Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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latenlazy

Brigadier
The topic of China is a very divisive one among the Taiwanese public. There is no national consensus. There are indeed strong supporters, but, to identify them, you usually need to be more alert to subtle signals to be aware of their pro-China stance. This is because the recent rise in cross-strait tension had made openly pro-mainland political views shunned upon in the mainstream media. The ex mayor of Kaohsiung, (my birthplace) Han Kuo Yu, had his political career basically destroyed by the DPP-leaning media that larped onto his pro-mainland stance, plus some other tactical mistakes on his part.
Pro-China figures would usually couch their views in quite disguised ways. For example, they would usually say something like 'I oppose the CCP, but I am proud of China as a Hua Ren (ethnic, not political, Chinese)' or something like that. In other parts of the world, that may very well be interpreted as anti-China. But in Taiwan, make no mistake, that is a standard signal of one's pan-blue orientation when speaking to someone you don't know that well.
The strongly independence-oriented folks, however, are far more outspoken and feel more leeway to be confrontational, because the mainstream media is supportive of that. They won't feel vulnerable for expressing these views, unless they have business ties to the mainland, of course.
What I am saying is that the anti-China crowd in Taiwan has a tendency to be more outspoken, because they feel emboldened. The more pro-China side tends to be more reserved and less willing to show it. In short, there is a discrepancy between what you see online and the reality. So, try not to be riled up too easily by the DPP-aligned commenters.
Yeah I think what a lot of people from outside the Greater China don’t understand is that when someone says I oppose the CCP but I’m proud of China or proud of being Chinese, what they’re really saying often times is if force comes to shove I can tolerate the CCP for broader national objectives. The key point in that expression is usually “the nation comes first”, not “the CCP is the worst”.
 

56860

Senior Member
Registered Member
Yeah I think what a lot of people from outside the Greater China don’t understand is that when someone says I oppose the CCP but I’m proud of China or proud of being Chinese, what they’re really saying often times is if force comes to shove I can tolerate the CCP for broader national objectives. The key point in that expression is usually “the nation comes first”, not “the CCP is the worst”.
40+ consecutive years of the CCP being far and away the single most competent governing entity in human history isn't enough to warrant your support? Then I don't know what is. Without the the CCP, there would be no New China. That's not just a song, it's a fact.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
I'm frankly alarmed at how many people are unwilling to talk with KMT. China should talk with everyone, including DPP. Given the cross straits tension, it would be best for everyone to lower that tension. The best path for peace is for a KMT victory in 2024.

Bloomberg article on how Pelosi's trip has damaged US interest.
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The problem I have with this is that they are assuming China will attempt a landing from the get go. When Patchwork has pretty well outlined the most logical move is for China to just keep bombarding Taiwan and enforce blockade. and more importantly, that's the path PLA thinks they will take


they don't have the resources to target Persian Gulf with DF-26. They can always go through Pakistan to target Persian Gulf with H-6s. They need a good number of DF-17/26 for that inevitable large US Naval strike group.

If DF-17 is 1/10 the cost of DF-26, I'd totally be in favor of them procuring with as many DF-17s as possible. DF-26 would be good to degrade Guam and other 2nd island chain targets to the point where they are completely offline. After that, DF-17s would be the main anti-ship weapon against approaching carrier groups


hmm, I wouldn't want to send DF-27s. Once you have missiles going that far, countries are going to have a hard time discerning between conventional and strategic tipped missiles. Don't even think about hitting west coast with ballistic missiles.

The worst thing that could happen is a KMT victory in 24, but then again that won’t happen.
 

Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
hmm, I wouldn't want to send DF-27s. Once you have missiles going that far, countries are going to have a hard time discerning between conventional and strategic tipped missiles. Don't even think about hitting west coast with ballistic missiles.
That's why the No First Use policy exists despite a lot of people here think it is some form of weakness, it's not, it's a surprise tool that will help us later.
Yeah I think what a lot of people from outside the Greater China don’t understand is that when someone says I oppose the CCP but I’m proud of China or proud of being Chinese, what they’re really saying often times is if force comes to shove I can tolerate the CCP for broader national objectives. The key point in that expression is usually “the nation comes first”, not “the CCP is the worst”.
sorry but its a little harder to take ppl serious when they dont even know how the ruling party is spelled. It's like an American saying "I oppose the ICA but I'm proud of being American"
 

Topazchen

Junior Member
Registered Member
Pelosi's visit was honestly godsent. It gave China a new baseline for military activity around Taiwan, ie exercising east of the island and missile overflights will become a new norm.

I'd love to see those PLA artificial islands pop up East of the Taiwan and complete and encirclement.

Pelosi thought she was doing Taiwan favours but China's was handed a fantastic opportunity to squeeze the renegade province.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Does anyone have an estimate on how much the Dongfeng missiles cost, and how quickly production can be ramped up? China can create an exclusion zone for american aircraft so long as they have sufficient stocks of missiles to continually degrade airbases, so they'll be critical in any military action over taiwan

DF-15s/PHL-191 can neutralise targets in taiwan, after which PLA aircraft can simply degrade taiwanese airfields with cheap glide bombs

DF-16s can be used for Okinawa up to Kyushu, supplemented by air launched missile strikes

But DF-26 is where it gets tricky. It would take a massive (probably unrealistic) amount of strikes to keep airbases in Honshu/Philippines/Guam non-operational, which means aircraft can still be transferred from the US mainland via Hawaii with in flight refuelling.

Large numbers of DF-100 and DF-17s (2000? km range) are suited for Japan.

If DF-17s are $2 million each, that is comparable to Tomahawks and JASSM-ER/XRs at $1.5-2 Million
Note how the US has 4000 Tomahawks and 1000? JASSM-ER/XR
So they could buy at least 2000 DF-17s to keep Japanese airfields non-operational and also any naval ships that get within 2000km.

As for the DF-26, I think the only realistic target is Guam and the carriers.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Anyhow, a lot of alarming stuff on this thread.

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This is interesting. David Goldman gets interviewed by an America First interviewer and explain patiently why one-China policy is so important and why China is less dependent on trade with America than certain American thinks. And with the comment and this tweet about China making 90% of parts of American Antibiotics, he spells out why America is screwed if it stops trading with China.

They also say that US can cut Chinese food imports. Do they not realize that China is a net food exporter? Who cuts off who?
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Large numbers of DF-100 and DF-17s (2000? km range) are suited for Japan.

If DF-17s are $2 million each, that is comparable to Tomahawks and JASSM-ER/XRs at $1.5-2 Million
Note how the US has 4000 Tomahawks and 1000? JASSM-ER/XR
So they could buy at least 2000 DF-17s to keep Japanese airfields non-operational and also any naval ships that get within 2000km.

As for the DF-26, I think the only realistic target is Guam and the carriers.
This is just my layman's understanding but I think you're right on cost estimates. A DF-17 is just a solid rocket with a glide body. It is difficult to machine and uses exotic materials, sure. How difficult is a turbofan though, which is what the Tomahawk uses? At the end of the day the DF-17 motor is a tube filled with propellent, while the Tomahawk motor is a turbofan that has to be intricately assembled.

Wouldn't the cost of machining difficult materials for the glide body balance with the need for machining small precision parts and the manual assembly of a turbofan?
 
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