055 DDG Large Destroyer Thread

[tphuang]

Consider that there are a dozen destroyers in the production queue at the moment, and only half that number (051Ds and DTs) needing replacement by 2020. And only an additional seven over the next decade (051G1, 051G2, 052s, 956s) to 2030. Going by current production rates, PLAN should have no difficulty increasing destroyer numbers from today's 24 to 30 by 2020 and 40+ by 2030.

Personally I think 48 destroyers / 72 frigates is a good number to aim for 20 years from now. Don't need the huge Burke numbers of USN when you've got capable ocean-going frigates behind them, as opposed to LCS...

Where are you going to find the crew member to operate this many ships? Where are these new mega naval bases that are built to accomodate that many ships?

Aside from that, I was responding to the idea of needing 40 to 60 Type 055s. There is a difference between having that many destroyers and that many Type 055s.

 

[Blitzo]

I think 40+ DDG, 40+ FFG for the 6 destroyer flotillas (so 6-8 DDGs and FFGs per flotilla), is realistic for a post 2030 blue water orbat.

DDGs can include 20 or so 052C/Ds, and 20 or so 055s (likely of different variants), while FFG will naturally include the nearly complete 20+ 054As and a similar number of the next generation frigate.

I see no room for 055 weight ships beyond 20ish units. Even if they start constructing 055s in the next year or two, it'll still take them five or six years to pump out ten, and by then IEPS will be ready for a hypothetical 055A. By the time they finish constructing another ten 055As, it'll be 2030 and PLAN would be looking at development of a new generation of surface combatant anyhow...

 

[longmarch]

I thing 30 year life span for a capital ship is quite normal is it not? The older pla navy ships are not good examples; these new ships are mordern, build to last and have room for upgrde, especially if we are talking about 055.

6 052C + 12 052D, then 055. By the time 055 is done, I'm pretty sure an improved version will be ready for production again.

My point is really about sustained, long term buildup of naval assets, instead of some short term spur. I don't want to pretend that I can forsee 30 years down the line, but I see no reason the current rate would not continue.

is the number really outrages? It's certainly less outrages than the US number. Keep in mind that 20 years later China's economy will be bigger than US one(more accurate number might be 15 but that doesn't make much difference), and its military budget will keep growing and growing. Where are they going to spend that money. think about the aircraft carriars China will have, 6 of them is not hard to immagine.

Sure China doesn't play the role of world police, it's not her doctrine and may never intends so. But when you have so much asset to protect, you have to build your musle, want it or not. it's like a grownup having sex, all natual.

Not really expert here... but for 30 years? Wouldn't alot of the technology be outdated by then? Plus I would imagine, even if there is commissioning of these ships each year for 30 years, China will still not have 60 in numbers because many of the earlier commissioned ships will be retired depending on the ship life and relevance.

 

[Lethe]

Where are you going to find the crew member to operate this many ships? Where are these new mega naval bases that are built to accomodate that many ships?

Aside from that, I was responding to the idea of needing 40 to 60 Type 055s. There is a difference between having that many destroyers and that many Type 055s.

China is still growing is she not? By 2030 China's military budget should be at least 2/3rds of the United States (this is assuming the US continues to spend ~4% GDP on defence vs. 2% for China) and with markedly lower personnel costs also, thereby freeing a larger proportion of funds for procurement. Given the diverse threat environment (i.e. need to balance against not only ~65% of US Navy, but Japan, Russia, India, and sundry other nations as well) it is unlikely PLAN will desire to stop short of parity with the US Navy (but with a different composition) and there is no reason she should not be able to achieve this goal. So regarding crews and bases, the answer is simple ... hire/build them!

If for some strange reason PLAN does not intend to expand greatly going forward, then someone should tell them to stop ordering so many ships! If they use the 052C/Ds currently in the pipeline merely to replace existing vessels 1:1 rather than expand, that will run them all the way up to the 956/Sovs as the oldest destroyers in the fleet, at mere 20yrs old in 2020. They won't need to build any 055s at all.

 

[Blitzo]

Even if the PRC economy is bigger than the US by then, their military goals will be quite different.

Instead of 60 burke displacement ships, it would be wiser to distribute the capability between heavy (12k+ ton), medium (7k+) and lighter weight (4k+) classes.

As formidable as the USN's fleet of burkes are, many of the missions they undertake are overkill for a ship of their calibre (no need to send a ship with aegis and 96 VLS to hunt pirates).

If all goes well, by 2040, the entire PLAN would be modernized. They'll have to start looking to retire the early 052Bs and 052Cs sure, but they can afford to take their time doing it, compared to now.

As for an "ever increasing" defence budget, don't make it sound like they'll ever have more than they can use so they'll be able to splurge on ostentatious numbers of ships.
It's always a fruitless task to try and project 30 years ahead, but I will say that I'd be sorely disappointed and confused if the PLAN decides to embark to build sixty 9,000 ton destroyers for its fleet.

 

[longmarch]

You are even more enthusiastic than i am

i don't really think China would ever need as many ships as US has; just like China would never build that many nuclear warheads.

i think the US military scale is excessive, especially with the existence of NATO. Its military industrial complex needs to be checked. Maybe when its economy is overtaken they'll finally realize that they really don't need that much. I certainly hope they don't use it as an excuse to build more ships.
Oh well.

China is still growing is she not? By 2030 China's military budget should be at least 2/3rds of the United States (this is assuming the US continues to spend ~4% GDP on defence vs. 2% for China) and with markedly lower personnel costs also, thereby freeing a larger proportion of funds for procurement. Given the diverse threat environment (i.e. need to balance against not only ~65% of US Navy, but Japan, Russia, India, and sundry other nations as well) it is unlikely PLAN will desire to stop short of parity with the US Navy (but with a different composition) and there is no reason she should not be able to achieve this goal. So regarding crews and bases, the answer is simple ... hire/build them!

If for some strange reason PLAN does not intend to expand greatly going forward, then someone should tell them to stop building so many ships! If they use the 052C/Ds currently in the pipeline merely to replace existing vessels 1:1 rather than expand, that will run them all the way up to the 956/Sovs as the oldest destroyers in the fleet, at mere 20yrs old in 2020. They won't need to build any 055s at all.

 

[rhino123]

I thing 30 year life span for a capital ship is quite normal is it not? The older pla navy ships are not good examples; these new ships are mordern, build to last and have room for upgrde, especially if we are talking about 055.

6 052C + 12 052D, then 055. By the time 055 is done, I'm pretty sure an improved version will be ready for production again.

My point is really about sustained, long term buildup of naval assets, instead of some short term spur. I don't want to pretend that I can forsee 30 years down the line, but I see no reason the current rate would not continue.

is the number really outrages? It's certainly less outrages than the US number. Keep in mind that 20 years later China's economy will be bigger than US one(more accurate number might be 15 but that doesn't make much difference), and its military budget will keep growing and growing. Where are they going to spend that money. think about the aircraft carriars China will have, 6 of them is not hard to immagine.

Sure China doesn't play the role of world police, it's not her doctrine and may never intends so. But when you have so much asset to protect, you have to build your musle, want it or not. it's like a grownup having sex, all natual.

I think you misunderstand what I mean. I never say anything about the number of ships being too much or what. I am saying... yes, 055 looked like a very modern ship now. but 30 years down the road, will it still be that relevant, do note that China is not the only country that is advancing technologically? i sure hope that China would not stop their R&D effort after they launched the 055.

In the past when US introduced the Burke... it was the most advance ship at that time and carry on till recently, even now. So they could continue to build these ships (with improvement here and there) in mass number and for many decades to come. The 055 although advance, was argumently not the most advance ships around.

My point is the relevancy of 055 in 30 years time might be anyone's guess. who knows, we might just be seeing 6x 055 and production would move on to another class of destroyers or cruisers.

And my reply was to your previous post... I think China will not keep building one class of destroyer or cruiser for 30 years straight. They will start on one, built a couple, then jump on to other classes that are more advance than the one they are building. And from what I see, when 055 started building, new class of cruiser (at this moment, lets call it 055A) will already been advance development.

 

[tphuang]

China is still growing is she not? By 2030 China's military budget should be at least 2/3rds of the United States (this is assuming the US continues to spend ~4% GDP on defence vs. 2% for China) and with markedly lower personnel costs also, thereby freeing a larger proportion of funds for procurement. Given the diverse threat environment (i.e. need to balance against not only ~65% of US Navy, but Japan, Russia, India, and sundry other nations as well) it is unlikely PLAN will desire to stop short of parity with the US Navy (but with a different composition) and there is no reason she should not be able to achieve this goal. So regarding crews and bases, the answer is simple ... hire/build them!

If for some strange reason PLAN does not intend to expand greatly going forward, then someone should tell them to stop ordering so many ships! If they use the 052C/Ds currently in the pipeline merely to replace existing vessels 1:1 rather than expand, that will run them all the way up to the 956/Sovs as the oldest destroyers in the fleet, at mere 20yrs old in 2020. They won't need to build any 055s at all.

Here is my breakdown before we go further on this discussion

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Now, back to the discussion.

We don't know what China's military budget will be by 2030. And we don't know what China's GDP at that time will be. We don't know what the breakdown of military budget will be. Although logic dictates that China will be spending less on its personnel than US right now, one would hope that China spends a lot more on its personnel in 15 years. That way allows you to attract the best people to operate all the shiny new weaponry. China has had a huge building spree up to this point, but that is used mostly to replace old ships and provide blue water capabilities. Based on the size of the current naval bases and # of people operating them, there is a limit to how large each fleet will get. Now, I've talked about an additional blue water fleet established in the future and that would require additional ships and naval bases, but we have yet to see that form at this point. The current naval bases can't support double the number of larger ships and the people required to operate and maintain them.

Which brings us to the next point of crew members and support personnel. It takes years to find the people willing to live the kind of hard life style required of a sailor. Just imagine how hard it is for the family to have the crew member out in the sea for 6 months a year. PLAN will need years to build up a system where it can recruit the right people and retain them for the long haul to have a career in PLAN. From what I can see, it is going in the right direction and spending a lot more on its personnels.

 

[Lethe]

We don't know what China's military budget will be by 2030. And we don't know what China's GDP at that time will be. We don't know what the breakdown of military budget will be.

This is true, but we can make some reasonable projections, and in fact the relevant planning stuff must make these projections. Or else they will find out in 2025 that they have no space/crew for the ship that has just been commissioned!

USN is preparing right now for its SSBN(X) program, even though the first boat isn't due to enter service until 2030. Similarly they are in the midst of drawing up requirements for F/A-XX, which will not enter service until mid-2030s. PLAN should have timescales out for at least the next 5-10-15 years, with appropriate level of detail for each. Indeed, the 5yr plan should involve very little 'planning' at all, and consist mostly of already committed resources.

Although logic dictates that China will be spending less on its personnel than US right now, one would hope that China spends a lot more on its personnel in 15 years. That way allows you to attract the best people to operate all the shiny new weaponry.

I agree that personnel costs will increase significantly going forward and that this should be so, but they will still remain far below western standards for the forseeable future, and this is to China's advantage.

Which brings us to the next point of crew members and support personnel. It takes years to find the people willing to live the kind of hard life style required of a sailor. Just imagine how hard it is for the family to have the crew member out in the sea for 6 months a year. PLAN will need years to build up a system where it can recruit the right people and retain them for the long haul to have a career in PLAN.

Indeed, which is why planning to accommodate and support a significantly larger fleet going forward must begin now.

 

[joshuatree]

Where are you going to find the crew member to operate this many ships? Where are these new mega naval bases that are built to accomodate that many ships?

Continued recruitment and improvement in officer pay? Retirement of older vessels so crews transfer over?

Isn't it a norm to consider 1/3 your fleet at base, 1/3 in the shipyards undergoing maintenance, and 1/3 actively deployed?

Despite not following the US model of world's policeman, I think we will see China deploying her naval assets across the globe to protect her economic interests such as investments and emigrant Chinese population in places like Africa.