Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

[ZeEa5KPul]

"Concerns grow over China nuclear reactors shrouded in mystery | Nuclear Energy News | Al Jazeera"

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The reason these breeder reactors are shrouded in mystery is that China, which had been transparent about its civilian plutonium programme until recently, stopped annual voluntary declarations to the International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA] on its stocks of civilian plutonium in 2017 and has not added the reactors to the agency’s database to date.

Civilian plutonium is unsuitable for nuclear weapons. Unless China has found a way to separate Pu-239 from Pu-240 and the rest of the junk, that stockpile is useless. Now, it might well be possible or even feasible to do this - there are proposed technologies like laser isotope separation - but such technologies are very closely guarded state secrets. We haven't seen any demonstration of plutonium isotope separation, so we can't blithely assume that China (or anyone else) has this technology.

That China stopped declaring that stockpile is at best very weak evidence that it intends to use it in weapons in some way.

 

[jwnz]

china 1000 km from his coast can engage multiple cvbg it has about 200 h6 bomber and hundreds of heavy fighters

Yes, I guess China could possibly single handedly handle all 11 CSGs at once, but only if Japan and India don't join in against China and enable the US to launch attacks from their shores.

So I don't think China can win a conventional war against the US and allies yet.

I don't factor in SK, as NK will handle it, nor I factor it Russia as Putin's too busy in Europe.

 

[LST]

US has waken up, they're expediting 6th gen fighters, focusing on key technologies to stay ahead (recent example of Semiconductor subsidies) abd trying to limit China in areas it has edge in like cutting down Huawei, arguably which would have been no. 1 mobile manufacturer today but now is out of the picture due to 5g and other restrictions. No Chinese corporation will be allowed to become global leaders in critical industries and they will be hit hard under pretext of 'national security'.

Totally agree. Going forward. gaining any leads over US is not going to be as easy as in the past.

Anyway, I have come to this conclusion - if China decided to go kinetic, that means they have calculated that this is a fight worth fighting and that they would win with an acceptable cost/price. It may not be an ideal timing to them but in many a time, timings are forced upon you. Waiting for a better time in the future doesn't mean China will be in a better position vis-a-vis US because there are just too many moving parts to this. For one, the West indeed have depth in technological foundation that China should not underestimate. Also, what if there's a Western technological renaissance coming our way - you know, the same awakening and rise-up kind of spirits that have lifted China. To me, I would prefer any war to be deferred with the hope that circumstances change for the better and the war is eventually not fought.

 

[Lime]

China still remains some Pu-239 and U-235 which means they can product nuclear warhead in a short time.
Maybe they have been doing this in recent years.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

Actually yes, it's extremely reasonable to expect the majority of those to be decoys. Each and every one would have to be disabled or destroyed in order to eliminate the PLARF's second-strike capability from remaining silos, which reduces single salvo deliverable yield to other counterforce targets. Blowing up nuclear silos is really hard, and they serve as an extremely effective "sponge," imposing serious virtual attrition on salvo targeting and weaponeering profiles.

If decoy silos are convincing enough, maybe China should build more silos than the US+UK+France having nuclear warheads?

 

[clockwork]

Actually yes, it's extremely reasonable to expect the majority of those to be decoys. Each and every one would have to be disabled or destroyed in order to eliminate the PLARF's second-strike capability from remaining silos, which reduces single salvo deliverable yield to other counterforce targets. Blowing up nuclear silos is really hard, and they serve as an extremely effective "sponge," imposing serious virtual attrition on salvo targeting and weaponeering profiles.

It's possible they don't fill all of them, if extremely disappointing to me, but it'd be inconsistent with US & Russian silo deployment. AFAIK their constructed silos are all filled.

 

[9dashline]

Totally agree. Going forward. gaining any leads over US is not going to be as easy as in the past.

Anyway, I have come to this conclusion - if China decided to go kinetic, that means they have calculated that this is a fight worth fighting and that they would win with an acceptable cost/price. It may not be an ideal timing to them but in many a time, timings are forced upon you. Waiting for a better time in the future doesn't mean China will be in a better position vis-a-vis US because there are just too many moving parts to this. For one, the West indeed have depth in technological foundation that China should not underestimate. Also, what if there's a Western technological renaissance coming our way - you know, the same awakening and rise-up kind of spirits that have lifted China. To me, I would prefer any war to be deferred with the hope that circumstances change for the better and the war is eventually not fought.

Its also possible both sides calculate they have an advantage in this moment and context, but of course reality of actual combact and the laws of physics will be the ultimate decider and arbitrator...

Its like having two AI Go engines, even if one engine is objectively stronger than another, in some positions both engines believe they have the advantage and upper hand ..

I think this is whats happening here

 

[9dashline]

If decoy silos are convincing enough, maybe China should build more silos than the US+UK+France having nuclear warheads?

They have analysts in CIA whose sole job is to decipher which ones are fake and real ....

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1554261240117022720

 

[TK3600]

Regarding the question whether it was wise for China to escalate, we can settle it right now.

Technically speaking Pelosi visiting is not going to change anything and China can take the insult. However through CCP's own decision they decided to confront instead of staying quiet. They are the one voiced military response. It must mean through their calculation it is worth a confrontation instead of "wait another 5 years". We will see how it plays out.

I trust CCP know what they are doing. They are not being forced into action. They are prepared.