Makes no sense for China to acquire CVN in the next ten years since the main theatre for PLAN is the West Pac. Conventional carriers have much higher readiness rate and can be deployed in a short period when in maintenance.
I'd say 5 years rather than 10 years.
If you look at current rates of Chinese military procurement, in 5 years, the First Island Chain and Guan should be secured (as in China can impose an indefinite air/sea blockade), no matter what the US does.
At that point, it makes sense to focus on building a fully blue-water Navy for operations in the deep Pacific Ocean. I wouldn't be surprised to see 4 nuclear carriers being built in the 2030-2035 timeframe.
I've said for years that it would be a strategic mistake for the US to ditch engagement, as it will just push China even harder to break through any economic, technological or military containment.