The War in the Ukraine

tabu

Junior Member
Registered Member
I think Putin’s plans and aims are more longer term.

At this point is abundantly clear that fundamental deficiencies in the Russian military means they cannot wage and win a low cost (manpower and equipment) war against Ukraine while it enjoys full NATO support. And WWII like victories bought with rivers of Russian blood would be politically untenable.

This is why the mobilisation isn’t really going to fundamentally change things on the battlefield as far as I can see. It will help to check the Ukrainian advances, but Russia will continue to suffer unacceptable levels of casualties going on the offensive, which is a price they are not willing or able to pay, and hence they are not going to be able to make major breakthroughs and advances even after all the mobilised are fully trained, equipped and deployed.

Hell, even from a purely defensive POV, it doesn’t look great for Russia, as Zelensky will happily march millions of Ukrainians to their deaths to Russian guns, but even with a 10-1 exchange rate, that’s a level of loss the Russian military and society cannot withstand.

The real root solutions to Russia’s problems are not available in the short term, and not while it is engaged in active combat in Ukraine.

But, should Russia unilaterally end its SMO and declare victory, that would fundamentally change two critical factors to Russia’s advantage.

Firstly, it would be impossible for NATO to continue even A fraction of the current level of support to Ukraine in their current economic states. Without that level of support, Ukraine fundamentally lacks the means to continue to make meaningful gains against Russia or inflect unacceptable casualties on the Russians, especially once the Russians start to get the mobilised deployed on the frontlines. Without NATO support, even a million man march against the Russians is just one giant Turkey shoot for the Russians.

Secondly, ending the SMO would give China enough of a fig-leaf to allow large scale military sales to Russia to plug all gaping holes in their current force structure. Although even that will probably be very covert with a lot of ‘joint ventures’ where Chinese systems are repackaged in Russian shells for political expediency for both sides.

The key thing to remember is that ending the SMO now would not be a true end to the conflict, merely a pause, much like 2014 was.

The west and Zelensky will never allow a real peace to happen with Russia still in control of so much Ukrainian territory and especially without a regime change in Moscow.

The level of national humiliation Russia will feel at having to stop short will hopefully give them the drive to do a proper military modernisation.

The west will continue to keep all the sanctions and state-approved discrimination against Russia and ordinary Russians, which should serve as a much needed wake up call to Russia society to the reality that they will never be tolerated so long as they remain a free and sovereign state instead of being reduced to America puppets and vassals as the EU had been.

Once Russian military modernisation has borne sufficient fruit, Putin could take up any one of the undoubtedly countless opportunities and pretexts Zelensky will shower Russia with for years to come with continued shelling of civilians and terrorist bombings against Russian targets to start part 3 of the War.
Well, technically, how will it happen?
Is Putin going to say - "the Ukranians, don't you dare shoot at us and attack us, because we have won and stopped the CMO"?!!
 

Sinnavuuty

Captain
Registered Member
Well, technically, how will it happen?
Is Putin going to say - "the Ukranians, don't you dare shoot at us and attack us, because we have won and stopped the CMO"?!!
I also wanted to know. I doubt the Ukrainians will stop the offensive now and it would be unwise to think that western aid will stall because the Russians have raised the white flag of peace, this could be a huge mistake, with each new victory Zelensky propaganda on top of it to get more support and with successive Russian defeats the chance of this ending unilaterally by the Russians is impossible, the Russians as they are do not have enough power to end the conflict and I even think Putin is foolish enough to sit at the table thinking he will reach a common agreement with Ukraine when it is losing.
 

Broccoli

Senior Member
There are currently 8 million Ukrainian refugees in Europe, of which nearly 3 million are in Russia. The population of Ukraine is now perhaps 29 million. From this figure, we must subtract the population in the regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhya, which are under Russian control.

Most Ukrainians refugees are women and children while most people who left Russia to escape mobilization are men.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
Well, technically, how will it happen?
Is Putin going to say - "the Ukranians, don't you dare shoot at us and attack us, because we have won and stopped the CMO"?!!
Up to this point there was no fight between the NATO trained and equiped units units and the Russian ones, where the NATO win.

Every area , that was vacated by the Russians been done by simply withdrawing the units from there, not by defeating them.
Usually the Western military units had magnitude higher losses thant the Russians.


So, up to this point we still waiting to see the direct confontration between the NATO and Russia.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
I think Putin’s plans and aims are more longer term.

At this point is abundantly clear that fundamental deficiencies in the Russian military means they cannot wage and win a low cost (manpower and equipment) war against Ukraine while it enjoys full NATO support. And WWII like victories bought with rivers of Russian blood would be politically untenable.

This is why the mobilisation isn’t really going to fundamentally change things on the battlefield as far as I can see. It will help to check the Ukrainian advances, but Russia will continue to suffer unacceptable levels of casualties going on the offensive, which is a price they are not willing or able to pay, and hence they are not going to be able to make major breakthroughs and advances even after all the mobilised are fully trained, equipped and deployed.

Hell, even from a purely defensive POV, it doesn’t look great for Russia, as Zelensky will happily march millions of Ukrainians to their deaths to Russian guns, but even with a 10-1 exchange rate, that’s a level of loss the Russian military and society cannot withstand.

The real root solutions to Russia’s problems are not available in the short term, and not while it is engaged in active combat in Ukraine.

But, should Russia unilaterally end its SMO and declare victory, that would fundamentally change two critical factors to Russia’s advantage.

Firstly, it would be impossible for NATO to continue even A fraction of the current level of support to Ukraine in their current economic states. Without that level of support, Ukraine fundamentally lacks the means to continue to make meaningful gains against Russia or inflect unacceptable casualties on the Russians, especially once the Russians start to get the mobilised deployed on the frontlines. Without NATO support, even a million man march against the Russians is just one giant Turkey shoot for the Russians.

Secondly, ending the SMO would give China enough of a fig-leaf to allow large scale military sales to Russia to plug all gaping holes in their current force structure. Although even that will probably be very covert with a lot of ‘joint ventures’ where Chinese systems are repackaged in Russian shells for political expediency for both sides.

The key thing to remember is that ending the SMO now would not be a true end to the conflict, merely a pause, much like 2014 was.

The west and Zelensky will never allow a real peace to happen with Russia still in control of so much Ukrainian territory and especially without a regime change in Moscow.

The level of national humiliation Russia will feel at having to stop short will hopefully give them the drive to do a proper military modernisation.

The west will continue to keep all the sanctions and state-approved discrimination against Russia and ordinary Russians, which should serve as a much needed wake up call to Russia society to the reality that they will never be tolerated so long as they remain a free and sovereign state instead of being reduced to America puppets and vassals as the EU had been.

Once Russian military modernisation has borne sufficient fruit, Putin could take up any one of the undoubtedly countless opportunities and pretexts Zelensky will shower Russia with for years to come with continued shelling of civilians and terrorist bombings against Russian targets to start part 3 of the War.
Because Russia wants to stop the war it doesn't mean that Ukraine has to follow its enemy's wishes. This is something that people don't understand about war. You can start a war by yourself, but if you want to stop the war, you need the other party's consent.

And btw, I wouldn't be sure that NATO would stop its aid. Its not like they send NATO manpower to die in the war, the US can simply print some money, left-pocket/right-pocket give it to the MIC and then produce weapons and ammunition until the end of time.

What I am saying is that, If I was the US, I would continue arming Ukraine while also expanding my weapons/ammo production lines.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
And btw, I wouldn't be sure that NATO would stop its aid. Its not like they send NATO manpower to die in the war, the US can simply print some money, left-pocket/right-pocket give it to the MIC and then produce weapons and ammunition until the end of time.

What I am saying is that, If I was the US, I would continue arming Ukraine while also expanding my weapons/ammo production lines.
Well, it presume that China willing to finance forward the USA military activity.

I mean, the pre-requisite of the above activity is China willingness to increase the export to the USA, and let the Captiol to realocate the resources from civilian work to military without impact on the level of living in the USA.


Judged by the lack of demand for the USA treasury it is not like this anymore.
 
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