Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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xypher

Senior Member
Registered Member
Regarding the question whether it was wise for China to escalate, we can settle it right now.

Technically speaking Pelosi visiting is not going to change anything and China can take the insult. However through CCP's own decision they decided to confront instead of staying quiet. They are the one voiced military response. It must mean through their calculation it is worth a confrontation instead of "wait another 5 years". We will see how it plays out.

I trust CCP know what they are doing. They are not being forced into action. They are prepared.
Exactly. People pretending there that the US is trying to mastermind the war are deluded, they definitely did not expect such a strong response from China (probably expected the usual warnings) but cannot turn back without losing their face and Americans are extremely sensitive to that. If China wanted to, they could have easily ignored Pelosi's visit and said their usual stuff (urging to respect One China principle etc.), nothing would change. The fact that they started pushing back heavily, means that they think they are ready. We will see whether that's true or not soon enough.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Well d’uh pretty much covers it.

At this rate Pelosi will be allowed to land in Taiwan only to find a PLA detail there waiting for her with zip ties.

But on a more serious note, it looks increasingly likely that Beijing’s response to Pelosi’s visit might be more maximum than even I expected.

They may well choose to let her live rather than shoot her down, only to go home and explain to the American people why she triggered armed reunification for lolz despite everyone lining up to tell her the risks and advising her against the trip.

Basically I think as soon as Pelosi’s plane crosses within 12nm of Taiwan island, one final warning will be issued to turn around. After a predetermined further line has been crossed, her PLAAF escorts would pull away and burn like hell away as the PLA unleashes Shock and Awe 2.0 on Taiwan’s defences. At that point she can land and burn or turn back for home.

Biden has an easy scapegoat and off-ramp if he doesn’t want to commit to a war he cannot win and heap all the blame on Nancy.
 

Sardaukar20

Captain
Registered Member
A war at this moment is very well on China's timetable.
How do you know? This is WW3 we are talking about. Is this a decision that you can make based on emotion?

One, why would China want the US to stay out of the reunification war? So it can stay comformably at home and rally its allies to sanction China? Drag the US into this war, let it suffer the casulties and consequences of the war. If China is hurt by this war, the US has to be hurt too.
Again. This is WW3 we are taking about. Why make this decision based on emotion? Which is easier to control for China? A reunification war? Or WW3?

Yes, Chinese people on both sides will be hurt and killed in a reunification war. But have you ever thought about how many more Chinese will be hurt and killed if China provokes the US and its allies into WW3?

The US will already be hurt really bad when Taiwan falls. It is a major strategic defeat for the US in Asia. That on top of a full scale Chinese diplomatic and economic war. This will hurt the US where it hurts most. The foundations of it's pride and image as an unshakable Superpower, holding what's left of the Western world together.

Two, everyone knows the US is bluffing over its commitment already, when they left the Kurds, left Afgan, and stayed out of Ukraine. China gains nothing by proving it again.
China does gain alot from calling the US's bluff without WW3. China gets Taiwan with less complications, it saves Chinese lives, and it puts the final nail into the coffin of US hegemony in Asia. This is the last bluff that the US can make. Unlike Afghan, Kurds, or Ukraine, Taiwan is a household name in the US and Asia. Since 1949, Taiwan can only exists because of the US. If the US cannot protect this historic piece of their hegemony, what else can they ever truly protect?

Three, China can't finish off Taiwan independence sensation, if the US is still the global hegemony. Even if China forcibly took Taiwan, it would just be like HK again with civil unrest in decades to come. But if China defeats the US military in west pacific, then a "peaceful" reunification with Taiwan is very sound. Taiwan was never the key problem in cross-strait relationship, the US is.
US's grip on global hegemony will severely weaken with the loss of Taiwan. It is one more promise broken too many. Things will never be the same.

So what if they do another HK on Taiwan? Was the 2019-2020 HK colour revolution successful? That happened when China was taking a hands off approach with HK. No more. When China takes Taiwan, there will be no more hands off approach. Those days of the US messing about in China's internal affairs, it's over.

Why bother if there are Taiwanese not happy about the change in government. That won't change even if China is at war with the US. Worse still, with the US being an active war participant, they could actually use military force to return to Taiwan. Anyway, if China takes Taiwan by force. The island will be under martial law. There will be no more Taiwanese, and Western media to watch. The DPP members and the radicals will be rounded up without mercy. They will be forced to go through a reeducation program or die. Violent protests can be crushed by military force. Everything happening in Taiwan will be under full PLA control. If the US is not at war with China, the most that they can do is sanctions and diplomatic rebuke.
 

Kaeshmiri

Junior Member
Registered Member
Exactly. People pretending there that the US is trying to mastermind the war are deluded, they definitely did not expect such a strong response from China (probably expected the usual warnings) but cannot turn back without losing their face and Americans are extremely sensitive to that. If China wanted to, they could have easily ignored Pelosi's visit and said their usual stuff (urging to respect One China principle etc.), nothing would change. The fact that they started pushing back heavily, means that they think they are ready. We will see whether that's true or not soon enough.
Youre right. When this trip was announced i barely saw any Western Media reporting it extensively. Only after Global Times and other State media outlets started talking of blowing Pelosis plane did this snowball into a major issue.

Either China was bluffing and US has called the bluff.
Or China is determined to walk the talk.

It will be seen in few hours which one is true.
 
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