Indian Economics thread.

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mossen

mossen

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China made a major mistake by initiating the 2020 border crisis. Modi was essentially pushed into the arms of the US.

I am skeptical that India will ever match China but I am not a doomer either. Some Indian intellectual of a bygone era came up with a pithy slogan which I still think matches the situation: "India will disappoint the optimist but confound its pessimists".

It will continue to rise at a leisurely pace, never coming to equal with China but will surpass Japan by the early 2030s at the latest and continue to climb thereafter. India will never be seriously threatened. Even today, it is largely secure and the paranoid fears of its military vis-a-vis a "two front war" is largely unfounded IMO.
 
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Chandragupt

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ougoah said:
They can afford to travel on =/= can afford to travel on, arrive in, spend thousands on accommodation and food, spend money on travel within a country, buy stuff, entry fees for whatever etc general spending.

Less than 10% of the entire Indian population can afford to do this in even China let alone more expensive destinations. Unless they want to spend unwise levels of their savings to do this.

As for racism, only recently more east Asian looking Indians were being attacked by other Indians just for looking Chinese. That's how bad it is. No dark skinned Indian or dark skinned person in China was violently attacked because they resemble an Indian. There's racism everywhere but Indians have been violently racist and Indian racism is another level entirely. The racism against Muslims (not technically race but intolerance due to assigned identity) and Asian looking people are just on another level of frequency and brutality than literally anywhere else. While some ignorant and racist elderly Chinese person may have outdated opinions on certain group, they aren't going to attack you because of that and they're not even really going to talk to you and abuse you verbally. In India plenty of Chinese tourists report verbal abuse and some report assault. As backwards as China can be in these departments, India really is on another level. White tourists will probably have very different experiences lol.
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What’s your opinion on Nepal should China extend its railway network to india Nepal border
And people living on indo Nepal borders are not east asian looking (except for Sikkim) but they’re less racist towards mongoloid faces compared to rest of india though the people in Uttarakhand province of india are racist towards east asian faces
 
Bellum_Romanum

Bellum_Romanum

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ougoah said:
To expand on this point, I'm not referring to stuff India already does for itself e.g. car manufacturing which it does. I'm referring only to stuff it needs to import to sustain life, business, and the functioning of society.

The reason the American trade war on China failed - trade deficit after trade war widened YoY, US administrations started dismantling tariffs one by one, and American manufacturing industry NOT having become reawakened by Trump, because like I said back in 2018, that's not how trade works.

As for Indians replacing imported goods they absolutely can do it. They have the brains and even the organisational power to achieve this because it honestly isn't even hard. They're also in the prime economic position to exploit it. They have excess labour, resourceful people (among the village idiots), extremely cheap labour. But despite 6 decades of being in this position, they've failed to do this and properly pull it off. I'm not sure if it's a western influence that is rather stealthy in preventing and disrupting genuine efforts and siphoning off money back to the west (which btw is happening and has been happening)... it's like the Indians are still paying interest for being victim. Their wealthiest siphon off money and continue growing wealthier. The Indian living standards haven't really moved at all for 70 years. The only difference in living standards is a result of technology improving over time. Instead of excessive poverty and hopelessness, there's now excessive poverty and smartphones. While it takes a western consumer two week's worth of savings to buy a flagship phone, an average India would require many months of savings to buy a the lowest entry level of a budget phone.

They can be making their own brands of white goods and everyday consumer items and exploit the advantages of their current situation but relatively little progress is made. Every time they simply celebrate a new foreign brand opening up a manufacturing line in India. Then nothing. The route to learning, mastering, then copying something isn't even taken. It takes decades for one's industry to develop through those cycles and India has yet to even begin the learning phase. Any half competent person leaves if they can.

Then there's the whole building up of infrastructure to support the revitalisation of industry. It is built on logistics. Very little effort there as well. Anyway if they like self deception, they are very welcome to it as other nations outcompete India in their niche ways e.g. Vietnam, Bangladesh, Philippines, Thailand.

I don't see why there shouldn't be Indian made furniture, clothing, consumer goods, cheaper electronics, components and everything in between being sourced from India. It has far cheaper labour than China and even many others. And yet there's more made in Vietnam and Bangladesh in the West than there is made in India.
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My new balance boxers are Made in India though so maybe that's a trend that can bode well for India.
 
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Chandragupt

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Lethe said:
UN WPP 2019 Medium projection series has India's population peaking around 2055-2060 at 1.65bn.

Next edition of UN WPP is due to be released in June.
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Total Fertility rate of india has fallen below 2.1 and it will keep falling though the muslims in india are reproducing at a very fast pace but still Indian population touching 1.65 billion is higly unlikely
 
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ougoah

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Chandragupt said:
What’s your opinion on Nepal should China extend its railway network to india Nepal border
And people living on indo Nepal borders are not east asian looking (except for Sikkim) but they’re less racist towards mongoloid faces compared to rest of india though the people in Uttarakhand province of india are racist towards east asian faces
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I don't know much about whether these two countries should create a railway route.

I hope China and Nepal can be cooperative, find mutually beneficial endeavors and continue current peaceful relations. I think any engagement with Nepal by China would have India in the back of its mind. India is something China really doesn't want to engage with. It's too full of nonsense and roundabout bullshittery. Like I think go work with some Indians and it'll become apparent that so much energy is really wasted with talking nonsense and a lot more other forms of nonsense that's, without being overly rude, often a waste of time and some weird power struggle you aren't even aware they are engaging you in. Of course there are sensible Indians out there who are nothing like that but for China, it really should simply avoid anything to do with India even if and when it talks and works for you, these people could easily turn against you at any moment.

India wants to be independent and I encourage that and hope they continue being properly independent but in this struggle, they are trying to leverage what they can from everyone. Which is understandable but means they cannot be relied upon even if relations turn good between China and India I hope China doesn't get close to India. Nothing good comes from that. Let each other be, hopefully border disputes get settled with demarcation. These people are so full of it sometimes you just want to go okay okay whatever have whatever you want just shut up and leave me alone.

Nepal had plenty of Indian political influence. There's really not much point for China to engage with Nepal apart from usual forming of good relations. Just enhancing tourism etc and I don't think there's much else between the two?

Nepalese who are politically inclined in certain ways may carry dislike or hatred for Chinese people but overall, it would certainly be friendlier than Indians overall.

I think it's best for China to let the West have the Indians on their side. You cannot leverage benefits without a price to pay. If India really starts taking off and gets to the level of China now, the Western world will bring down the full weight of their duplicity and the Indians will engage in trashtalking with the runner up experts in the world's greatest trashtalking fest lol.
 
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ougoah

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Chandragupt said:
Total Fertility rate of india has fallen below 2.1 and it will keep falling though the muslims in india are reproducing at a very fast pace but still Indian population touching 1.65 billion is higly unlikely
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At least they're close to 2 and overall surely over 2?

China is barely above 1 in birth rate. It's not much better than Japan at this point. West is boosting through immigration and they're taking (generally speaking lol not always) the best people - educated professionals etc. India's potential strength is in its population. They need proper organisation though and democracy lol... yeah good luck with that scam the western world fooled everyone with. Democracy basically just means the wealthy powers and their elites can put whoever they want in control and if not, then corrupt whoever is in charge. You work for them and they own you. Autocracies are shit but democracy is a step worse if you're not Anglo nation or at least European which means you earn at least racially based respect. Good luck getting that in real terms beyond empty platitudes and thoughts and prayers kind of bs.
 
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