Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

[Minm]

Once PLAN ships regularly sail within less than 12 nm from the coast of Taiwan, it might be much easier to start a surprise invasion. The pro independence people always say that an invasion can only happen during certain months and the ships will have to make it across 200km hostile waters. This won't be the case anymore in the future. Once naval activity close to the shore is normalised and there's no response from Taiwan, a few ships might just land at the beach during the night and the PLA will have a beachhead at the beginning of the war already. Let the US celebrate their pictures and keep moving Chinese troops closer and closer to Taiwan island

 

[xlitter]

China intercepts foreign planes all the time, even stealth fighters! Which makes the inaction baffling.

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Maybe it's for the last condition: unified thinking！

 

[Barefoot]

They trolled just fine before the Internet.

The German trolling with their version of

We're Going to Hang out the Washing on the Siegfried Line​

A mocking parody was written shortly after the

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by a German songwriter, with translated lines that include:

(I guess all i can say to that is "lol")

Yeah, my boy, you thought it would be so easy
At the great Washing Day on the German Rhine.
Oh, and you really filled your trousers, didn't you?
And when the German Washing Day is over,
Man, you won't need any more washing.

 

[LawLeadsToPeace]

Too much emotion in this thread. Mods should take some actions.

It's pretty clear now that China's planned response all along has been an immediate large-scale, surround-the-island military exercise right after Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. This is actually a well thought out response, demonstrating both the restraint to such a symbolic but rather meaningless provocation and the strength of military power sending a signal that China can take over Taiwan if necessary.

China has never said anything close to shooting down Pelosi's plane or even intercepting her plane. But clearly, it has managed the PR extremely poorly, raising the expectation of many that some direct face-off between Chinese and US militaries is likely. I had my doubts that such dramatic measures were in the cards, given the non-military nature of her visit and the (non-)deployment of Chinese naval and air force around Taiwan. In the end, I was almost convinced that the Chinese would at least do some interception regardless if they would eventually let her land in Taiwan or not, because of all the fury, bluster and hysteria emitting from various Chinese channels, official or unofficial ones (after all, it is hardly unprecedented that Chinese military aircraft intercept foreign military aircraft). The resulting impression is that China is all bark but no bite. This, again, demonstrates the poor skills of managing public perceptions by China.

A couple of years ago, I said on SDF that China would need large-scale, joint-operation exercises around Taiwan to simulate the invasion of Taiwan. It's hard to do that during normal times. An occasion like now affords such an opportunity. China needs to do this for the necessary training, particularly in a near-real environment, every once in a while. This kind of exercises will also serve the purpose of desensitizing Taiwan and other countries, until the time comes to convert such exercise into real operation.

China has the military strength to gain the upper hand against the US forces deployed or based nearby around Taiwan now. But it would be extremely unwise to seek a direct military confrontation for this visit. It will take a lot more to get there, individually or cumulatively. But I have no doubt this incident will have long-lasting consequences.

The issue is that there is a very high possibility that other countries will send official delegations to Taiwan which would legitimize Taiwan’s international status. Yes, China’s objective is to prevent the secession of Taiwan, but in order to do so, Taiwan needs to be illegitimate on the international stage. That’s why China spent so much time to persuade other countries to cut ties with Taiwan and block Taiwan’s entry into international organizations.

So with that in mind, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see more and more countries sending official delegations to Taiwan. I believe that the US will eventually push for a UN observer status. That is basically de facto secession and literally one step away from true secession.

 

[weig2000]

This raises an interesting question: China would also like to have extensive training for targets beyond Taiwan throughout the first and second island chains for the same reason. Would it be realistic to expect exercises like this near Guam in the future?

Right now, PLA doesn't have sufficient assets to do exercise on large-scale around Guam or close to 2nd island chain. But when they do - I have no doubt they will in the not too distant future - they will do it. You need at least a full-complement CSG headed by 003 to do that, along with underwater assets.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

The issue is that there is a very high possibility that other countries will send official delegations to Taiwan which would legitimize Taiwan’s international status. Yes, China’s objective is to prevent the secession of Taiwan, but in order to do so, Taiwan should be illegitimate on the international stage. That’s why China spent so much time to persuade other countries to cut ties with Taiwan and block Taiwan’s entry into international organizations.

So with that in mind, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see more and more countries sending official delegations to Taiwan. Eventually I believe that the US will push for a UN observer status. That is literally one step away from true secession.

This is all performative art. There is no "legitimizing" Taiwan on the international stage because the moment Taiwan declares independence is the moment the PLARF rockets rain down. What's keeping the situation locked in this perdition is China's strength and what will take it out of perdition is China's increased strength.

This has nothing to do with emotion or "legitimacy" or any such thing. This is a simple calculation: Is China strong enough to forcibly expel the US from the Pacific. If yes, start war. If no, grow stronger.

 

[dingyibvs]

You know, the entire basis of my professional credibility partially rests on my position that the PRC is a prudent, tactful organization for the most part, and that they would only initiate hostilities while in an advantageous position, at a local maximum in US-PRC force disparity.

If anything, the fact that the guys up top didn't give in to the pretty blatant provocation we just dangled in front of them, which would have resulted in hostilities commencing at a time not of their own choosing; and that they seem to be using the opportunity to conduct extremely extensive, realistic training at potentially up to the Group Army echelon, as well as stress-testing their mobilization infrastructure; well, that I actually sorta find more concerning than if they really did turn out to be just another cookie cutter arrogant rising power, chomping at the bit to stroke its ego.

I don't us folks on this side of the pond should be laughing.

Heh, chomping at the bit to stroke his ego is exactly what a lot of posters are doing. If Pelosi insisted on going, there is no realistic way for China to stop it. As China has mentioned before, the response to this change to the status quo would be to further change the status quo to its benefit. Whether that means regular intrusions of Taiwanese airspace or territorial seas or a full on invasion, I don't know, but it'd be absurd for China to start a war with the US as a knee jerk reaction rather than at a time of its choosing.

I think very few people seriously believed that the plane would be shot down or a full blown war, but no plaaf shadowing it even, and after so much warning was given, means that it is certain that something along the lines of Japanese, Indians, Aussies and Brits will have their foreign ministers in Taipei shaking hands with Hong kong rioters while talking about uyghur and tibetan "genocide" and cutting ribbons at Taiwan representative office opening ceremonies will happen, and if China makes any warnings it will just get laughed at.

What's the point of shadowing if you're not prepared to shoot it down? The story will just be how brave Pelosi is to fly into Taiwan despite PLAAF harassment.

 

[NiuBiDaRen]

The issue is that there is a very high possibility that other countries will send official delegations to Taiwan which would legitimize Taiwan’s international status. Yes, China’s objective is to prevent the secession of Taiwan, but in order to do so, Taiwan needs to be illegitimate on the international stage. That’s why China spent so much time to persuade other countries to cut ties with Taiwan and block Taiwan’s entry into international organizations.

So with that in mind, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see more and more countries sending official delegations to Taiwan. I believe that the US will eventually push for a UN observer status. That is basically de facto secession and literally one step away from true secession.

Bomb all the runways so no plane can ever take off from Taiwan.

 

[Biscuits]

Once PLAN ships regularly sail within less than 12 nm from the coast of Taiwan, it might be much easier to start a surprise invasion. The pro independence people always say that an invasion can only happen during certain months and the ships will have to make it across 200km hostile waters. This won't be the case anymore in the future. Once naval activity close to the shore is normalised and there's no response from Taiwan, a few ships might just land at the beach during the night and the PLA will have a beachhead at the beginning of the war already. Let the US celebrate their pictures and keep moving Chinese troops closer and closer to Taiwan island

Doing completely normal routine exercises within 12 nm of Chinese Taipei would be the most toothless response possible now that would probably create a public backlash that severely hurt Xi's chances at reelection or at least force him to accept compromises to take more hawks into his lineup.

Still, its better than just sending token force to intercept Pelosi without shooting her down.

However, I think in the past, Beijing generally didn't commit exercises within 12 nm of Taiwan island. So even that might be a new first.

 

[escobar]

The issue is that there is a very high possibility that other countries will send official delegations to Taiwan which would legitimize Taiwan’s international status. Yes, China’s objective is to prevent the secession of Taiwan, but in order to do so, Taiwan should be illegitimate on the international stage. That’s why China spent so much time to persuade other countries to cut ties with Taiwan and block Taiwan’s entry into international organizations.

So with that in mind, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see more and more countries sending official delegations to Taiwan. Eventually I believe that the US will push for a UN observer status. That is literally one step away from true secession.

It is not today CN has weakened its own deterrence against country sending official delegations to Taiwan but in the past with their empty useless warning. But pelosi visit will accelerate this trend