The War in the Ukraine

MLRS coverage of Ukraine in view of newly conquered settlements

This is interesting. This demonstrates a certain permissive environment for SOF units from Ukraine to carry out amphibious diversionary attacks on the coast of the left bank of the Dnieper to keep Russian troops engaged while carrying out the new offensive through Zaporizhzhia to free Kherson, this is not very difficult to do considering the assets ISR that NATO provides considering another factor which is Russian weakness in the same surveillance and reconnaissance assets

Also, the AFU is attacking the coast of Nova Kakhovka

Russians are building defensive lines in Crimea, they expect a major Ukrainian offensive that will cut through the Zaporizhzhia corridor.
I saw that one of the places where these defensive lines are being built is south of Henichesk, in Arabat Spit.

I would also expect some fortification on the defensive line of the Isthmus of Perekop.

ZeEa5KPul said:

A ceasefire like you describe would be useful for Russia but it would be useful for Ukraine as well, perhaps even more useful. It would allow NATO to arm Ukraine to a much higher degree and transition Ukraine's air force to Western jets. It wouldn't be escalatory then since "the war is over." The West (at least the elite) is willing to pour endless sums of money into Ukraine, especially since it's seen as successfully stopping Russia.

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A ceasefire doesn't mean the war is over and even if they agreed it wouldn't last past a month and why would Ukraine agree with a ceasefire when they are 3 for 3 in major battles? Battle of Kyiv, Kharkov and now Kherson.

It would take a year to get Ukraine pilots to be as good as NATO pilots if they transitioned to F-16's.

ZeEa5KPul said:

Russia's going to have to find a way to do the military reform and modernization you describe while engaged in combat in Ukraine. The way to do this is to completely destroy the Ukrainian state's ability to function by attacking not just electricity and water, but food storage and distribution as well.

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If they could do it they would do it. Pro Russians need to wake up and smell the coffee and realize that Russia might not have the ability to do what pro Russian folks want them to do. When a supposed military superpower needs to buy Iranian and North Korean arms it says a lot about that nations capability or lack of.

Btw all that you proposed could easily be done if Russia had air superiority the fact they can't do this against a neighboring country with little to no air force and soviet era IADS should be the obvious reason why Russian forces are in the predicament they are in.

ZeEa5KPul said:

It won't matter how many millions of Ukrainians Zelensky is willing to march to their deaths if they're too hungry to march.

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How do you corelate Russia invading a country and the invaded country defending itself to marching the invaded countries men to their death? I guess any nation that defended themselves from Nazis during WW2 were marching their men to their deaths including the Soviets? I guess the US can be accused of marching Chinese men to their deaths by giving China weapons during WW2 to defend themselves from Imperial Japan?

Either Ukraine fights or it ceases to exist there is no such thing as marching Ukrainian men to their deaths to defend their nation from invasion.

SolarWarden said:

It would take a year to get Ukraine pilots to be as good as NATO pilots if they transitioned to F-16's.

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Said no one ever who has a clue in these matters. This is what happens when you think warfare is like a Call of Duty game.

A ceasefire doesn't mean the war is over and even if they agreed it wouldn't last past a month and why would Ukraine agree with a ceasefire when they are 3 for 3 in major battles? Battle of Kyiv, Kharkov and now Kherson.

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Because they are increasingly a non-viable country and the EU won't be sending them any money once the war is over and people wont be coming back to the european equivalent of war torn Congo.

Which will only get worse because now you have a bunch of oligarch with private armies and NATO weapons.

This is the part a lot of you NATO types miss about this conflict.

SolarWarden said:

When a supposed military superpower needs to buy Iranian and North Korean arms it says a lot about that nations capability or lack of.

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Everybody knows the Russians have always been lacking on the drone deparment so its not shocking they eventually decided to source them from somebody else with more experience and industrial capacity for drones for the time being.

Now the North Korea thing, there hasn't been any proof of North Korean anything being in Russian hands, so you might as well try to cut the bullshit until there is proof, mate.

Also, last time I checked, the US sources plenty of things from other countries. The M777 isn't american, is a british design, and the brits.

SolarWarden said:

Either Ukraine fights or it ceases to exist there is no such thing as marching Ukrainian men to their deaths to defend their nation from invasion.

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There is, if it is a war you had multiple oportunities of avoiding since 2014.

Sinnavuuty said:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1591236223770963968

MLRS coverage of Ukraine in view of newly conquered settlements

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It is acutally showing quite well that the Kherson area practically useless for the NATO, it is not possible to reach the eastern fronts from that area anyway, only "who care" areas.

At the same time the Russians can increase the density of military units on the leftover frontlines by 33%- and for the Ukrainans to move the units to the other side of Dniieper will be difficult ,considering the strikes on railway, and the simple fact they need to travel 150 km north to reach the closest bridge.

So it will takes same time . Or lot of time, depends if the Russians want to use cheap Iranian ballistic missiles on the Dnieper bridges.

SolarWarden said:

A ceasefire doesn't mean the war is over and even if they agreed it wouldn't last past a month and why would Ukraine agree with a ceasefire when they are 3 for 3 in major battles? Battle of Kyiv, Kharkov and now Kherson.

It would take a year to get Ukraine pilots to be as good as NATO pilots if they transitioned to F-16's.

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Romania's transition from Mig's to F-16's can give us glimpse of how Ukraine may fare in this theoretical transition:

Here is the key part:
Romanian Air Force pilot Capt. Alexandru Beraczko, 28, is one of two Romanians now in basic combat flight training in Arizona. He previously participated in U.S. Air Force programs at Lackland and Randolph Air Force Bases, Texas, Columbus Air Force Base, Miss., and Vance Air Force Base, Okla.

“I’ve been trained in the mindset to fly the MiG-21 before,” said Beraczko of his Romanian Alpha Jet training, which has the same avionics as the MiG-21. He’s also familiar with the MiG-29 flown by Ukraine.

“Getting [to] the F-16 from the MiG-29—it’s a way different airframe,” Beraczko told Air Force Magazine by phone from Tucson. “The heads-up display, even the missiles they are running, they have different cool times, different intelligence. Bear in mind they need to apply different tactics. Air tactics are different.”

Romania joined the NATO Partnership for Peace in 1994 shortly after independence and became a full NATO member 10 years later. Each step was a shift to the Western way of warfare.

From trained pilots and maintainers to required infrastructure to a boneyard of spare aircraft, Romania has been working on its transition to the F-16 for nearly a decade.

“Even we struggle at this point, and we started enhancing and getting the F-16 like seven or eight years ago, and we’re still not yet there,” Beraczko said. “We are so close; we are wanting and willing to be there as personnel, as maintenance, as even a force.”

A U.S. Air Force spokesperson said foreign countries seeking to train fighter pilots in the United States would typically begin with a few weeks in the T-6 trainer aircraft before spending a few months flying the faster T-38. Once the training is complete, the pilot can enroll in the basic course for combat pilots.

The majority of the course uses the F-16C model, since most pilots will be flying single-seat aircraft when they return home.

Graduating students reach a wingman level and are expected to continue flying with close supervision for 500 hours.



You have to remember that there are many variables involved in regards to transitioning from one platform to another. Repair crew, maintenance infrastructure, and etc are all part of the pilot's kill chain.

SolarWarden said:

When a supposed military superpower needs to buy Iranian and North Korean arms it says a lot about that nations capability or lack of.

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You are forgetting the fact that Russia is at war with Ukraine, which is being supplied with weapons by at least 40 countries, including all of NATO. Had it not been for the intervention of the US and its vassals, the war in Ukraine would have ended long ago.

Meanwhile: U.S. in talks to buy South Korean ammunition for Ukraine:

Washington wants to buy South Korean artillery shells to send to Ukraine, a U.S. official said on Friday, even as Seoul insisted that the United States must be the ammunition's end user and that its policy against lethal aid for Ukraine is unchanged.

Citing U.S. officials familiar with the deal, the Wall Street Journal said the agreement would involve 100,000 rounds of 155mm artillery rounds that would be delivered to Ukraine.

South Korea's defence ministry, however, said that its position of not providing lethal aid to Ukraine is unchanged and that the negotiations are being conducted "under the premise that the U.S. is the end user.

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LawLeadsToPeace said:

Romania's transition from Mig's to F-16's can give us glimpse of how Ukraine may fare in this theoretical transition:

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And at least Romanian Lancers were modernized with some western systems. The Ukranians are still flying planes as built by the USSR

There are reports of attacks on the Kinburn Peninsula. It's unclear as to what sort of attacks these are or even if they are real.

My bet is artillery only, but there are some surprising claims running around.

During the Russian withdrawal from kherson, a lot of twitter posts showed a massacre of Russian retreating forces and a rout.

Any hard evidence come out of that at all? Many were touting evidence with dark images of artillery battles and the aftermath would be the end of the war and have Putin overthrown. What came of that? Just curious.