Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Speaking of which, are there any further news on the closure of airspace above the Taiwan Strait? From when until when would the closure of the airspace be conducted?

Most importantly, is that news real at all?
This is ineffective because the average person doesn't hear about it. Something that only the rulers know is not as effective as something that both average person and rulers know.

If mainstream media refuses to cover this or relegates it to tiny specialist news, the end result is, US won a huge propaganda victory with no response, which leads to economic gain and puts up new military roadblocks.
 

Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
Never. She will not be able to leave Taiwan.

She will pass away while on Taiwanese land, when Taiwan has already belonged to China.

It's a one-way ticket for Pelosi.
There's no benefit in dick measuring by holding captive a decrepit ghoul. If Pelosi is there, it makes America involved, its better for America not to be involved, as the chances of escalation is lower.

America is spitting in China's face by sending their represantants to talk with rebels, instead of swatting the spit out of the air, China can opt to just spit back in America's face by militarily changing the status quo of the straits, hours after Pelosi leaves, showing the world that while she visited, the visit was utterly useless in preventing PLA control of the area.
 

RedMetalSeadramon

Junior Member
Registered Member
One of the islands is the way to go. Exercises are just tours in the end with no real gains, its like US with their freedom of navigation where they sail around and smash their submarines into rocks while PLA plays tennis on the islands.

Use this opportunity to make some concrete gains, there are enough assets mobilized to manage any military escalation.
 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
Too much emotion in this thread. Mods should take some actions.

It's pretty clear now that China's planned response all along has been an immediate large-scale, surround-the-island military exercise right after Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. This is actually a well thought out response, demonstrating both the restraint to such a symbolic but rather meaningless provocation and the strength of military power sending a signal that China can take over Taiwan if necessary.

China has never said anything close to shooting down Pelosi's plane or even intercepting her plane. But clearly, it has managed the PR extremely poorly, raising the expectation of many that some direct face-off between Chinese and US militaries is likely. I had my doubts that such dramatic measures were in the cards, given the non-military nature of her visit and the (non-)deployment of Chinese naval and air force around Taiwan. In the end, I was almost convinced that the Chinese would at least do some interception regardless if they would eventually let her land in Taiwan or not, because of all the fury, bluster and hysteria emitting from various Chinese channels, official or unofficial ones (after all, it is hardly unprecedented that Chinese military aircraft intercept foreign military aircraft). The resulting impression is that China is all bark but no bite. This, again, demonstrates the poor skills of managing public perceptions by China.

A couple of years ago, I said on SDF that China would need large-scale, joint-operation exercises around Taiwan to simulate the invasion of Taiwan. It's hard to do that during normal times. An occasion like now affords such an opportunity. China needs to do this for the necessary training, particularly in a near-real environment, every once in a while. This kind of exercises will also serve the purpose of desensitizing Taiwan and other countries, until the time comes to convert such exercise into real operation.

China has the military strength to gain the upper hand against the US forces deployed or based nearby around Taiwan now. But it would be extremely unwise to seek a direct military confrontation for this visit. It will take a lot more to get there, individually or cumulatively. But I have no doubt this incident will have long-lasting consequences.
This raises an interesting question: China would also like to have extensive training for targets beyond Taiwan throughout the first and second island chains for the same reason. Would it be realistic to expect exercises like this near Guam in the future?
 

Helius

Senior Member
Registered Member
Definitely people are too emotional about "national embarrassment" or whatever. Yes, definitely it is an embarrassment (for now)

But looking at what has happened in the US in the last few years, riot in the capital, dozens of kids murdered in a single incident, a million dead from disease, yet the government doesn't give 2 serious craps about it.

Honestly, my favourite response would be if they had hacked Paul Pelosi and had some dirty laundry on him. This sort of stuff just sends western media into a frenzy. It would also discredit his wife and suddenly it just looks like shaking hands with another crooked Washington dealer.
Hong Kong 2019 was also an embarrassment. China had issued plenty of serious threats back then, too.

Remember when the PLA/Armed Police were amassing in Shenzhen that borders HK during the riots? What came out of that little manoeuvre? Did the mainland declare martial law on the city like everybody was clamouring for?

Look at how HK got cleaned up since then, and the city now firmly in China's grasp, all of that without a single mainland boot stepping even an inch into HK like Trump and Pompeo dared China to do. Was China a paper tiger then?

If there's one thing the Chinese government has demonstrated time and again, particularly the current government, no need to even look at past ones, is that their modus to crisis management has consistently been measured, calculated and rational, and not placate to the whims of emotionally-charged voices within and without.

Acting out of embarrassment only serves to embarrass oneself even more. Some peeps on here really need to chillax, check their urge for instant gratification and observe what China does in the coming weeks and months. China WILL do something, that much is an absolute certainty, and whatever transpires from it will just as certainly lead to permanent change in state of affairs that would further strengthen China's interests and that of the Chinese people.
 

Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
No, you should fuck off this forum; every person can lash out when angry but it takes a wise leader to know and stick to the most rational and beneficial plan, especially with a horde of angry imbecile keyboard warriors biting at his toe nails and ass hairs like you.

While the US isn't going to just collapse, it is declining in comparison to China and its shit-stirring on the global stage is akin to the death throes of an animal with a fatal wound. Never will you see one more lively and some can say that since it is moving more that when it was just sitting there eating, it must be stronger. It is clear to everyone here that this is the US playing its last useless cards just to piss people off because the only country making real progress in the global race is China.
If Xi stays or not its for the people to decide after the current political sessions finish.

Performance in this crisis is of course important, but it has barely started yet, so we will evaluate how China, and by extension, Xi and his cabinet responds as things go on.
Just as how Russia was moving in military hardware under the guise of "routine exercises", China is also doing the same thing, they will continue their "routine exercises" till enough military hardware has been put in place for an invasion.
This is basically the gist of it, although it is not an invasion, just reinforcing Taiwan island against foreign aggression. But I don't believe the PLA will go as far as to destroy all the ROC at once. Instead, it will only be a few islands, which will help China fortify the straits in the long term.
 
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