The War in the Ukraine

FriedButter

Brigadier
Registered Member
Adding to this i just saw that Russian fertilisers are getting the go sign to be moved from Dutch harbours to be shipped to African nations. That looks like one more sign of some sort of back room agreement. Or it's just coincidental that it happened.

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I think that’s related to the grain deal. In the original deal, both Russia and Ukraine were allowed to sell their agricultural products but the West decided to block Russian products despite the deal. Then the Russians left and the West flipped out because they didn’t think the Russians would. All of a sudden the Russians came back.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
New blog post from @milchronocle. T90M used along with LPR-3 drones

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The death of Lviv paratroopers near Svatov: details

On November 11, units of the 92nd Motorized Brigade and the 80th separate air assault brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine tried to attack the positions of the Russian Armed Forces in the Kuzemovka area (25 km north-west of Svatov). According to the Military Chronicle, for the breakthrough, the units used a reinforced armored group: three infantry fighting vehicles and three Sisu Pasi XA-180 armored personnel carriers, which were covered by T-64BV tanks and artillery of the 40th brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

After the detection of the Ukrainian armored group by the Orlan-10 drone between Berestov and Novoselovsky (5 km from Kuzemovka), the RF Armed Forces attacked the enemy with the help of the Akatsiya self-propelled guns of 152 mm caliber.

Having lost one tank and one armored personnel carrier Sisu Pasi, the Armed Forces of Ukraine retreated, but soon launched a new attack in the Vladimirovka area (30 km north of Svatov), where they were discovered by the special forces of the Russian Airborne Forces.

Using LPR-3 reconnaissance devices, the paratroopers aimed 300 mm Smerch missile systems at the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. After the MLRS strike, the T-90M Proryv-3 tanks advanced to the line of clashes, destroying the T-64BV tank and the YPR-765 armored personnel carrier of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The most serious losses during the sortie to the positions of the RF Armed Forces were suffered by the 80th brigade of the Airborne Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Lviv - an attempt to attack Kuzemovka cost this formation 15 people killed and about a dozen wounded.

A unit of the 92nd Motorized Brigade lost at least five people killed and about ten wounded and retreated to their original positions, leaving the Lviv paratroopers under the fire of rocket artillery of the RF Armed Forces.

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baykalov

Senior Member
Registered Member
I think that’s related to the grain deal. In the original deal, both Russia and Ukraine were allowed to sell their agricultural products but the West decided to block Russian products despite the deal. Then the Russians left and the West flipped out because they didn’t think the Russians would. All of a sudden the Russians came back.

The grain deal expires on November 19. After returning to the grain deal, the Kremlin said that Russia was still undecided about whether to extend it beyond the November 19 deadline. Moscow has repeatedly said the agreement was not effective in bringing grain and fertilizer to developing countries, while sanctions continue to hinder Russia's food exports, even though the deal was supposed to guarantee their free flow to global markets.
 

BoraTas

Major
Registered Member
Explosions of hand grenades don't appear very large on thermal, but they fling lethal shrapanel much further than you expect.
Likely a 30 mm VOG-17 grenade. Its explosive charge weighs 36 grams. The PLA specifically rejected the Russian 30 mm standard because of its low explosive power.
 

Phead128

Major
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
I think Putin’s plans and aims are more longer term.

At this point is abundantly clear that fundamental deficiencies in the Russian military means they cannot wage and win a low cost (manpower and equipment) war against Ukraine while it enjoys full NATO support. And WWII like victories bought with rivers of Russian blood would be politically untenable.

This is why the mobilisation isn’t really going to fundamentally change things on the battlefield as far as I can see. It will help to check the Ukrainian advances, but Russia will continue to suffer unacceptable levels of casualties going on the offensive, which is a price they are not willing or able to pay, and hence they are not going to be able to make major breakthroughs and advances even after all the mobilised are fully trained, equipped and deployed.

Hell, even from a purely defensive POV, it doesn’t look great for Russia, as Zelensky will happily march millions of Ukrainians to their deaths to Russian guns, but even with a 10-1 exchange rate, that’s a level of loss the Russian military and society cannot withstand.

The real root solutions to Russia’s problems are not available in the short term, and not while it is engaged in active combat in Ukraine.

But, should Russia unilaterally end its SMO and declare victory, that would fundamentally change two critical factors to Russia’s advantage.

Firstly, it would be impossible for NATO to continue even A fraction of the current level of support to Ukraine in their current economic states. Without that level of support, Ukraine fundamentally lacks the means to continue to make meaningful gains against Russia or inflect unacceptable casualties on the Russians, especially once the Russians start to get the mobilised deployed on the frontlines. Without NATO support, even a million man march against the Russians is just one giant Turkey shoot for the Russians.

Secondly, ending the SMO would give China enough of a fig-leaf to allow large scale military sales to Russia to plug all gaping holes in their current force structure. Although even that will probably be very covert with a lot of ‘joint ventures’ where Chinese systems are repackaged in Russian shells for political expediency for both sides.

The key thing to remember is that ending the SMO now would not be a true end to the conflict, merely a pause, much like 2014 was.

The west and Zelensky will never allow a real peace to happen with Russia still in control of so much Ukrainian territory and especially without a regime change in Moscow.

The level of national humiliation Russia will feel at having to stop short will hopefully give them the drive to do a proper military modernisation.

The west will continue to keep all the sanctions and state-approved discrimination against Russia and ordinary Russians, which should serve as a much needed wake up call to Russia society to the reality that they will never be tolerated so long as they remain a free and sovereign state instead of being reduced to America puppets and vassals as the EU had been.

Once Russian military modernisation has borne sufficient fruit, Putin could take up any one of the undoubtedly countless opportunities and pretexts Zelensky will shower Russia with for years to come with continued shelling of civilians and terrorist bombings against Russian targets to start part 3 of the War.
Excellent analysis as always.

I predict this will happen too. The closest analogy is Sino-Vietnamese War, which had a major combat operation ("high intensity phase") and a very long decades border skirmishes ("low intensity phase"). During the border skirmishes, DXP initiated PLA military reform and modernization while engaged in low-intensity combat with Vietnam...Russia can do the same thing as you alluded to. Of course, as @ZeEa5KPul alluded to, Ukraine can also militarily reform and modernize as well with NATO support. Ideally, Russia ends Ukraine regime completely, so that Putin's successor does not need to deal with a resurgent Israel 2.0 a decade later. But to your point, perhaps Russia military modernization with Chinese assistance will tip the scales in the future conflicts. The Kherson withdrawal suggests there is no interest in territories West of Dnieper river, or even Kiev regime change, so mobilization is more of stabilizing the front or checking Ukrainian advances than territorial expansion, towards the Western Ukraine atleast. If Donestk/Zapo is obliterated, Putin could unilaterally declare victory, or go for Kharkiv...but given the experience in Marioupol, it won't be very easy, and Kharkiv is 3X larger.
 
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BlackWindMnt

Major
Registered Member
Excellent analysis as always.

I predict this will happen too. The closest analogy is Sino-Vietnamese War, which had a major combat operation ("high intensity phase") and a very long decades border skirmishes ("low intensity phase"). During the border skirmishes, DXP initiated PLA military reform and modernization while engaged in low-intensity combat with Vietnam...Russia can do the same thing as you alluded to. Of course, as @ZeEa5KPul alluded to, Ukraine can also militarily reform and modernize as well with NATO support. Ideally, Russia ends Ukraine regime completely, so that Putin's successor does not need to deal with a resurgent Israel 2.0 a decade later. But to your point, perhaps Russia military modernization with Chinese assistance will tip the scales in the future conflicts. The Kherson withdrawal suggests there is no interest in territories West of Dnieper river, or even Kiev regime change, so mobilization is more of stabilizing the front or checking Ukrainian advances than territorial expansion, towards the Western Ukraine atleast. If Donestk/Zapo is obliterated, Putin could unilaterally declare victory, or go for Kharkiv...but given the experience in Marioupol, it won't be very easy, and Kharkiv is 3X larger.
Can't they just choke out or starve Kharkiv, encircle the city instead of go into the city and needing to clean up the Ukrainian forces.
Just starve and choke the Ukrainian soldiers to a certain point then offer a humanitarian corridor out of the city like they did multiple times in Syria.

I think that’s related to the grain deal. In the original deal, both Russia and Ukraine were allowed to sell their agricultural products but the West decided to block Russian products despite the deal. Then the Russians left and the West flipped out because they didn’t think the Russians would. All of a sudden the Russians came back.
That also might be it, like i said the timing seems really coincidental then after nato flipped Kherson the go ahead was given on the Russian fertiliser for global south countries..
 

SolarWarden

Junior Member
Registered Member
You avoided the other points about the logistical operations. Aircraft are maintenance heavy and require specialized equipment, well trained specialists, and maintenance/repair centers. Unless NATO has been covertly establishing such stations, provided such equipment, and trained a lot of personal to perform repairs and maintenance for the past few months at minimum, those hypothetical F-16's are useless. You have to remember that pilots are only part of the kill chain, which is extremely long. As for the pilots themselves, according to the Romanians, it is difficult and time consuming for them to learn how to operate F-16's and incorporate them into the air force. All of that is happening during peacetime. Ukrainian pilots are most likely on the alert for any requests for sorties, interceptions, and etc. They may not be flying a lot. However, they are still on high alert. So many of them definitely can't train.
"Unless NATO has been covertly establishing such stations, provided such equipment, and trained a lot of personal to perform repairs and maintenance for the past few months at minimum, those hypothetical F-16's are useless."



US personnel more than likely will be in Ukraine just like they are right now "keeping track" of US gear. Not to mention the American "volunteers" that are there to maintain that equipment. American and Brits are inside Ukraine there's no denying that and it wouldn't be too difficult to put on a Ukr patch on uniform. I actually believe when Ukraine goes on a mission strike with HiMARS they have an American "minder" with them. US has personnel in Pakistan keeping an eye on the F-16's when it comes to certain maintenance that Pakistan needs when it comes to the more sensitive tech.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
Can't they just choke out or starve Kharkiv, encircle the city instead of go into the city and needing to clean up the Ukrainian forces.
Just starve and choke the Ukrainian soldiers to a certain point then offer a humanitarian corridor out of the city like they did multiple times in Syria.


That also might be it, like i said the timing seems really coincidental then after nato flipped Kherson the go ahead was given on the Russian fertiliser for global south countries..
Won't work anywhere in eastern Ukraine. That exact strategy was tried in Mariupol but Azov started massacring civilians which forced a Russian assault.
Likely a 30 mm VOG-17 grenade. Its explosive charge weighs 36 grams. The PLA specifically rejected the Russian 30 mm standard because of its low explosive power.
VOG-17 is a tube launched grenade, so unlikely. More likely to be an RKG-3 or derivative. Anyone within 10 metres is going to be caught up in the high explosive shockwave and will have a traumatic brain injury, whether or not they get peppered with fragmentation.
 

Sinnavuuty

Captain
Registered Member
Noteworthy mention is the speed that they withdraw at. It took them around 3 days to move 20,000-30,000 troops and 3,000-5,000 pieces of equipment (depending on source) across the river. Reuters reported that it was estimated to take at least a week or more for the Russians to fully leave.



This should highlight that Russian logistics isn’t as degraded and poor as some users here keep insisting upon.
Unless Russia employed dozens of cargo transport helicopters and dozens of ferries, I highly doubt they would be able to cross 3,500 pieces of equipment and 20,000 troops in 3 days, this is logistically impossible for Russia's right bank, as I said, the withdrawal began well before any public disclosure.
 

tankphobia

Senior Member
Registered Member
Ukranian soldier in Kherson spotted with the emblem of the Dirlewanger Brigade on his helmet. The Brigade was one the most infamous SS units even among the SS officers themselves and partly responsible for the mass murder of 100.000 poles in 1944.

On a counterpoint, I don't see people disparaging the use of the same level of criminals on the Russian side, i.e Wagner recruiting lifers in their units... FFS Wagner was literally founded by neonazis.
 
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