asif iqbal
Lieutenant General
This basically confirms the satellite photo from few weeks ago
055 DDG Large Destroyer Thread
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Now that's a naval buildup!
The US used to be able to mass produce warships like that. I still have a 1965-66 edition of Jane's Fighting Ships and can see what the construction rates for the USN looked like back then. In the early to mid 1960's, we were building 10 or more nuclear subs and 10 frigates a year. We allowed that capability to atrophy and I can't help thinking that's going to come back and bite us in the rear at some point.
You've got to hand it to the Chinese. They have made extremely impressive progress in the last few decades. Give them a few more decades and they will have a fleet able to challenge the USN for dominance of the Pacific and Indian Oceans.
The US used to be able to mass produce warships like that. I still have a 1965-66 edition of Jane's Fighting Ships and can see what the construction rates for the USN looked like back then. In the early to mid 1960's, we were building 10 or more nuclear subs and 10 frigates a year. We allowed that capability to atrophy and I can't help thinking that's going to come back and bite us in the rear at some point.
You've got to hand it to the Chinese. They have made extremely impressive progress in the last few decades. Give them a few more decades and they will have a fleet able to challenge the USN for dominance of the Pacific and Indian Oceans.
Don't need a few more decades for that. Maybe just one. A few more decades at this rate (and a few more overseas bases) and you will get global parity with the US.
Quite possibly. They sure are advancing fast. There are some areas the PLAN is still behind in, such as nuclear powered subs, aircraft carriers and carrier based aviation, but they have the will, the shipbuilding capacity and are catching up technology wise. What even more worrisome is that they have deliberately overbuilt on shipbuilding capacity and can ramp things up really fast if they need to or decide its breakout time.
Again, I go back to the naval ship construction rates the US used to maintain during the Cold War, even as late as the 1980's, and its really sobering to realize we just don't have that capacity anymore if we really need it because we allowed too many shipyards and companies that were suppliers and subcontractors for the navy and shipbuilding industry to go out of business by not maintaining enough naval construction after the Cold War ended and by not doing to more to promote our merchant marine.
You are new to this forum so you probably don't know that the overwhelming vast majority of the posters on this site would not find these developments "worrisome" in the least.
As for "breakout time", I'm fairly certain you are seeing it in action right now. The PLAN could probably build even faster if they wanted to, but this is peacetime after all. Nonetheless the PLAN is now unambiguously a navy that is increasing both the quality AND the quantity of its warships. On the other hand it could be viewed as simply building up to a size that is commensurate with its economic strength after decades of neglect.
antiterror13
Brigadier
yes 112 UVLS + 24 HQ-10 SAM
Silo is not commonly used for that matter ... Silo is more for land based ICBM
This post assumes "challenge the usn dominance in the pacific" means complete parity at half way point between US and China.
How could a 2028 PLAN compete with USN in the pacific? Don't see that as possible. 2028 PLAN will have something like 4 carriers with 120-135 combat planes to go into pacific. USN will have 11 carriers (if there's a war for the pacific, USN Atlantic fleet will pretty much be diverted to Pacific as well) with 500 or so combat planes.
PLAN will operate perhaps one dozen nuclear attack subs. USN will be operating 50 or so.
PLAN may have 50 more conventional subs, but reaching half way into pacific would require half or more of sub's fuel reserve. And it'd take some 20 days, if snorkeling the whole way. Since that's not survivable, less direct routes with going deeper would be needed - eventually making the whole trip even longer. With no bases nearby, it'd be very hard to sustain such subs half way in the pacific, and their usefulness would be just a fraction of what it is around the first island chain.
PLAN will have something like 80-90 large surface combatants. But a fair part of them will be smaller frigates, and 054A won't be that potent or modern in 2028 (it's a bit behind the curve as it is even today) USN will have similar number of large surface combatants. But they will all be 9000 tons or larger. Burke is more modern and capable than 054A. Yes, there will be maybe a dozen 055 by then, but that's not the overwhelming advantage in the sense USN advantage in carriers and subs is.
056 is pretty small, will be very hard pressed to be useful half way into pacific. LCS, however limited it is in firepower, is larger and made for transoceanic ops.
Most importantly, USN will still have a bunch of bases for force projection. Japan, Guam, Wake, Hawaii. China will have none, except those they manage to capture. Which, since US will have extra planes at those bases and since US will still have 2-3 times larger assault fleet, likely won't happen. At best, first island chain bases might get taken.
Anyway, if one defines challenging USN dominance in the pacific as merely chipping away at their dominance, then PLAN already can prevent much USN ops within the first island chain. And by 2028 that might even expand to PLAN deterring USN from most ops within second island chain.
How could a 2028 PLAN compete with USN in the pacific? Don't see that as possible. 2028 PLAN will have something like 4 carriers with 120-135 combat planes to go into pacific. USN will have 11 carriers (if there's a war for the pacific, USN Atlantic fleet will pretty much be diverted to Pacific as well) with 500 or so combat planes.
PLAN will operate perhaps one dozen nuclear attack subs. USN will be operating 50 or so.
PLAN may have 50 more conventional subs, but reaching half way into pacific would require half or more of sub's fuel reserve. And it'd take some 20 days, if snorkeling the whole way. Since that's not survivable, less direct routes with going deeper would be needed - eventually making the whole trip even longer. With no bases nearby, it'd be very hard to sustain such subs half way in the pacific, and their usefulness would be just a fraction of what it is around the first island chain.
PLAN will have something like 80-90 large surface combatants. But a fair part of them will be smaller frigates, and 054A won't be that potent or modern in 2028 (it's a bit behind the curve as it is even today) USN will have similar number of large surface combatants. But they will all be 9000 tons or larger. Burke is more modern and capable than 054A. Yes, there will be maybe a dozen 055 by then, but that's not the overwhelming advantage in the sense USN advantage in carriers and subs is.
056 is pretty small, will be very hard pressed to be useful half way into pacific. LCS, however limited it is in firepower, is larger and made for transoceanic ops.
Most importantly, USN will still have a bunch of bases for force projection. Japan, Guam, Wake, Hawaii. China will have none, except those they manage to capture. Which, since US will have extra planes at those bases and since US will still have 2-3 times larger assault fleet, likely won't happen. At best, first island chain bases might get taken.
Anyway, if one defines challenging USN dominance in the pacific as merely chipping away at their dominance, then PLAN already can prevent much USN ops within the first island chain. And by 2028 that might even expand to PLAN deterring USN from most ops within second island chain.
I mean, if challenging the USN means fighting under equidistant conditions with a 50/50 chance of winning or losing with the forces each side can bring to bear then obviously that won't be the case for a while.
But as far as being able to project a presence and capability to significantly complicate the USN's peacetime planning and to force the USN to have to at least seriously adjust or limit their operational options to account for the Chinese Naval capability, well yeah I think that would be easily done in ten years.
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