I'd love to see the number of 054A/B/C go to 50, but honestly it is unlikely, the cost would be too high, I'd guess the cost of 054A to PLAN, including sub-system and missiles would be around $350M. Export price would be higher, perhaps $400M
There is no reason for them to build that many 054s, although it probably isn't out of question for them to build 16 to 18 054As. I don't think the original order was this large, but the aden missions really showed the need for 054A. Also, the cost of 054A is around $200 million.
And they have no need to replace 053 1 on 1. A lot of Jianghu's roles can easily be replaced by the cutters or the 056 class. And the jiangweis still have plenty of life left.
I am convinced that China will replace frigates on a one-to-one basis, but certainly not all by Type 054A. PLAN currently has 29 JIANGHU class frigates of all versions; if you also count the derived JIANGWEI class, you arrive at a total of 43. The last JIANGWEI II’s were built in 2005 and are not going to be replaced any time soon.
The 29 JIANGHU and the 4 JIANGWEI I will probably only be replaced in total by 2025, and the Chinese are not going to build the 054 design for 20 years. There will reportedly be a Type 054B, but even that will probably only be built until 2020, when an entirely new design should make its appearance. Either this new type or the 054B ought to have much improved ASW capabilites as compared to the 054A, which is principally an AAW unit. Some of the JIANGHU’s will reportedly be replaced by Type 056.
They do have new designs that will be using gas turbine too, but I'm wondering how you arrived at the conclusion that 054B will be built until 2020?
I certainly hope that Western frigates have a more powerful sonar than the 054A or a more capable helicopter than the Z-9.
Well, it's hard to assess the power of the sonar, but the small bow mounted sonar we see on 054A is more than enough for the shallow water that it will operate around within first chain. Although now that it goes further offshore, it probably needs a larger sonar bulb. It also has TAS and is rumoured to be able to launch ASW missiles (I would assume something the size of YJ-83 launched from those YJ-83 launchers if it does exist). And the helicopter situation will not get resolved with a new design. It will be resolved once Z-15 is ready and it will be ready in a few years.
Actually, Z-9C is pretty good for it's size. It can carry a torpedo and also carry a dipping sonar. And considering how much space dipping sonar takes, that's pretty good for something it's size. Sure, it doesn't have as much onboarding processing capability as larger helicopters, but that's why you have datalink and have the ship's combat system figure it out.
Aside from that, what additional sonar are you looking for? I guess having one of those systems that have both a TAS and VDS would be good (can't remember the exact name). Having larger bow mounted sonar would help, but that depends on the purpose of the ship.