criteria but through very reliable PN circles...

As said earlier, the idea behind such acquisitions are to have as many platforms as possible at fast rate with least possible expenditures ...

I heard the possibility that Bangladesh might be interested on the two 054, but maybe Pakistan can go for both the 054 and the two 052B. Pakistan however needs to work out something with the Ukraine for the maintenance of the DW80 engines of the 052B however. But I also don't see much of political problem on that.

No, because Pakistanis are working with Ukrainians on several projects such as MBTs .... where there are ToT also in work for MBT engines... so IMO no issue...

Sales arms agreements usually have clauses that prevent you from selling the equipment to a third party without their permission. Given the Russians, Pakistan is what they have in mind because the Russians don't want to offend the Indians. Why would or should Pakistan want something the Indians have or have technological access to? Knowing what they are dealing with is winning half of the battle, and that is already a half win for the Indians. So 051C is likely a no go.

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RD 93 is the prime example & honey moon days are over between Russia & India, in fact things are very unfriendly after SU-57 pull back by India... Secondly majority of gadgets (Radars/weapon suits etc) are Chinese origin....

The steam powered ships like the two 051C and the four Sovs are a pain to maintain, and it is wise to forget about them. But I'm not too hot about the DW80 engines on the 052B either, considering how one of the 052B, the Guangzhuo, broke down in the middle of her Gulf of Aden escort task mission and had to be towed back. They never used the 052B after that for those missions. The steam powered 051B was only used one time, and after that, never again, the 051C and the Sovs were never brought up for the escort use.

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Agreed, but again PN doctrine is to defend its waters & keep SLoC & EEZ open & has no such long escort mission intentions. Hence, this is might not PN concern...