Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

[AndrewS]

Yeh, even by their own account, the victory comes with losing hundreds of war planes on the U.S. side.

It's stated as half of the aircraft of the USAF and USN. At a minimum, the aura of US invincibility will be shattered.

You got to ask yourself, where the heck are these planes going to be launched from? There are only a handful of airports in the first island chain or the Philippines close enough to launch planes. They can be bombarded. No surface fleet will dare come close. Only subs will stand a chance. If subs firing missiles from standoff distance, they are of no more use than the islands on the first island chain. If subs firing torpedos, they have to be close and within sight of the Taiwan Strait since that is where the landing fleet will travel. Once the birds are fired, these subs will be hunted down and taken out.

My guess is that this 2026 scenario underestimates the number of missiles China will build.
And it's these missiles which will prevent US airbases and carriers from operating. So a lot more:

DF-17 (mainly for Japan)
DF-26 (mainly for Guam and possibly the Persian Gulf)

and also the first DF-27 for targets 8000km away (eg. Wake, Hawaii, Alaska, Seattle, Australia, Diego Garcia, Europe)

 

[Biscuits]

Could PRC just announce UN support for investigations of US nazi war crimes in both Afghanistan and Iraq, as well as aggression against Iran? TBH, I dont like linking the issues, but this should have been done long ago. PRC needs to grow a backbone.

If that act passes then it means war, it is basically a longer written form of Putin's Feb 24 speech except on China instead of on Ukraine.

But Beijing is much different from Kiev. Instead of waiting for the US soldiers to slowly enter the country in columns and reinforce separatist forces to turn the civil war into a meat grinder, China's strategy will be to separate the US invaders and the rebels using supremacy in strike options and defeat them one after the other.

Just like China once shocked America by being a step ahead in warfare with independent modern squad tactics in Korea, this time they will be shocked again by a new type of warfare. If a not very serious Russia in Ukraine can launch 15k shells a day, I wouldn't be surprised if the PLA can launch at least 50-100k munitions a day at the US Axis, starting with the rebel forces but also at Kadena, Okinawa and Guam. That is a level of strike power US won't come close to matching unless they deploy every USN asset. In Iraq, the invading NATO was only firing about 5k munitions per day.

Beijing can collapse the rebels quickly, move large amounts of strike assets to Taiwan island and stop American amphibious forces before they even land. With at least 1 carrier sunk, no prospect of successful landing on Taiwan and China threatening to start bombing countries who let US launch attacks from their bases, America will have no choice but to sue for peace.

 

[tphuang]

I'm frankly alarmed at how many people are unwilling to talk with KMT. China should talk with everyone, including DPP. Given the cross straits tension, it would be best for everyone to lower that tension. The best path for peace is for a KMT victory in 2024.

Bloomberg article on how Pelosi's trip has damaged US interest.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

My guess is that this 2026 scenario underestimates the number of missiles China will build.
And it's these missiles which will prevent US airbases and carriers from operating. So a lot more:

The problem I have with this is that they are assuming China will attempt a landing from the get go. When Patchwork has pretty well outlined the most logical move is for China to just keep bombarding Taiwan and enforce blockade. and more importantly, that's the path PLA thinks they will take

DF-17 (mainly for Japan)
DF-26 (mainly for Guam and possibly the Persian Gulf)

they don't have the resources to target Persian Gulf with DF-26. They can always go through Pakistan to target Persian Gulf with H-6s. They need a good number of DF-17/26 for that inevitable large US Naval strike group.

If DF-17 is 1/10 the cost of DF-26, I'd totally be in favor of them procuring with as many DF-17s as possible. DF-26 would be good to degrade Guam and other 2nd island chain targets to the point where they are completely offline. After that, DF-17s would be the main anti-ship weapon against approaching carrier groups

and also the first DF-27 for targets 8000km away (eg. Wake, Hawaii, Alaska, Seattle, Australia, Diego Garcia, Europe)

hmm, I wouldn't want to send DF-27s. Once you have missiles going that far, countries are going to have a hard time discerning between conventional and strategic tipped missiles. Don't even think about hitting west coast with ballistic missiles.

 

[A potato]

New Party these days have kicked out those pro-unification people and gone more green. For example here's their most recent offer on how Taiwan Strait can be managed in the future:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Dreamin'

Welp we gotta hope an pro ROC soldiers of ROCAF to join our side.

 

[Abominable]

I'm frankly alarmed at how many people are unwilling to talk with KMT. China should talk with everyone, including DPP. Given the cross straits tension, it would be best for everyone to lower that tension. The best path for peace is for a KMT victory in 2024.

KMT are controlled opposition, even if you overlook that they aren't in power. Talking to them is pointless, if anyone needs to be going to Beijing it's the DPP.

 

[FriedButter]

I'm frankly alarmed at how many people are unwilling to talk with KMT. China should talk with everyone, including DPP. Given the cross straits tension, it would be best for everyone to lower that tension. The best path for peace is for a KMT victory in 2024.

Do you think the KMT going to Beijing isn’t going to be span by the DPP and their CIA propaganda pals in the Media to destroy them? They aren’t gonna win in 2024 and this trip will seal that. Here is the problem. You want China to negotiate with politicians who have a fanatic desire to destroy China. What is there to discuss over? The other side has done everything to show they cannot be trusted with any promises and they have acted in bad faith in any discussions.

 

[tphuang]

Anyhow, a lot of alarming stuff on this thread.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

This is interesting. David Goldman gets interviewed by an America First interviewer and explain patiently why one-China policy is so important and why China is less dependent on trade with America than certain American thinks. And with the comment and this tweet about China making 90% of parts of American Antibiotics, he spells out why America is screwed if it stops trading with China.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1557048885427814403

 

[FriedButter]

Anyhow, a lot of alarming stuff on this thread.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

This is interesting. David Goldman gets interviewed by an America First interviewer and explain patiently why one-China policy is so important and why China is less dependent on trade with America than certain American thinks. And with the comment and this tweet about China making 90% of parts of American Antibiotics, he spells out why America is screwed if it stops trading with China.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1557048885427814403

It will probably go from China -> India -> US. Similar to Russia -> India -> Europe. Quite a bit of US gerenic drugs are imported from India but the supply chain is operated by China. They will probably still get the key materials but at a much higher price unless China and India relations take a nose dive at the same time with the US. Tho they could just limit the key material export to India as well.

 

[W20]

At this point, the best thing would be for the US Navy to blockade the port of San Francisco and the German Navy to blockade the port of Rotterdam, thus saving fuel and making the blockade more effective.

 

[sndef888]

Does anyone have an estimate on how much the Dongfeng missiles cost, and how quickly production can be ramped up? China can create an exclusion zone for american aircraft so long as they have sufficient stocks of missiles to continually degrade airbases, so they'll be critical in any military action over taiwan

DF-15s/PHL-191 can neutralise targets in taiwan, after which PLA aircraft can simply degrade taiwanese airfields with cheap glide bombs

DF-16s can be used for Okinawa up to Kyushu, supplemented by air launched missile strikes

But DF-26 is where it gets tricky. It would take a massive (probably unrealistic) amount of strikes to keep airbases in Honshu/Philippines/Guam non-operational, which means aircraft can still be transferred from the US mainland via Hawaii with in flight refuelling.