The War in the Ukraine

[tankphobia]

How many power plants and fuel depots are remaining undamaged in Ukraine? I think further attacks against their energy infrastructure would be devastating.

First snow is coming.

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With darkness and cold descending, this winter could lead to unimaginable humanitarian catastrophe.

Those temperatures are fairly mild, I doubt it'll be anything more than an inconvenience until we reach -10C or so.

Because Russia wants to stop the war it doesn't mean that Ukraine has to follow its enemy's wishes. This is something that people don't understand about war. You can start a war by yourself, but if you want to stop the war, you need the other party's consent.

And btw, I wouldn't be sure that NATO would stop its aid. Its not like they send NATO manpower to die in the war, the US can simply print some money, left-pocket/right-pocket give it to the MIC and then produce weapons and ammunition until the end of time.

What I am saying is that, If I was the US, I would continue arming Ukraine while also expanding my weapons/ammo production lines.

I mean why would they? They don't want Ukrainian refugees to flood their country during a recession and the best way to achieve that is to help the Ukrainians re-capture their country. This constant message that that Russia will just declare operation over and China will suddenly flood Russia with military aid is not based on any sort of evidence or reality, more what forum members hope would happen. Russia began this war to gain more agency in its own diplomacy and international standing, they would not want to lose a war then grovel for help from China.

 

[tabu]

F15s, F16s, Typhoons and Rafales are basically what the VKS spent the lion share of its funds to counter. Even if the VKS is a paper tiger, Russia still has its formidable b based AD networks. If soviet era AD can keep the modern VKS at bay, modern Russian AD will have little trouble keeping legacy western fighters at bay.

Of course, colourful nonsense, in Syria we all saw the squalid reality of the Russian air defence system.

 

[Sinnavuuty]

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The recommendation from RUSI reopens debate around Western fighter jets being sent to Ukraine, with the Swedish aircraft being tipped to provide exceptional operation value, especially against Russian long-range missile strikes.​

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Russia’s MiG-31 Foxhounds Proving To Be A Threat To Ukrainian Aircraft​

The unique MiG-31BM with its very long-range air-to-air missiles is a serious menace to Ukrainian aircraft.

 

[abc123]

Ukraine actually had high HDI, just low GDP per capita. That was, of course, thanks to Soviet era advances and policies like universal education, electric/heating cogeneration plants, the electric grid, etc. that they did not pay for

So, there were no taxes in Ukraine during the USSR time? Taxes in Belarus, Kazahstan, Russia, everywhere but Ukraine?

 

[Lethe]

I think Putin’s plans and aims are more longer term [....]

The level of national humiliation Russia will feel at having to stop short will hopefully give them the drive to do a proper military modernisation [....]

Once Russian military modernisation has borne sufficient fruit, Putin could take up any one of the undoubtedly countless opportunities and pretexts Zelensky will shower Russia with for years to come with continued shelling of civilians and terrorist bombings against Russian targets to start part 3 of the War.

I have replied to this post here as I do not wish it to be deleted as off-topic.

 

[sheogorath]

I don't see people disparaging the use of the same level of criminals on the Russian side

Don't know, that depends on how you feel about Zelensky releasing child rapists to form a military unit. Also, are you really trying to equate an SS unit with proven crimes to a current one because it uses convicts?

i.e Wagner recruiting lifers in their units... FFS Wagner was literally founded by neonazis.

The Wagner guy who was claimed to be a nazi hasn't been seen since 2016 while Prigozhin is just a run-off-the-mill oligarch and at least nazi glorification at least is illegal in Russia.

Ukraine on the other hand has made an entire national identity out of their holocaust collaborators, SS units and having multiple openly neo-nazi military units and government officials

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a good reminder of how big was the problem already in 2018, before a lot of people started to pretend there aren't any nazis in Ukraine's armed forces.

Most Ukrainians refugees are women and children while most people who left Russia to escape mobilization are men.

Currently in Spain for work, can call bs on that at least where I am in. Plenty of young Ukrainian men around.

 

[Sheleah]

Analysis of the seizures and liberations of Ukrainian territories:

At the time of the greatest Russian expansion in March, Russia took 130,000 km2 in addition to the 43,000 km2 of Crimea occupied in 2014.

Since then and with the counteroffensive on August 29, Ukraine liberated 67,000 km2 , that is, it recovered more than half of what was lost since February

Russia lost in Kherson the largest city and the only provincial capital it occupied. Since the end of August, Russia has taken 16km2 in Pisky and southern Bahkmut. Ukraine, 8,700 km2 in Kharkov, 2,800 km2 in Luhansk and Donetsk, and another 5,000 km2 in Kherson. 16,500 km2 in two months.

Evidently since the end of March, Russia has only regressed, militarily it has not stopped the Ukrainian advances, and its advances have been very poor...

 

[abc123]

Analysis of the seizures and liberations of Ukrainian territories:

At the time of the greatest Russian expansion in March, Russia took 130,000 km2 in addition to the 43,000 km2 of Crimea occupied in 2014.

Since then and with the counteroffensive on August 29, Ukraine liberated 67,000 km2 , that is, it recovered more than half of what was lost since February

Russia lost in Kherson the largest city and the only provincial capital it occupied. Since the end of August, Russia has taken 16km2 in Pisky and southern Bahkmut. Ukraine, 8,700 km2 in Kharkov, 2,800 km2 in Luhansk and Donetsk, and another 5,000 km2 in Kherson. 16,500 km2 in two months.

Evidently since the end of March, Russia has only regressed, militarily it has not stopped the Ukrainian advances, and its advances have been very poor...

Everyone who can read a map can clearly see that the next big push of this was, whether by Ukraineans or Russians will be in Zaporozhie-Melitopol-Mariupol area.

 

[Sinnavuuty]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1591457819110551556

Russians are building defensive lines in Crimea, they expect a major Ukrainian offensive that will cut through the Zaporizhzhia corridor.
I saw that one of the places where these defensive lines are being built is south of Henichesk, in Arabat Spit.

I would also expect some fortification on the defensive line of the Isthmus of Perekop.

Here:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1590405132092866560

 

[Broccoli]

Ukrainian HIMARS units have begun striking Russia bases and depots in areas what they couldn't previously reach but now can because Russians were forced to abandon Kherson.