055 DDG Large Destroyer Thread

[Lethe]

Care to share more about this Leader class you speak of? The only credible piece of info I've found online regarding it is a video on youtube. I have doubts as to how quickly they can be delivered as well, given their recent commissioning rates. I don't think the lead ship of the Gorshkov class is even commissioned yet? (some say gorshkov was commissioned last year, but there are differing accounts)

Gorshkov is currently being degaussed and looking

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beneath all those cables.

I wouldn't expect Leader before 2020, but I think it is a mistake to judge future Russian construction and induction rates by the past. Clearly it has taken Russia a long time to recover the necessary industrial base, but much of that is now complete and going forward I think we will see an exponential increase in the rate of ships being inducted.

As for the design of Leader, last I heard they were considering four different proposals, the smallest of which was 9000 tonnes. I wouldn't expect it to be too large for the simple reason that Russia needs to build enough of them to replace all large warships currently in service with the exception of the modernised Kirovs. But on the other hand, that also includes replacing the current Slava-class cruisers. My own speculation is that it will turn out to be between Burke III and Type 055 in size, but surely we will know more in the coming years.

 

[Blitzo]

I see, thanks for the info.

I read on global security that there were considerations for four different destroyer sizes as well, but as of yet the Russians have yet to announce anything, and they're typically more open regarding their development schedules.

As for induction/production rates, numbers can be a little deceiving. They seem to be building multiple Admiral Grigorovich FFGs at once at one shipyard, while the Gorshkov class is a little slower.
Obviously launch rate doesn't necessarily equate to commissioning rate, and commissioning and launch rate for one type of ship at some ship yards won't necessarily translate to an equal rate for other types of ships at other ship yards (many 054As were launched in the intervening years between 052C #2 and 052C #3, for instance).

I suppose we'll know if there is an increase in production rate after it happens. Few people in 2000 probably expected the Chinese shipbuilding industry to be able to annually launch 2 FFGs, 2 DDGs and multiple corvettes within ten years time, so it's definitely not out of the realm of possibility for the Russians to get their game together.

 

[tphuang]

Going by Wikipedia, China has 75% of US Navy personnel numbers, and the latter is hardly a manpower-light force. Indeed, when you exclude those categories in which PLAN currently has minimal presence (carriers, amphibs), it seems likely that PLAN currently has just as much, if not more manpower than USN across the categories that remain. The necessary expansion in personnel numbers would therefore seem to be quite modest and involves more a redistribution of resources away from brown/green-water capabilities to blue water capabilities.

On a different note, I'm not sure it is appropriate to think of 055 as a cruiser. True, it is significantly larger than the existing 052C/D destroyers, but that is the trend everywhere. Going by the 12000 tonne full load figure traditionally cited, it is only marginally larger than the Atago, Sejong the Great, and Burke-III destroyer classes, and smaller than the Zumwalt-class destroyer. Also, it is unlikely to be much larger than the upcoming Russian destroyer, if in fact it is larger at all. At the other end of the scale, 'frigate' classifications are creeping up to 6000+ tonnes, or even 7000+ tonnes in the case of the German F125 and French Horizon classes. Lastly, as a brand new hull I do not expect Type 055 (+055A/etc.) to be a limited production run vessel deserving of a special 'cruiser' moniker. Over time it will almost certainly see production numbers exceeding all 052 subclasses put together. All things considered, it seems to me that 'destroyer' is the more appropriate classification for this vessel.

It's not about the raw numbers. It's about how many specialized and trained crew member you have. In the past, Chinese ships were very simple to operate. In PLAN modernization, the software upgrade of training personnel has been a tougher proposition than just building ships. You don't just take someone from Type 037 or Type 051 and put them on Type 056 or Type 052D and expect them to just know how to use it. It takes a lot of training. Expansion and usage of Type 055 would be even more arduous process.

It doesn't really matter what you call the ship. It's twice as large as Type 052D, which means it requires a lot more training. They built a land based simulation platform. They've only done that for carrier and nuclear submarines before. That shows you how highly PLAN thinks of Type 055 and the complexity of this platform and the amount of training involved.

The most conservative projection I can imagine is that China will have 35 destroyers by 2030. All that is required to achieve this 50% increase in numbers is to follow through on the 052D order of a dozen units, to build a mere dozen 055/As over the next decade, and not to accelerate retirements to vessels less than 25 years old.

so now you have gone from having 40 to 60 Type 055 to 35 destroyers of all types? That's more realistic. As i have said many times, this is not the Indian defense forum and there is really no need to fantasize how many ships PLAN will build. They modernize fast enough where you can just watch and assess. Think carefully about how they will train people to use the ships that they have.

 

[schenkus]

About the "destroyer / cruiser" topic: are there some capabilities a ship needs to deserve the "cruiser" designation or is this just considered to be a question of size ?

I always thought a cruiser ought to have a bigger cruising range than is necessary for a destroyer (ticonderoga ~6000nm @20kts, arleigh burke ~4400nm @20kts).

 

[Lethe]

so now you have gone from having 40 to 60 Type 055 to 35 destroyers of all types? That's more realistic. As i have said many times, this is not the Indian defense forum and there is really no need to fantasize how many ships PLAN will build. They modernize fast enough where you can just watch and assess.

What I originally said was that "48 destroyers / 72 frigates is a good number to aim for 20 years from now". Note that (1) this was not a projection, (2) it referred to a longer timeframe than the 2030 era we are now discussing, and (3) if such a scenario were realised, it would involve only 30 Type 055 (and successor variants/classes) destroyers by 2034/35

As for my previous post, that was a conservative projection, not the most realistic. The usual method for projections is to employ three series, with the middle incorporating what are thought to be the most realistic assumptions. It is likely that PLAN will induct 22-32 destroyers out to 2030, and retire 10-14, for a total fleet in 2030 of between 32 (Series C) and 46 (Series A) destroyers. My mainline (Series B) projection is that China will induct a further 27 destroyers out to 2030 (12x052C/D, 15x055/A) and retire 12 (up to and including 051B and 956A) over the same period to field a total of 39 destroyers in 2030.

I'm not quite sure why you keep bringing up India, but certainly one of the differences between India and China is that the former has failed to adequately prepare for the future by investing in adequate infrastructure. You don't seem to like projections very much, but they are an essential part of the efficient long-term function of the nation. You can't just 'wait and see' how much energy the nation will require in 2030, or how many people the public infrastructure of a given city will need to handle, or what the proportion of elderly to working age citizens will be -- you must project well in advance and prepare accordingly.

 

[Jeff Head]

Going by Wikipedia, China has 75% of US Navy personnel numbers, and the latter is hardly a manpower-light force.

Be very careful in how much stock you put in such Wikipedia figures. Displacement of vessels and their armament are one thing, manpower estimates are entirely another for sources like Wikipedia.

The most conservative projection I can imagine is that China will have 35 destroyers by 2030. All that is required to achieve this 50% increase in numbers is to follow through on the 052D order of a dozen units, to build a mere dozen 055/As over the next decade, and not to accelerate retirements to vessels less than 25 years old.

Right now, the PLAN has the current force of either commissioned, launched, or currently building modern destroyers:

2 Type 052 Luhu
1 x Type 051B Luhai
4 x Sovs Hangzhou
2 x Type 051C Shenyang
2 x Type 052B Guangzhou
6 x Type 052C Luzhou
4 x Type 052D Kunming

That's 21 DDGs right there. I do not think any of them will be retired in the next 10-15 years.

As we speak, the PLAN is planning the following new DDGs in the relative near term:

8 x Type 052D (8 more is very likely)
12 x Type 055 (12 is probable)

Those two number right there will produce a total of 41 DDGs for the PLAN, and they will have those all built, IMHO in the mid 2020s time frame.

I think it is probable that the PLAN will maintain 40-42 DDGs, once they reach that number, for the forseeable future.

 

[Blitzo]

Edit:Nvm read the full post more carefully

 

[janjak desalin]

As i have said many times, this is not the Indian defense forum and there is really no need to fantasize how many ships PLAN will build.

Classic!!!

LOL

 

[Jeff Head]

I put together the following

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:

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​

Quite a few more pics there, and I will be adding more as they come out.

Can't wait to get a 1/350 scale model of this baby!

 

[no_name]

There is a chinese blog post that is tracking the progress of the 055 and also the carrier mock up in Wuhan. He/or she may be a local. There are quite a few pics there in rough chronological order, many we have already seen but maybe some not.

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I hope the author is still updating.

This one is a good pic and I wished there was a larger version. It shows the 055, Liaoning mod and that mysterious mast said to be for 057. The contrast seem to be dialed up, probably to compensate for the relatively low resolution.

This pic is from a while back as the scaffolding on the 055's mast has not yet been removed in the pic.

It feels like they are taking their sweet time, but maybe there is more work to it as they now seem to be also modifying the Liaoning mock up. Won't be surprised if they will actually be testing something between the two mock ups.