Re: DDG 052C Thread
I think what we are seeing is the result of the convergence of several factors, but this does not necessarily indicate a fundamental strategic and policy shift by China.
Up till recently, most of the PLAN was pretty antiquated compared to world standard ships, and the PLAN has been engaged in a period of sprint catch up, with two ship classes only and pretty much compressing decades of naval development and advancement into a decade or two.
With the 054A and 052C, we have seen the first significant fruits of that labour, as for the first time the PLAN has indiginous major surface combatants that are comparable to the mainstay of other leading navies.
That I itself would have been justification enough for a large building up to bring the PLAN's main combat strength up to date.
However, at roughly the same time (and this may very likely not be just coincidence) the seagulls won against the turtles and the PLAN has committed itself to getting carries. Since China is never one to make important decisions like thisfor show, or to commit itself by halves when it has settled on a big decision, in my view, that means the PLAN has committed itself to at least a 3 carrier fleet to allow for one deployable flat top at all times. With the Varyag set to sail this year, it is my firm believe that we will see two new built Chinese carriers before the decade is out unless something pretty drastic happens before then.
The Varyag and the two expected new builds will each need a formidable escort fleet, and that is another reason why we are seeing such a long production run for 054As as well as new build 052Cs.
Almost to re-enforce this new postion, the deployments to Somalia, and then to Libya as underscored the main argument of the seagulls in that you need large, principle surface ships on scene to fly the flag in important international events and also to best safeguard your nationals and interests abroad. Those two missions have earn Beijing a great deal of kudos internationally and domestically, and that would not be allowed to be forgotten or unappreciated by the PLAN seagulls.
The deployments to Africa has also shown the PLAN itself how good the new ships are, and by extension, how unsuited their older ships are to such missions, so would further strengthen their committment to making them the PLAN's mainstay.
However, something to remember is that these are all short to medium term goals and ambitions, and apart from adding 3 carriers, and maybe half a dozen more DDGs as dedicated escorts, there is actually no need to further expand the PLAN fleet, as it is likely that the 3 carriers will just be allocated one each to the existing 3 fleets, and the rest of the CSG can come from existing fleet strengths instead of needing to be new builds.
While it is possible the PLAN may establish a new 'far fleet', maybe homeported in Pakistan to have easier access to the Indian Ocean, I think such a move would likely be far too aggressive for Beijings normal subtle tastes. If China establishes a new fleet and bases all 3 carriers in Pakistan, it will scare the bajesus out of the Indians and may star an arms race and/or push them firmly into America's camp, and I don't think China would want that. Also, such a fleet would seem too much like an 'expedition' fleet for China's liking.
Instead, the carriers would likely to allocated to each fleet, along with some new DDGs, and the fleets would be quietly told to establish an 'expeditionary battlegroup' within the fleet that can be deployed independently on missions at short notice, and which will probably train extensively with the expedition elements of the other fleets so that they could all deploy as a single massive task force effectively if needed.
That is what I see as the PLAN's aims for the next 10-20 years. But that is a long time, so it would make no sense to spam too many ships now, when the carriers they are supposed to escort may not be ready for up to a decade. Naval power talks time to build up, but ships also looses their cutting edge with time, as new technologies and developments make new designs so much better.
I like to call this the Dreadnaught bet, because the more you put into building warships, the stronger your naval might would become aye, but it also increases the costs to you if another 'dreadnaught' breakthrough happens, where something new is so foundamentally superior as to make all existing cutting-edge ships obselete almost overnight, like HMS dreadnaught did when it was launched.
Without a real operational need to have a massive fleet, and with enough ships to meet this current and plausable near future needs, I can easily see the current production bindge slowing back down to the old 2-ship class experimental improvement mode after these current 4 052C+ are finished. They might keep bashing out 054As, but it will be at a slower pace then the breakneck speed they have maintained these last few years.
Remember the PLAN has never had any delutions about challenging or matching the USN overall. Even the USN is probably far too big what what America actually needs. It is a throwback to the Cold War, and it is costing America a freightful amount of treasure to maintain, operate and renew.
Looking at America's national debt, it is not out of the question to imagine the US being called to make some tough decisions about what it actually needs and can afford in the future. If even the US cannot afford its current fleet levels, China would need to be crazy to try to match that.
I can see the PLAN expending fast till they reach a 3 carrier fleet, I would then expect a long period of adjustment and learning by the PLAN, where fleet expensive would stop or slow down dramatically. Then if China's economy keep growing, and if there is still a need, the PLAN may ultimately expend to a 6 carrier fleet. Maybe the next 3 would be nuclear supercarriers. But I honestly cannot see the PLAN expending beyond that size.
If the Americans are smart, they would welcome this and offer the PLAN the joint use of some existing US naval bases in exchance for Beijing taking on an appropriate share of international naval patrolling and policing responsibilities (and costs), so the USN can be scaled back, to maybe a 8-9 ship fleet. Still more powerful than the PLAN by a fair margin, but much more affordable.
Allowing the PLAN to jointly us current US naval bases would build goodwill, and also remove any excuse for the PLAN to develop their own chain of foreign bases, so the USN can just kick the Chinese out and greatly limit their long-range deployment and combat capabilities if relations really go south without having to fire a shot.
But I fear that would require the USN to give up too much of the superiority it sees as its god given right, and more critically, would require the US to see China as a peer instead of an inferior, which will likely be too much for the lot on Washington, who sees America as without peer.
