War is always a political accelerant. If we cede that China could effectively contest and win the first and second island chains, we also cede that China will be in a position to dictate the eviction of the US military in those areas. If China could effectively neutralize and destroy US bases in the region, they wouldn't just sit idly by after doing so. Outcomes to that effect would be followed by taking that territory to prevent its further use against them. For obvious reasons this is far more likely for the first island chain than second island chain, but it’s also true that effectively holding the first island chain would confer very strong advantages in efforts to take the second island chain. If China fought a war with the US eviction of the US military would effectively be the outcome they would be fighting for (This is why it's actually not in the US's interest to escalate tensions and stir conflicts with China, because any disruptions in the current security balance naturally tilts the geopolitical equilibrium against the US's position).Since I was not talking about western pacific but mid pacific, I won't comment further on that. Obviously China would have it easier the closer the fight is to its shores.
As for the claim above, ceding actual islands to China? For that to happen, so many other things have to happen first. Japan must force out US military and become more or less neutral. Taiwan needs to be neutral during a larger China-US conflict or already be under Chinese control. And even then China being able to actually take and own (not just deny US access to) various Mariana Islands would require China having near parity in numbers and quality to USN and USAF.
With real world politics, that's something very long way off. Decades needed for political climate to change to accommodate all that.
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