Why should Biden even offer a reunification of Taiwan with China? Taiwan is the absolute perfect best trump card that the US could ever have in order to stun China's growth. Washington DC just need a to make a phone call to Taipei and instructs English Vegetable (or her more extremist successor) to officially declare the independence of Taiwan from China for that to happen.
Blinken to test limits of China’s diplomatic engagement on Feb. 5-6 Beijing trip
Liu He meeting Yellen today, Blinken meeting Qin Gang on Feb 5, it seems like a leadup for a China visit for Biden later this year.
My prediction is Biden will try to offer some ultimatum to China about bailing out the US and letting Taiwan reunite deal, something which isn't to be expected to be covered by Blinken's upcoming trip. Assuming Xi doesn't take the deal, we could be looking at a very explosive 2024.
The US could then lead the West in providing moral support for Taiwan (and slamming sanctions on China), while having buckets of popcorn ready to watch the show goes down from the side.
Throwing away that trump card would also mean:
1. Permanently opening the floodgate on the First Island Chain that is stopping PLAN from roaming the Pacific freely;
2. Effectively weakening the US position in the Westpac, essentially throwing away the Westpac to China and Russia; and
3. Political suicide for Biden and the Democrat Party.
So, no - Until PLAN CSGs are sailing outside of New York City, nobody in the US would ever consider giving up Taiwan to China for free.
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